Reasons for optimism

The topic of the president, elections, mechanisms for preparing these elections and their possible results could not have been returned. It would seem to be in power in the hands of all the tools so that everything goes, as the authorities are needed. But in the note “staggered” I already wrote that the actions of the president and his colleagues do not always depend on them, but obey the deep socio-political processes. If they do not obey, violence will follow, at best - a violation of the mass of generally accepted procedures. But, as you know, the fate of all dictatorships, tough or soft, who bashfully call themselves enlightened authoritarianism ended in collapse. The world, of course, stands still, but, in some strange way, in social and structurally moves forward.

Actually, I was forced to reflect on this topic by voting results in the NTV program “To the barrier” by Vladimir Solovyov. The viewers, with almost double an advantage, gave the victory not to Nikita Mikhalkov, who, according to him, sincerely asked the president to stay for the third term, but to Victor Erofeev, who opposed the letter of Mikhalkov and K.

Consider four options.

1. The vote was tapped according to the evil mind of NTV employees. But, in fact, it was an anti -Kremle vote. And, in this case, a change in management and the host of this program is expected.

2. The vote was such by the will of the Kremlin, according to the principle of counterweights. (Let us recall the condemnation by the president of the behavior of Cherkesov and its immediate increase.) There should be some counterweights. That is, Mikhalkov gives a signal that with his letter he did not grab God by the beard. This, or similar, maybe, but very difficult.

3. The vote was not "anti -Kremlevsky", but Antimikhalkovsky. It is noted that the vote in this program in the first minutes shows the audience’s attitude to the heroes. The audience appreciates Mikhalkov’s films, loves his father for poetry. But, at the same time, Mikhalkov himself does not like, and his father personally, like everyone who is standing next to the authorities and publicly praises power. In this, the audience sees something shameful.

4. It was an honest vote. And, in fact, the plebiscite took place. The audience appreciates the president, pays tribute to his policy, but against the idea of ​​Mikhalkov. Accordingly, the audience is possibly for continuing the president’s policy, but against the third term.

Each of the readers can choose any of the answer options or add their own. But it is obvious that so far we do not see NTV leaders with a diverse bag asking for alms on the street. So, the circle of answers is narrowing.

We touch on another question. Why is the overwhelming mass of the population still for the third term? The answer to this question is no riddle.

If you discard the demagogy such as “Bloody Gabnya” or “People - Genetic Slave” aside, it turns out that the people are not so stupid and quite pragmatic. I will have to repeat the obvious: with the enchanting millennial tradition of the change of power in Russia, which consists in eliminating its predecessor or its removal, by age, forward, with the concomitant bloody violence, the last eight years - this is a time of happiness and prosperity in the city of the Sun. For Russia, what the leader does not drink, speaks in a foreign language, that they do not beat sticks, let go abroad, that they are full of shops and tomorrow will increase the pension by three hundred rubles is already a lot. And speaking for Putin, they rather advocate for the preservation of this particular. Moreover, I risk saying that this means that they advocate freedom and democracy, and not for the dictatorship. For the above components are indispensable attributes of freedom and democracy. Citizens lead to Putin as a guarantor of precisely these components of their life. Another thing is that these same things could guarantee other persons, but we already have such features of national political hunting. We have no other public guarantor of this course. Therefore, citizens advocate someone who is. But exactly what they are for is the first reason for my optimism.

At the same time, citizens never experienced a legitimate change of power. They do not understand who will come, whether this person will be just crazy, so they vote for the status quo. That is why the results of the December plebiscite are obvious. And to condemn citizens absurd for this.

The second reason for optimism is no less obvious to me than the first.

The current president has two obvious paths.

The first is to stay with various mechanisms.

The second is to leave for the procedure.

I do not think that the president will still decide to stay. And it's not about violations of the Constitution. Even if he changes her or bypass, for many he will be illegitim. Just because he touched the constitution. For a significant part of citizens, this is significant. This is an occasion for claims, appeals to international courts and mass performances. The slogan “Protect the Constitution” is a serious banner under which the entire opposition can unite. It seems to me that Vladimir Putin understands this. And the fact that the power has ceased to be afraid and the speeches will be evidenced by all events of recent times. Power was staggered already with the slightest hint of the president’s departure. That is, it is absolutely obvious that the authorities will be forced to follow the procedure, an alternative - huge problems all the next selective period.

But there is a third reason for optimism, more general. He will begin to work at the second when the new president appears. It is well known that the stability of the country is the stability of the elites. The problem of Russia is one elite dancing around the president, panicky afraid to lose everything with his departure.

I dare to say that the second in which the inauguration of the new president will occur will be the moment of the birth of a fundamentally new Russia.

President Putin “will find his place in politics,” as he himself declared. We agree, this is true. And there is no doubt that his entourage will gather around him, his business elite, waiting for a revenge in 2012. Around the new president, no matter how faithful Putin he is at first, a new elite will begin to gather. And after four or eight years, we will have two powerful groups that compete in politics and business.

As for citizens, they will survive a real shock, but you need to survive it once. They, suddenly, will find out that the new president is "not with horns." In practice, it turns out that the country has not collapsed and the continuity of the course does not depend on the name of the president, but on how much it protects the constitution in which all guarantees are spelled out. Gradually, it will become clear that when we call the President the guarantor, this means that he is not a guarantor of increasing the pension, but the guarantor of the Constitution, which provides for a decent life. And not only pensioners.

Such evidence, I note, is not obvious to ordinary citizens. The emergence of a new president in the existence of an old, which has moved from the authorities from the authorities, as it seems to me, will finally interrupt the centuries -old tradition of attaching happiness to a specific surname. A similar breakdown has already occurred with citizens regarding housing. As we know, before the apartment was for centuries. Now it is nothing more than a product, an occasion to improve your life. Descalization of the President’s person, awareness of his secondaryness, and the primaryness of his desires and needs is precisely this fundamental shift in the minds of Russian citizens and should occur in 2008. And voting in the NTV program is an obvious confirmation of this desire of citizens to self -esteem. Of course, power can go in a different, violent way. But, I repeat, this will not change the trends, but only slightly remote it. Because the world, of course, stands still, but, of course, moves forward.