Reprieve for Nazarbayev

Kazakhstan will wait to chair the OSCE

Yesterday ended a two-day visit to Kazakhstan by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Before leaving Astana, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry and his Kazakh counterpart Marat Tazhin were received by the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. According to Mr. Lavrov, at the meeting with Nazarbayev, “the progress of implementation of agreements on our cooperation in the fuel and energy sector, including hydrocarbons and nuclear energy, as well as in the space and humanitarian spheres” was discussed. At the same time, “our joint determination to do everything to further advance our relations was confirmed.” Sergei Lavrov told reporters about the reminder that President Nazarbayev gave to the heads of the Foreign Ministries of Russia and Kazakhstan: “The diplomatic departments of the two countries, according to agreements with the Russian president, must coordinate the work of all departments to implement the agreements reached at the meetings of the two leaders.” The Russian initiative was also approved that the Foreign Ministries of the two countries would conduct a “quarterly reconciliation”: “where there is progress” and “where there is a lag and what measures need to be taken to ensure that everything is carried out accurately and in a timely manner.” On Monday, Kazakh Foreign Minister Marat Tazhin radiated deep satisfaction after negotiations with Sergei Lavrov: “For the first time, we have worked out such a mechanism, which we conventionally called the “road map of our bilateral relations,” an even more dense consultation mechanism has been created...”

Such a detailed presentation of how the ministerial agreement on the “implementation of the agreement” between the presidents was reached in Astana is not accidental. The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry had to listen to more than one request from his Kazakh counterpart to “intensify consideration” of some issue or “accelerate the process” of solving a certain problem in bilateral relations. This concerned the inclusion of Kazakh cosmonauts in the Russian crews being formed, the preparation of a new lease agreement for Russia at the Baikonur Cosmodrome and the identification by Russia of an authorized organization for the joint development of the Imashevskoye gas condensate field, located at the junction of the Atyrau and Astrakhan regions. This had to do with “the unsettled problem of transporting Kazakh gas (obviously, to the Orenburg gas processing plant in Russia. - Ed. )” and “the interaction of border regions.”

Finally, Kazakhstan called on Russia to “intensify the negotiation process on the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline,” which was agreed upon by the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan at a meeting in Turkmenbashi in May of this year. This call from Astana looks very interesting, since it sheds light on the main intrigue that has become an obstacle to the implementation of this project. If the head of the Kazakh Foreign Ministry publicly “draws the attention” of his Russian colleague to the fact that September 1 has already “expired the deadline” given by the presidents of the three countries to their governments to prepare intergovernmental agreements, then this means one thing: the agreements are being broken down due to the fault of Moscow.

According to Vremya Novostei, this position of Kazakhstan is shared by Turkmenistan. Ashgabat is dissatisfied with the progress of negotiations with Gazprom on tariffs for Turkmen and possibly Kazakh gas, which is supposed to be transported through Russian territory. The Turkmen leadership considers it necessary to increase the price of its gas in the future, not wanting to stop at the figure of $150 per thousand cubic meters. Now Gazprom buys Turkmen gas for $100. In Ashgabat, if the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project is implemented to European markets, bypassing Russia, they will receive up to $300 per thousand cubic meters...

With similar calculations, a week later, on November 5-6, President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is leaving for a visit to Brussels. However, according to VN's informed sources at EU headquarters, the Turkmen president is unlikely to receive reliable guarantees of the high price that Europeans are willing to pay for Turkmen gas. First, Ashgabat must guarantee the availability of sufficient gas reserves to ensure that they fill pipelines through Russia, to China and Europe at the same time...

During the negotiations in Astana, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry once again “supported the need to make a decision for Kazakhstan to become the chairman of the OSCE in accordance with all the rules that exist in the organization.” It is worth noting the diplomacy of Sergei Lavrov, who did not mention that Astana submitted an application to head the OSCE already in 2009. This issue will be discussed for the second time at the end of November in Madrid at the OSCE Ministerial Council. Last year, a decision was not made due to a lack of consensus - on the very “rules” that Lavrov spoke about. A group of Western member countries led by the United States and Great Britain did not consider Kazakhstan's candidacy acceptable because the country's democratic processes and respect for human rights do not meet the standards adopted by the OSCE. Astana was given a year to “correct.”

The changes that occurred during this time in Kazakhstan did not seem to the West to be steps in the right direction. Nursultan Nazarbayev’s right to a lifelong presidency, enshrined in the constitution, the formation of a one-party parliament, criminal scandals shaking the leadership of Kazakhstan - all this, according to VN’s diplomatic sources in the OSCE, makes it impossible to satisfy Astana’s bid for the chairmanship in 2009. This is also well understood in Kazakhstan. It seems that they are ready to voluntarily, under a plausible pretext, postpone their application to 2011. The Western bloc of states in the OSCE can agree to this, provided that Kazakhstan fulfills the same demands that were presented to it before. And in 2009, the right to lead the OSCE may be entrusted to Lithuania, which claimed this position a year later, in 2010. If necessary, the West will help Vilnius financially.

Arkady DUBNOV