Translated material
Third wheel
Parliamentary elections will not calm the situation in Ukraine
Pay and campaignThe streets of Ukrainian cities are filled with thousands of billboards with giant images of President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko in national dress. Everyone promises the country prosperity. And this is a sure sign of the impending early parliamentary elections scheduled for September 30 .
Democracy reigns in the Ukrainian media: pay and campaign as much as you like. Although the leaders of the race - the presidential bloc "Our Ukraine - People's Self-Defense" (NUNS), the Party of Regions, the "Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc" (BYuT) - have already spent about $100 million each on advertising, the election campaign simply repeats the cliches of the presidential campaign 2004. “Blue and White” supporters of the Party of Regions criticize the “Orange” for mismanagement. “Orange” condemns “blue and white” for “criminal policies.” Parties are fighting not to increase, but at least to maintain their electorate. The highlight of the election promises of all political forces is to improve the social standard of living. Again, according to tradition, this issue is proposed to be resolved through the redistribution of budget funds, which are already scarce.
It is not the parties themselves that are promoted in commercials, but their leaders. All political forces promise to restore order in the country by amending the constitution, unbalanced by the constitutional reform of 2004. President Yushchenko would like to regain the powers corresponding to the powers of ex-President Leonid Kuchma before 2004. Prime Minister Yanukovych is a supporter of a parliamentary republic with greater powers given to the regions. However, if he leaves the post of head of government, the position of the leader of the Party of Regions may change. Tymoshenko calls for introducing either a purely presidential or a purely parliamentary form of government in the country. This approach allows her to play the game with both Yanukovych and Yushchenko.
Early elections are unlikely to radically change anything in the country, because the cause of the political crisis is “the ambitions of the leaders”: Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Vice-President of the European Parliament Marek Siwiec stated a couple of months before the start of the election campaign. He predicts that after the elections everything will remain in place - “both the battlefield and ambitions.” After September 30, a protracted struggle will begin between the opposing camps to create a ruling parliamentary coalition, including the use of such levers as reviewing election results through the courts, street demonstrations, and signing mutually exclusive presidential decrees and government regulations. There will always be a reason for litigation. For example, the Voters Committee of Ukraine recently announced that about one million people will not be able to find themselves on the electoral lists on election day. In the west of Ukraine, election commissions are understaffed with “regional representatives”, and in the east - with representatives of BYuT and NUNS, which can lead to disruption of commission meetings.
Hostage to coalitions
Not only politicians, but also sociologists do not undertake to predict the outcome of the upcoming elections. It looks like at least four parties will get into the Verkhovna Rada: the Party of Regions with a result of 32-37% (in the last elections - 32.14%), BYuT - 25-30% (from 22.29%), NUNS -- 14--17% (13.95%), Communist Party -- 2--5% (3.65%). The overcoming of the three percent barrier by the Lytvyn Bloc (in the last elections it received about 2%) and the Socialist Party (5.69%) is questionable.
According to the head of the Institute of Sociology of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, head of the Ukrainian Sociological Service, Alexander Vishnyak, the gap between the “orange” and “blue and white” coalitions will be so small that “exit polls will not show who won.” During the 2006 elections, data from leading sociological services sometimes differed significantly from the actual results. Thus, BYuT was projected to receive 11.6-16.9% of the votes, and the bloc received 22.29%. Sociologists explain this by the fact that a significant percentage of Ukrainians then decided on their preferences only on election day. In the current elections, “both “orange” and “blue and white” can win with a difference of 1-3%,” Mr. Vishniac believes.
“With the current significant number of undecided voters - up to 10% - sociological forecasts are nothing more than fortune telling on tea leaves,” Vadim Karasev, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, noted in an interview with Vremya Novostey. The expert does not rule out that the communists will not get into the Rada, and the “orange” - BYuT and NUNS - will receive a significant advantage. In this case, the president will be forced to agree to the creation of an “orange” coalition led by Prime Minister Tymoshenko.
On the other hand, Yushchenko may be forced to recognize the victory of the “blue and white” parties, provided that the Communist Party friendly to them and, for example, the “Lytvyn Bloc” get into the Rada. There is also a high probability that Lytvyn will join the “orange”. However, if the difference in votes between the “orange” and “blue and white” turns out to be small, and the conflict is protracted, the president will still put an end to the political dispute. And he will become a hostage to any coalition - whether his NUNS bloc unites with BYuT or the Party of Regions.
According to Mr. Karasev, “Ukraine’s problem is the presence of a “third wheel on the political stage.” If an “orange” coalition is created and Tymoshenko becomes prime minister, then the leader of the Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovych, will be in the opposition, who “will start his election campaign with the expectation of the presidential elections,” VN’s interlocutor predicts. According to him, Tymoshenko will do the same after the creation of the “blue-white” coalition.
