Translated material
Four heads are better
The US will resist on missile defense, but will concede on the CFE Treaty
Today in Moscow, two-day Russian-American negotiations begin in the “two plus two” format - between the heads of the diplomatic and defense departments of Russia and the United States Sergei Lavrov with Anatoly Serdyukov and Condoleezza Rice with Robert Gates. Contrary to popular belief, they will address not only the issues of missile defense (ABM), but will consider the entire range of security issues and current regional problems. “The main focus is planned on missile defense, but other important topics related to strategic stability will also be considered,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin told Vremya Novostey.The parties will discuss missile defense based on a report prepared by a narrow circle of experts from a high-level working group. It is headed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak and US Deputy Secretary of State John Rood. Moscow's position on missile defense is based on the initiatives of President Vladimir Putin, well known to Americans (on the possible joint use of radar stations in the Russian Armavir and Azerbaijani Gabala instead of placing elements of the American missile defense system in Europe).
Yesterday on Smolenskaya Square, according to Vremya Novostey, confidence remained that Rice and Gates would bring answers to the Kremlin’s initiatives, which “will still allow us to move the problem forward.” Ms. Rice told reporters on the eve of her arrival that cooperation with Moscow in the area of missile defense was “quite possible.”
But VN experts do not predict breakthroughs. “These are all PR escapades, but in practice there is no sign of agreement,” Alexander Pikaev, head of the disarmament and conflict resolution department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted to our newspaper.
Other topics of negotiations include the fate of several treaties: on conventional armed forces in Europe (CFE), on strategic offensive weapons (START) and on the reduction of strategic offensive capabilities (SOR). The nuclear problems of Iran and North Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kosovo will also be discussed. Among the regional issues, the Kosovo issue will be the most pressing, since it will be submitted to the UN Security Council in December.
"We are concerned about the fate of the CFE Treaty, which is part of the strategic architecture, the military architecture of post-Cold War Europe, and we are very concerned about Russian noise about a possible withdrawal from this treaty," Secretary of State Rice said ahead of the meeting. (On July 13, the Russian President issued a decree suspending the CFE Treaty.)
Mr. Pikaev, commenting to VN on the situation around the CFE Treaty, suggested that in Moscow the Americans would soften their position and take “gradual, intermediate steps.” Our interlocutor does not exclude some progress on the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty, which expires in 2009. In the meantime, the parties, according to the expert, disagree on the following: “Washington does not want a new treaty, but would like to agree on a transparency regime in offensive weapons. Russia would like clear agreements on ceilings limiting the number of missiles, which the United States is not yet ready for.”
Summarizing the situation around the upcoming meeting of the four, Alexander Pikaev said: “This is the case when the presence of negotiations is better than their absence, even despite the fact that practical results are not expected here. After all, the parties will be able to better understand each other’s positions on a very wide range of issues.”