Test for the First Lady

In Argentina, one of the largest Latin American countries, presidential elections are approaching. They are scheduled for October 28, 2007. The peculiarity of the current campaign was that right up to its start, intrigue remained: who would become the clear favorite - the current President Nestor Kirchner or his wife. The issue was resolved literally at the last moment. After much hesitation, on July 19, at the peak of an unusually cold winter for these latitudes, the ruling Justicialist (Peronist) Party nominated Cristina Fernandez as its candidate. This became something of a landmark event.

To understand the essence of what happened, it is necessary to take a brief excursion into recent history. Néstor Kirchner became head of state in May 2003 under dramatic circumstances. These were early elections. They were appointed due to extraordinary circumstances - the power vacuum that formed after the president left his post in December 2001 in the midst of an acute socio-economic and institutional crisis. The situation was aggravated by the fact that the vice president resigned even earlier. Under the current conditions, the legislative body - the National Congress - could not elect a temporary head of state within a week. Finally, he became the moderate Peronist Eduardo Duhalde, who was defeated in the 1999 elections. He turned out to be a good crisis manager, relying on the qualified economist Roberto Lavagna, he managed to keep the country on the edge of the abyss.

Against this background, preparations for the 2003 snap elections unfolded. In this very difficult situation, the highest electoral authority allowed the Peronists, torn by contradictions, not to hold a congress and to field several candidates. Then this party, which was initially a conglomerate of various currents and tendencies, for the first time in its history nominated three candidates at once. Two of them occupied polar positions. One is 74-year-old political veteran Carlos Saul Menem. For 9 years (from 1990 to 1999) he was at the top of the power pyramid. Under him, the country took a sharp turn towards neoliberalism. In a short time, it was possible to suppress galloping inflation, achieve an influx of foreign capital, and establish parity between the national currency - the peso and the dollar. Everywhere in the world they started talking about the Argentine economic miracle (its architect Domingo Cavallo once came to Russia at the invitation of reformers and shared his Argentine experience with them). On the back of these achievements, Menem was elected to a second term.

A little later, the other side of well-being, its price, came to light. External debt increased sharply, unemployment among the working population increased, hitting young people hard, the stratification between the super-rich and the poor intensified, and entire social groups found themselves below the poverty line. Then a devastating default occurred with all the ensuing consequences that were well known to Russians. But that was later. Menem seemed to remain on the “white horse” and decided to re-enter the fight for the highest post.

The ex-president was opposed by Nestor Kirchner, a 53-year-old young, dynamic governor of the remote province of Santa Cruz, who had been elected to this post three times. He was relatively little known on the national stage, but distinguished himself by skillfully managing the subject of the federation, which he managed to protect from the economic turmoil that befell the country. The Peronists reached the intermediate finish with a minimal margin. K. Menem took the lead with 24.36% of the votes. He was counting on an unconditional victory, so he was not very happy with the results of the round. N. Kirnscher came close to him, scoring 21.99%. They had to continue the fight. The high density of results was noteworthy. They were followed by a figure of the center-right, Lopez Murphy, a representative of a structure that spun off from the oldest party, the Radical Civic Union (UCR). Next came Elisa Carrio, nominated by the amorphous leftist group Alternative for a Republic of Equals.

As analysts had predicted, for the first time in the country's history, a second round was planned. The final results of the elections largely depended on who would win the sympathies of 8.6 million citizens who had previously given preference to other parties, and on who would be able to achieve success in the capital province, where 38% of voters are concentrated.

Immediately after the results of the first round were announced, Menem said that the rest was a mere formality, and he already felt like a president. But, just in case, I was on the safe side. Asked if his political career would end if he was suddenly defeated, he said: "Then I'll run again in 2007." Meanwhile, judging by indirect signs, other candidates were inclined to support Kirchner. He took a number of strong steps, in particular, he met with city mayors from the State Registration Service, who assured him of their loyalty. Soon a clear favorite of the race emerged. According to a public opinion poll released on May 6, Kirchner was significantly ahead of his competitor: 58.8% of respondents supported him, only 31.7% supported Menem. Measurements were carried out on a representative sample in 12 provinces. They spoke of Kirchner's undeniable advantage even in areas where he failed to achieve success in the first round.

This was a strong blow to Menem's pride. On Wednesday, May 14, four days before the vote, while in his home province of La Rioja, he announced that he was leaving the race. He explained his decision in particular by the fact that President Duhalde allegedly predicted Kirchner's victory even before the vote and thereby actually interfered in the course of the electoral process. In the absence of other arguments, Menem threw at his opponent: “Let him stay with his 22 percent, and I will stay with the people.” Behind this extravagant step lay a desire to tie the hands of the potential winner. In this situation, Nestor Kirchner was declared president.

Having taken office on May 25, the new president began to implement the center-left development project without any hesitation. During his reign, economic growth rates reached 8%, unemployment and poverty decreased significantly, people who emigrated abroad in search of a better life began to return to their homeland, and today a high degree of his support remains. He had a good chance of remaining in office and running for a second term, fortunately the Constitution allowed him to do this. However, the idea of ​​nominating not Kirchner himself, but his wife, as a candidate for this position was actively worked out at the top of the leocentric wing of the party. The intrigue continued until the beginning of July.

