Conclusions from the output

Experts do not rule out the appearance of NATO bases in Georgia and the division of Abkhazia

Yesterday, the last train of 34 wagons and platforms with Russian military property of the former 12th Russian military base in the Adjarian city of Batumi crossed the border of Georgia and Armenia, went through the customs procedure and headed to the 102nd base in the city of Gyumri. Thus, the withdrawal of military equipment, weapons and supplies of Russian troops from Georgia was completed ahead of schedule - according to the plan, this was supposed to happen during 2008. The Georgian side confirmed that it has no claims regarding the transfer of the base. There are no more Russian troops in Georgia . Only peacekeepers remain in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

How will the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia change the situation in the region? Since this troop withdrawal was directly linked to the ratification of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), will the West take at least some steps in this direction? Well-known Russian military experts answered these questions from Vremya Novostey columnist Nikolai POROSKOV.

"The barracks have been cleared for NATO troops"

Anatoly TSYGANOK, head of the Center for Military Forecasting:

-- Barracks for NATO troops have been vacated in Georgia. Most likely these will be units of Turkey, since this country today has enormous influence on the Georgian leadership. All officers of the Georgian internal troops are trained at the Turkish-Georgian military college under the guidance of Turkish officers. The Ambassador of Georgia to Turkey is always present at each episode. Mikheil Saakashvili does not trust Georgian officers who trained in the Soviet Union and then in Russia and pushes them aside in every possible way. In general, the role of the armed forces is growing very sharply in Georgia. Moreover, the army is preparing to conduct police rather than military operations.

The stay of Russian peacekeepers in Transcaucasia will become significantly more complicated. Russia is wary of the controversial events in Georgia, and, apparently, it is no coincidence that large-scale exercises “Caucasian Frontier 2007” are currently being held in the North Caucasus Military District. Almost all the district's troops, the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army, more than a hundred combat vehicles, and army aviation were involved. According to unverified data, the Black Sea Fleet brought its ships into the waters for the first time. All this is being done in case Mr. Saakashvili decides to strike at Abkhazia and South Ossetia, including, naturally, our peacekeepers.

The withdrawal of Russian bases from Georgia is unlikely to encourage the West to ratify the CFE Treaty - they will come up with other reasons not to do so.

"Our bases in Georgia were not of great military importance"

Alexander SHARAVIN, director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis:

- I really hope that the withdrawal of our troops from Georgia will be at least somehow connected with a positive decision on the ratification of the CFE Treaty. Otherwise, Russia should not have taken such hasty steps as liquidating its bases. I think that there are preliminary agreements on this - Russia is scrupulously fulfilling everything it promised regarding Georgia.

It is clear that our bases in Georgia did not have much military significance, except perhaps politically. The problem of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains in that region. But I think Russia can find a compromise solution here, there are all the prerequisites for this. For example, the division of Abkhazia. I think that serious politicians in Georgia can join this option. I spoke to some of them. The essence of the division is that the eastern part of Abkhazia goes to Georgia, Georgian refugees settle there, they need to live somewhere. This option is acceptable to everyone, even to Georgian radicals who are incapable of any peace negotiations today. And the Abkhazians are ready for this. As for NATO, the alliance is unlikely to make efforts to fill Russian barracks with its soldiers. They just don't need it.

"We fulfill and even exceed all obligations"

Makhmut GAREEV, President of the Academy of Military Sciences, Army General:

- The West makes claims to Russia not only regarding Georgia, but also regarding Transnistria and other regions, so the current withdrawal of bases will not force the ratification and implementation of the CFE Treaty. There is no guarantee.

The only thing that can be taken into account is that this act of Russia shows the world community, including Georgia, that we are consistently fulfilling and even exceeding all our obligations. But for there to be progress, counter steps from the other side are needed.