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The United States will abandon missile defense in Eastern Europe if Russia stops Iran's nuclear program
An intriguing turn has emerged in the global geopolitical game between Russia and the United States. The White House, through the mouth of US Deputy Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried, hinted at the possibility of a political exchange. Washington is ready to listen to Moscow’s concerns and refuse to deploy elements of a missile defense system (ABM) in Eastern Europe. But first, Russia will have to ensure that Iran curtails its nuclear program.The promulgation of this initiative was preceded by negotiations between the heads of the military and diplomatic departments of Russia and the United States that took place on October 12 in the Russian capital, as well as Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran the other day. Daniel Fried's proposals were made at a press conference in Brussels following a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council. Noting that the deployment of a radar station (radar) in the Czech Republic and a missile defense system in Poland is due to the missile threat from Iran, he said: “If Iran stops uranium enrichment, begins to interact with the international community and changes its tone, we cannot but accept this in attention in the context of the missile defense problem.”
At the same time, an anonymous senior US State Department official said in unison with Mr. Fried that the United States could change its approach to developing a missile defense system if Iran abandons uranium enrichment. US President George W. Bush also sounded optimistic when he said at a press conference on Wednesday that he would “continue to work with Russia” to counter “Iran’s ambitions to create nuclear weapons.”
During yesterday’s live communication with the people, Vladimir Putin said: “The latest contacts with the Americans show that they have thought about our proposals and are looking for ways to address our concerns.” However, he immediately recalled that if decisions on missile defense “are made without taking into account the interests of Russia, then we will take steps to ensure the security of the Russian Federation.”
Conciliatory gestures on the part of the United States are associated with Russia’s tough position, believes Nikolai Zlobin, director of Russian and Asian programs at the Washington Institute of World Security. Moscow said that the missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic threatens Russia's security, offering the United States joint use of a radar station in Azerbaijan's Gabala and a yet-to-be-built one in Russian Armavir. “The Americans were terribly surprised by the Russian reaction to their plans to deploy a missile defense system and by Moscow’s statements that this system is directed against Russia,” Mr. Zlobin told Vremya Novostei, noting that the United States nevertheless “understands that It’s also impossible to offend Putin or drive him into a corner, and we began to look for intermediate options.”
However, yesterday, Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, preparing for parliamentary elections, unexpectedly added weight to Russian arguments against missile defense. A loyal US ally said that Poland needs American interceptor missiles to protect itself from Russia, and not from Iran or other international hooligans: “This will strengthen our security... We must remember that we are constantly under threat. The Russians did not agree with the changes that had occurred since 1989. It's obvious that they believe we are within their sphere of influence." (More about the pre-election situation in Poland).
An important incentive for the currently announced American initiatives could have been a certain proposal that President Putin conveyed to the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani mentioned it. “Among the issues that he (Putin - Ed. ) raised was his view on the issue of the nuclear program. Now we are studying his thoughts,” said Ali Larijani. And Iranian television quoted the words of the Ayatollah himself addressed to the Russian leader: “We will consider what you said, as well as your proposal.” Perhaps Putin has made an offer to the Iranians that they cannot refuse, and the Americans are guessing about its contents.
After the Moscow negotiations in the “two plus two” format, it seemed that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Pentagon head Robert Gates did nothing to please their Russian colleagues Sergei Lavrov and Anatoly Serdyukov. Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Yuri Baluevsky, said that he did not see anything new in the proposals of the American side. “The whole novelty lies in the fact that the radars in Gabala and Armavir should become an addition to the missile defense system being created,” the general said and added that “we will not agree with this approach.” It seems, however, that the possibility of “exchanging” Iran for missile defense was already discussed then. In any case, Sergei Lavrov stated vaguely at the final press conference that “our American colleagues presented their counterproposal, which is aimed at finding common solutions.”
The question now is what will be the reaction of Iranian leaders. An expert on Iran at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lyudmila Kulagina, in an interview with Vremya Novostei, suggested that “the main driving incentive for current Iranian diplomacy may be the desire to avoid war with the United States.” Nina Mamedova, head of the Iranian sector at the Institute of Oriental Studies, told Vremya Novostey that the main thing for Iran is that “its right to nuclear development is not questioned, and this right is recorded.” However, according to her, “the latest publications in the Iranian press and statements by official representatives indicate that the country has decided not to particularly emphasize the nuclear issue.”
So far, there are no signs that Iran has changed its tone in the nuclear dispute. Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called Bush's statement that Iran's nuclear program threatens a third world war a "threat to world security." Tehran believes that “such statements reflect the expansionist goals of the Americans.”