The external impetus for such a decision was the defeat of the president’s creature in the mayoral elections of Buenos Aires, the country’s largest metropolis. The victory with a clear advantage was won by entrepreneur Mauricio Macri, owner of the famous Boca Juniors club, which won the prestigious trophy of South American football - the Libertadores Cup - on the eve of the second round. This sounded an alarming signal to the top. It was necessary to update the image of the authorities. The stern Nestor is replaced by the feminine Christina, who is able to ensure continuity of course. In addition, rumors are circulating about Kirchner's illness.

The promotion of women to leading roles in politics fits organically into the local political tradition. Thus, Evita, the wife of Juan Domingo Peron, the founder of the Justicialist Party, enjoyed incredible popularity. His other wife, Isabel Martinez de Peron, was vice president and took over as head of state after her husband's death in 1974.

The current contender, Cristina Elizabeth Fernandez, was born on February 19, 1953 in the city of La Plata, the administrative center of the province of Buenos Aires. She graduated from the law faculty of a local university, and there she became an activist in the Peronist youth organization. While studying, I met my future husband and got married in 1975. A short time later we went to his homeland, the province of Santa Cruz, located in the south in Patagonia. The couple have two adult children: 27-year-old son Maximo and 17-year-old Florencia. At the end of the 1980s, Christina's political career began, first at the provincial and then at the national level. She becomes a member of the lower house of parliament.

Christina invariably provided her husband with all kinds of support, including legislative support. By the time of his election to the highest post, she was already a senator, gained independent political weight and actively contributed to the promotion of presidential initiatives. In parliament, she established herself as a consistent fighter for human rights and for women's equality. Thus, in addition to personal relationships, the spouses developed a political community. Without Christina’s participation, almost no significant government decision was made. She even acquired her own office in the presidential Pink House, which caused discontent among the opposition.

2005 was Christina’s finest hour. Then, in the elections to the upper house from the province of Buenos Aires, she beat her formidable rival Hilda Gonzalez, the wife of interim President Eduardo Duhalde (2002-2003). Observers note that Christina maintains excellent physical shape, adheres to a strict diet, and drinks mineral water of the same brand. Dressed by prestigious fashion designers. According to experts, her disadvantage is her lack of experience in the executive branch. But she has a strong and strong-willed character. If successful, she will become the first representative of the fair sex in the country to be elected to this post by universal suffrage.

On the eve of the nomination ceremony for Cristina Fernandez, held at the Municipal Theater of La Plata, there was a loud scandal that hit the government hard. A bag containing $60,000 was found in the closet of the bathroom closet in the office of Economy Minister Felicia Miceli. As soon as this became known to the public, the minister, who claimed that her brother lent her the money to buy a house, submitted her resignation. This was done quickly in order not to fan the flames of the fire, which could indirectly burn the first lady. The President immediately granted the request and, in order to mitigate the negative effect of the incident, thanked the minister for her contribution to the work of the cabinet. By the way, the ex-minister is a highly qualified professional, a financier, and before her appointment to this post she held the position of head of the Central Bank. She replaced Roberto Lavagna in this post. Surely the opponents will take advantage of this episode to attack the favorite, who has a high rating. Moreover, having come to power, the current head of state launched a campaign to eradicate bribery and bribery. An irreconcilable fight against the “thieves in white gloves” was his slogan, which was consistently put into practice for more than four years.

The immediate resignation of the Minister of Finance serves as clear evidence of the improvement of the political situation in the country, where in the recent past there was an “institutionalization of corruption” that affected all branches of government from top to bottom. However, similar episodes occurred under the current administration.

Among the main rivals, the above-mentioned economist Roberto Lavagna stands out, who made a decisive contribution to overcoming the economic crisis in the country. He criticizes the current government for a lack of prudence, irrational use of financial resources, and argues that the benefits of economic growth are not reaching everyone. He considers it necessary to restore the balance between the branches of government and strengthen the role of the highest legislative and judicial authorities. By the way, Roberto Lavagna was also once a member of the Peronist party.

The tireless Elisa Carrio maintains her fighting spirit, promising to give battle to the first lady, who has a powerful administrative resource on her side. It has already been proactively deployed against another potential candidate - the restless Carlos Menem. Hearings have recently resumed about illegal arms shipments to Ecuador and Croatia under his rule, which, in addition to violating international sanctions, caused $37 million in losses to the treasury.

This case was already the subject of litigation in 2001, then Menem was under house arrest for six months, then he was acquitted, since his proteges were then sitting in the Supreme Court. And now, on the eve of the elections, the case was again pulled out of the archives.

But the former president’s position is already not brilliant. He tried to become governor of his home province of La Rioja, in order to use this post as a springboard for another leap to the top, but failed, ending up in only third place.

Meanwhile, the race favorite is actively campaigning. Her motto: continuity and minor changes. In mid-August, she made a strong move: in an effort to expand her electoral base, she took on Mendoza provincial governor Julio Cobos of the opposition Radical Civic Union as her running mate as vice president. True, this caused discontent among the leadership of the split GRS, since a member of the leadership of the same party, Senator Gerardo Morales, had previously agreed to run in conjunction with Roberto Lavagna.

In addition to activity within the country, Cristina Fernandez is developing vigorous activity in the international arena. When traveling abroad with her husband, she also works according to her own program.

The election results depend on a combination of many factors. For example, which member of the same party will the voters of the Civil Radical Union prefer, how will the electorate of the most populous province of Buenos Aires vote, what choice will the Peronists themselves make. Of course, the notorious wife of the president has considerable chances of success. But it can hardly be said that victory is in her pocket. There may be surprises ahead.