Contract paradox

Russian-Ukrainian gas negotiations stuck on Turkmen issue

In two days (Monday and Tuesday), the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, and the Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine, Yuriy Boyko, were unable to agree on a gas supply scheme for the next three years. The gas supply contract has also not been signed since 2011 , although last week it was announced that the parties had found a fundamental pricing mechanism. Yesterday the negotiation process continued at the expert level. It seems that both Gazprom and the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of the republic want to approve a system of cooperation for the long term before a parliamentary coalition and a new government are formed in Ukraine. True, it is still not clear when this will happen, and it is possible that gas negotiations will have to start from scratch on New Year’s Eve.

Meanwhile, a rather strange political game is going on in the Ukrainian camp, significantly weakening Kyiv’s negotiating position. Its result has already been the emergence of an acceptable price for Ukraine - $160 per thousand cubic meters in 2008. Although, according to available documents, Gazprom has no reason to demand such an increase. But after this price was included in the draft Ukrainian budget, which was generally approved at yesterday’s government meeting (First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Ukraine Mykola Azarov said that the economy was ready to raise the price to $160), Moscow had a reason to take advantage of the situation .

As is known, according to the signed package of agreements between Gazprom (purchases gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), RosUkrEnergo (delivers it to the Ukrainian border) and Ukrgazenergo (imports it into Ukraine), the price of imported gas can only increase due to changes in the “economic conditions” . In other words, only if the purchase price of gas in Central Asia increases and the transit rate is revised in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Therefore, now Gazprom buys gas at $100 per thousand cubic meters, sells it to RUE for $101, and Ukrgazenergo pays $130. Deputy Chairman of the Board of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev recently said that the concern proceeds from the fact that In 2008, the price of Turkmen gas will not change, as stipulated in the three-year contract signed a year ago with Turkmengaz.

But here the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko played in favor of Gazprom, saying that a price of $160 per thousand cubic meters was acceptable to him. This figure was adopted by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who instructed Yuri Boyko to conduct negotiations. And Mr. Medvedev, on behalf of Gazprom, hastened to say that this price suits him.

However, it is impossible to calculate such a price without revising the parameters of existing contracts. And here there is an alternative: wait for the initiative of the Turkmen side to increase the selling price or propose to Ukraine to change the supply pattern. Gazprom offered Mr. Boyko to switch to a more transparent gas supply scheme, with a gradual increase in prices to the European level by 2011 (this has already been done in the contract with Belarus). However, Kyiv rejected these proposals, preferring to maintain the current scheme. That is why the Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin, experienced in gas affairs, admitted that the price “may be less than 160 (dollars per thousand cubic meters).” In any case, in his opinion, it “will suit Ukraine,” since “this is the lowest price in Europe.”

But this depends not on Moscow and Kyiv, but on Ashgabat, that is, on the readiness of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to fulfill the contract signed under the previous president. Obviously, this issue will be one of the key ones during the visit of Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov to the capital of Turkmenistan at the end of the week.

Alexey GRIVACHS