Translated material
Tricolor Ukraine
Yushchenko called on the “orange” and “blue and white” to fraternize
The Ukrainian Central Election Commission paused all day yesterday. Despite promises, the remaining protocols of election commissions - less than 1% - had not been recounted by evening. Obviously, the Central Election Commission was waiting for some kind of agreement at the top. That’s why President Viktor Yushchenko’s statement this afternoon was so unexpected: “I give instructions to the Party of Regions, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defense (NUNS), together with other winners, to begin preliminary political consultations on the formation of a majority and government "Since the three named forces received about 80% of the votes , they are responsible “for stabilizing the political situation, primarily in the Ukrainian parliament,” the president explained and added that Ukraine should emerge from the elections as a “united country.”
The president's speech was postponed five times by his press service. Apparently, Yushchenko revised his statement several times. Many expected that he would entrust the formation of the government to Yulia Tymoshenko , but this did not happen. According to rumors, due to the fact that ex-speaker Vladimir Lytvyn still refuses to join the “orange” coalition. And not all members of the presidential bloc would like to see Tymoshenko as prime minister.
The leader of the “blue and white” Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych regarded the president’s statement as a call for fraternization between the “orange” and “blue and white”. The Party of Regions “has always defended the need to form a broad coalition in parliament,” since another way “to unite the country is impossible,” he said.
Yulia Tymoshenko yesterday called journalists and told them that she did not have time to communicate with the president - after making a statement, he flew to Berlin: “I could not talk to him either by phone or in any other way.” But at the same time, she said that she “sincerely believes” in a quick meeting with Mr. Yushchenko and expects to “find out what the president meant when he called on all political forces for the negotiation process.”
“I think he didn’t mean anything bad, nothing bad—that means: he didn’t mean a broad coalition,” she gave the advance to her political partner. “I really appreciate the unity between our team and the presidential team and the president that has emerged in recent months. And I will not destroy the hope for this unity with a single word,” added the BYuT leader.
Yulia Tymoshenko announced that BYuT will not deceive the expectations of voters and will not join the coalition of NUNS, the Party of Regions and the Lytvyn Bloc, “remaining in opposition”: “This will be much more honest and useful for the country than turning into a political roof for the mafia.” . Ms. Tymoshenko is ready to form a coalition only with the NUNS, which they, in fact, agreed on before the early elections on September 30. According to these agreements, in the event of an “orange” coalition, Tymoshenko was to become prime minister, and one of the leaders of the NUNS, Vyacheslav Kirilenko, was to become speaker. The Prosecutor General's Office, the security service and the Ministry of Justice were to come under the control of the president. Two days ago, after a meeting with the president, Tymoshenko made it clear that she had received carte blanche from the president to form an “orange” coalition and government.
Yesterday, the presidential bloc did not officially comment on either its intentions or the president’s statement itself. Nikolai Onishchuk, deputy head of the NUNS election headquarters, suggested that the president’s words do not at all mean a call for the formation of a “broad” coalition. He believes that Viktor Yushchenko only called on political forces to “come to an agreement” in order to begin a new stage in relations between the government and the opposition.
“The possibility of creating an “orange” coalition cannot yet be ruled out. But the president is probably not sure of the feasibility of its creation, suggested Vadim Karasev, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, in a conversation with Vremya Novostey. “BYuT and NUNS will have too small a majority of votes compared to the Blue and Whites, which does not guarantee political stability in the country.” In his opinion, “The Party of Regions, which includes almost the entire industrial business of the eastern region of the country, is unlikely to accept the transition to the opposition.” In addition, the established balance of relations with Russia may be disrupted.
But a broad coalition will create a non-conflict and stable parliament and avoid global economic shocks. Then the prime minister will most likely become a representative of the presidential bloc - the head of Yushchenko's secretariat, Viktor Baloga, or the head of the Foreign Ministry, Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Economic posts will remain with the Party of Regions, law enforcement agencies will remain with the president, and the humanitarian bloc and the post of speaker will go to Vladimir Lytvyn. This opens up the possibility of repealing the 2004 constitutional reform that limited presidential powers. This idea will be supported by both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, who expect to win the 2009 presidential elections.
If Tymoshenko does try to create conditions for the dissolution of the new parliament - although she said yesterday that she does not intend to do this - then the president, with the support of the Party of Regions, will hold a constitutional referendum and introduce a mixed majoritarian-proportional election system. “If the party system splits the country—neither the “orange” nor the “blue” have a real advantage—then the president, in order to preserve the integrity of the country, has no choice but to create conditions for a new structuring of the elites,” comments Mr. - Mr. Karasev.
However, Ukrainian political scientist and BYuT member Vladimir Polokhalo predicts that the NUNS, in the event of the creation of a broad coalition, will suffer the fate of the Socialist Party of ex-speaker Alexander Moroz, which did not perform very well in these elections (as of yesterday evening - 2.86%). The Socialist Party was an active participant in the “orange” revolution of 2004, but after the parliamentary elections of 2006 it joined the “blue-white” coalition.