All this does not promise a quiet life for Ukraine. A potential presidential candidate who finds himself in the opposition will demand a constitutional referendum to clarify what kind of system Ukrainians want to live under: a presidential republic or a parliamentary one. A political leader who does not receive the post of prime minister will automatically become a supporter of a presidential republic. They will use the manipulation of signatures that have already been collected by the initiative groups of the Party of Regions and BYuT to hold a constitutional referendum. Various kinds of constitutional assemblies will begin with demands to hold a referendum on the constitution and call early presidential and parliamentary elections. The leader of the NUNS bloc, Yuriy Lutsenko, predicts that the new composition of the Rada will not last more than two years and “new parliamentary elections will take place simultaneously with the presidential elections (they are scheduled for 2009 - Ed. ) or immediately after them.” However, his forecast may be overly optimistic.
The fight for the prime minister
There are calls both inside and outside the country for the creation of a “broad” coalition with the participation of the Party of Regions and the Orange. In this case, the communists would be in opposition. Marek Siwiec previously stated that such a configuration would reconcile the east and west of the country, as well as put Ukraine on the path to European integration. The program provisions of the leading political forces in Ukraine include integration into the European Union, accession to the WTO, and the creation of a free trade zone with the EU. But Ukrainian membership in NATO, which the president previously insisted on, will have to be postponed - which will benefit Russia.
International mediators are taking an active part in negotiations on the creation of a “broad” coalition, ex-speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Vladimir Lytvyn said recently. It is for this purpose that leading European officials gathered in Kiev on September 14 for the Ukraine-EU summit, although such events are usually not held before elections.
The main opponent of the “broad” coalition remains Yulia Tymoshenko, who cannot claim the role of prime minister in this alliance. After all, if the leader of the race, the Party of Regions, joins the coalition, BYuT will have only the second result in the elections, whereas with an alliance with the NUNS, it will be the first. “If any “broad” coalition is created, we will not take part in it, but will begin to prepare for the presidential campaign,” Tymoshenko told the online publication Ukrayinska Pravda. In her opinion, “a broad coalition is an absolute utopia,” because joining it is possible only under conditions that are “incompatible with establishing order in the country.” Politicians-reformers “will not be allowed to touch either shadow privatization or a single banking flow” - this is how the oppositionist previously explained her rejection of the idea of a “broad” coalition.
But President Yushchenko can enter into a coalition with the Party of Regions, provided that Viktor Yanukovych is not prime minister. According to rumors, current Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, ex-Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov, as well as several second-tier officials from the Party of Regions are being discussed as possible candidates for the post of prime minister in the “broad” coalition. Such a maneuver would allow the president to save face by justifying the creation of a “broad” coalition in the eyes of the electorate and avoiding accusatory criticism of Tymoshenko for an alliance with Yanukovych. “If the business circles that stand behind the Party of Regions support the nomination of a neutral figure by the prime minister in exchange for guarantees of friendship with the president, then the president can enlist their support in the event that Yanukovych actively fights him as a presidential candidate. Otherwise, subject to the nomination of Yanukovych as Prime Minister, the President will prefer to go into opposition together with BYuT,” Mr. Karasev believes.
Experts do not rule out that Tymoshenko, once in opposition, will try to split the “broad” coalition of the NUNS and the “regionals.” An alliance between BYuT and the Party of Regions would give it the opportunity to form a constitutional majority in the Rada and change the constitution. In particular, Tymoshenko is interested in legislatively consolidating the two-party system by raising the entry barrier. In this case, BYuT will actually share state power with the Party of Regions, pushing aside the presidential bloc. The second step could be the return of presidential powers of the 2004 type, followed by the abolition of the post of prime minister. It is also possible to move in the opposite direction - the establishment of a parliamentary republic in Ukraine with the abolition of the presidential post. Everything will depend on the situation in which the oppositionist finds herself.
“Both presidential and parliamentary forms of government have the right to life,” Tymoshenko said. According to her, if the country’s residents “choose a parliamentary form of government in a referendum, then the post of president is not needed, because there will be dual power, and we need to come to terms with the fact that Ukraine will be led by the chancellor, the prime minister.” If the people speak out for a presidential republic, then the president will head the government, and the post of prime minister will be eliminated.
In the event of an alliance between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, the president will most likely dissolve the Rada again, calling early parliamentary elections. However, in this case, early presidential elections are inevitable.
In mid-September, leading sociological and political science centers published forecasts for the results of early elections in Ukraine. To enter parliament, a party must overcome a three percent threshold.
Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Ukraine Sociology Service: Party of Regions - 34.7%, BYuT - 25.7%, NUNS - 11.9%, Litvin Bloc - 3.3%, Communist Party -- 2.7%, Socialist Party -- 1.8%.
Center for Social and Political Research "Socis": Party of Regions - 29%, BYuT - 19%, NUNS - 10%, "Lytvyn Bloc" - 4%, Communist Party - 3%, Socialist Party - 1%.
Center named after Razumkova: Party of Regions - 33.9%, BYuT - 23.5%, NUNS - 13.1%, Communist Party - 5%, “Litvin Bloc” - 3%, Socialist Party - 1.6%.