Transneft is safe

The state pipeline monopoly was headed by Nikolai Tokarev

Transneft announced yesterday that Nikolai Tokarev, now the former head of Zarubezhneft, had been elected its president . His candidacy was approved on October 12 by the meeting of shareholders of the pipeline monopoly, whose functions are performed by Rosimushchestvo (since 100% of the voting shares are owned by the state). Mr. Tokarev is considered an ally of Vladimir Putin, as he worked with him in the Dresden residency. However, his appointment can hardly be associated only with this biographical fact. Mr. Tokarev in 1999--2000 was the vice president of Transneft and oversaw foreign economic and information and analytical activities, so the company is familiar to him. Experts believe that Mr. Tokarev is unlikely to achieve such breakthroughs in the work of the monopoly as were achieved by former President Semyon Vainshtok (the start of the implementation of the “Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean” project, the “bridge” bypassing Ukraine Sukhodolnaya - Rodionovskaya and a number of others). will it succeed? His main task as head of Transneft is to maintain the pace of construction taken by Mr. Weinstock and at the same time maintain financial indicators at a sufficiently high level.

Mr. Weinstock, who has led Transneft since 2000 and was appointed by Vladimir Putin in September to head the Sochi Olympics construction corporation , has distinguished himself for injecting impetus into the pipeline monopoly. As a result, a surplus of export capacity appeared and the implementation of large projects began. And in the spring, the state decided to merge Transneft and Transnefteproduct, and Mr. Weinstock managed to complete most of the technical work on the merger.

Thus, Mr. Tokarev will first of all have to deal with the integration of the business of these two state monopolies. And first of all, notes Troika Dialog analyst Valery Nesterov, the new head of Transneft will have to achieve a synergistic effect from the merger of companies. What will be very difficult to do, since these structures have opposing interests in many areas.

In addition, the analyst notes, among the tasks facing Mr. Tokarev is maintaining the pace of construction of the Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean oil pipeline. After all, as you know, even a slight hitch in the work leads to an increase in the cost of the entire project by billions of dollars. “And there are problems with equipment, with personnel, and they also need to be solved urgently,” says Mr. Nesterov.

Mr. Tokarev will also have to engage in politics. Transneft was instructed to speed up the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project, which should be filled with Caspian oil, while now the countries of the Caspian region have very actively begun to discuss an alternative route - extending the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline to Gdansk, bypassing Russia. At the recent energy summit in Vilnius, an agreement was even signed to establish a joint venture to design and lay an oil pipeline. It is clear that if this project is implemented, the feasibility of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project may turn out to be very doubtful. However, Mr. Nesterov notes, if both projects are nevertheless implemented, the surplus of export capacity will increase, and this, in a global sense, will have a positive impact on the pipeline industry as a whole.

Another major political issue for Transneft is the reconstruction of the “northern” branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which runs from the Bryansk region in the direction of Lithuania. It has been out of operation for almost a year due to an accident, and repair work has been very delayed. At the same time, as is known, the sale of the Lithuanian Mazeikiu Nafta took place: it eventually went to the Polish PKN Orlen, while many large Russian oil companies (including Rosneft and LUKOIL) would not be averse to acquiring this plant. Whether these two events are connected, history is silent, but until now Russian oil supplies through the pipeline have not been carried out there. Sooner or later, of course, supplies will resume, Mr. Nesterov believes, but it is obvious that they are unlikely to occur on purely competitive terms.

In general, the expert sums up, Mr. Tokarev comes to Transneft at a difficult time for it, and it is he who will have to achieve a significant expansion of its activities. His future career obviously depends on how he can cope with this task - after all, many are confident that in five to seven years Mr. Tokarev will be ready to head one of the largest state-owned oil companies by that time.

Ivan GORDEEV