Translated material
Coalition for a year
The union of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko will not be sustainable
Today, the “Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc” (BYuT) and the presidential bloc “Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defense” (NUNS) promise to publish the text of the agreement on the creation of an “orange” coalition in the newly elected Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The Orange coalition will have 228 votes out of 450 - just six more than the opposition. Tymoshenko should become the prime minister in this coalition . The text of the agreement on the creation of the “orange” coalition includes a list of laws that BYuT and NUNS must vote on before approving the candidacy of the prime minister and appointing a government. The list includes bills to expand the powers of the president and implement his social initiatives, to abolish parliamentary immunity and introduce an imperative mandate for deputies prohibiting the transition to other factions.The fact that the “orange” plan to vote for these bills even before the appointment of a prime minister indicates mistrust between the president and Yulia Tymoshenko, one of the leaders of the “blue-white” Party of Regions, Taras Chornovil, said yesterday. Two “orange” politicians are vying for leadership, which could cause them to break agreements in the hope of getting more favorable starting conditions when forming a coalition. Chornovil said that “if the “orange” coalition is created in violation of the law,” then the “regionals” will block the work of the Rada. The Party of Regions, which is tipped to go into opposition, doubts the durability of the “orange” alliance. The coalition of BYuT and NUNS will last until November at most, that is, until the first meetings of the Rada, after which it will fall apart, Chornovil believes. The collapse will occur due to the reluctance of some Nuns members to support the appointment of Tymoshenko as prime minister, which some of them have already openly stated.
The problem is that Tymoshenko needs at least 226 votes to be confirmed. To ruin her appointment as prime minister, it is enough for at least three “orange” deputies not to come to the Rada meeting “for a good reason.” And after the fiasco of the “orange” alliance, negotiations will begin on the formation of a “broad” coalition consisting of the Party of Regions and the NUNS, Chornovil believes. He did not rule out that the prime minister of the “broad” coalition would not be the leader of the Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovych, but a representative of the NUNS. Earlier, Tymoshenko accused the “regionals” of trying to bribe “orange” deputies, who were allegedly offered $10 million for betrayal.
“If the formation of a coalition and government headed by Tymoshenko is officially announced in the Rada, then such a coalition will last at least a year,” Vadim Karasev, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, told Vremya Novostei. The expert notes that Tymoshenko has many opponents within the “orange” camp who could block her appointment as prime minister. At the same time, Tymoshenko can compensate for the missing votes at the expense of the opposition - in the secret ballot regime, the communists can support her.
Dismissing Tymoshenko as Prime Minister earlier than in a year means repeating the scenario of 2005 , says Vremya Novostei's interlocutor. Thanks to that dismissal, Tymoshenko attributed all her mistakes to the machinations of her opponents and carried out her election campaign with triumph. Now the president is unlikely to repeat this mistake. “In a year it will become clear how effective Tymoshenko’s government is,” states Mr. Karasev. The fate of the “orange” coalition will also depend on Tymoshenko’s plans for participation in the 2009 presidential campaign. If she supports Yushchenko's nomination, she will probably remain prime minister. If not, the format of the coalition may change.
Yulia Tymoshenko herself has no doubt that she will receive the post of prime minister. Yesterday at a press conference she made a number of high-profile political statements. She did not rule out that the state would return a number of strategically important facilities to its ownership if investors do not comply with the conditions for their operation. In her opinion, the state can, at the legislative level, tighten the conditions for the use of strategic objects. Tymoshenko also sent a signal to Russia, speaking out in favor of abandoning the services of intermediaries and switching to direct relations between the Russian Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine. She promised to find mutual understanding with Moscow so that the price of gas for Ukraine “would be balanced.”