There is no gas for Russia

Last year's government decision on fuel supplies to power plants will not be implemented.

This week marks a year since the electric power “monument” appeared in Russia - the second power unit of the North-Western Thermal Power Plant in St. Petersburg , which remains idle to this day due to lack of gas. The head of RAO UES of Russia, Anatoly Chubais, failed to solve the gas supply problem within a year, although he repeatedly turned to Vladimir Putin and negotiated with Gazprom. Mr. Chubais believed that this situation could be corrected only in the event of a serious increase in domestic Russian gas prices - this is what, in his opinion, should eliminate the gas monopolist’s disinterest in increasing supplies to domestic power plants. The government approved the corresponding program for a gradual - until 2011 - transition to the principle of equal profitability of gas supplies to Russian industrial consumers and for export at the end of last year. However, it now turns out that this decision, which was made in haste and therefore, obviously not seriously thought through, is fraught with unpredictable consequences for the country’s economy.

The rise in oil prices and the subsequent increase in the cost of gas in long-term contracts with European consumers are such that in three years gas will be much more expensive than the $125 per thousand cubic meters calculated by government officials. Moreover, it is already openly stated that Gazprom in 2008-2009 will not be able to provide gas supplies to power plants in the volume approved a year ago by the Cabinet of Ministers. In particular, this was stated last week by Deputy General Director of Mezhregiongaz Igor Dmitriev. But Gazprom is not going to come up with an initiative to revise the parameters recorded in the protocol. “It’s not our competence,” explained Mr. Dmitriev. - We have determined what exactly we can do. It’s just that the start of gas supply to some of the facilities (mainly new power units - Ed. ) will be postponed to 2011-2012.”

As you know, a year ago the government recorded that until 2010 inclusive, gas prices for industry will grow according to a special schedule (by 15% in 2007, by 25% in 2008, by 23% in 2009). m and by 21% in 2010). According to government calculations, by the end of 2010 the average regulated price would have risen to $100 per thousand cubic meters, and after the introduction of a formula based on equal returns, to $125 per thousand cubic meters.

However, such modest price figures in 2011 are associated with a cunning calculation system: the authors of the forecast based the price of a barrel of oil at $54. According to official calculations of the Federal Tariff Service, if the formula were in effect now, industrial consumers, for example, in Moscow would already pay 4,100 rubles . ($164) per thousand cubic meters. Now the price of oil has risen to almost $100, which in nine months will be reflected in gas prices in Europe. At a price of $354 per thousand cubic meters, which Gazprom predicts for the middle of next year, the domestic price would soar to $220. There is no reason that in 2011 a barrel will cost significantly less than it does now. This means that Russian consumers - both the energy sector and industry - will have difficulty making payments for gas. Unless, of course, the government reconsiders last year's decision.

At the same time, last year’s government decision did not talk about reducing gas supplies to the domestic market. On the contrary, since it was the fruit of a separate agreement between Gazprom and RAO UES of Russia, it stipulates mandatory supply volumes only for electric power enterprises. According to the document, in 2007 power plants should receive 162.9 billion cubic meters of gas, in 2008 - 166.9 billion, in 2009 - 174.8 billion and in 2010 - 186 billion. Gas supplies to thermal power plants from Gazprom amount to 103 billion cubic meters. The remaining volume at the station must be sold by independent producers. And if this is not enough, then Gazprom will supply gas at higher prices - according to the government decree, the monopoly received the right to sell additional gas with an increase to the price established by the FTS (for the second half of 2007, the limit coefficient is 1.6, but at As regulated prices increase, the level of the allowable premium will decrease; for example, from January 1, 2008, Gazprom will be able to sell gas only 50% more expensive).

As Mr. Dmitriev said last week, RAO UES of Russia has requested 18 billion cubic meters of additional gas for next year. “But we are ready to give only 9.3 billion cubic meters,” he said. Last year, independent producers supplied about 51 billion cubic meters of gas to RAO enterprises (out of 62-63 billion that entered the Gazprom gas transportation system); this year this volume will be significantly lower. According to Vremya Novostei, according to Gazprom's forecast balance, in 2009 RAO enterprises can count on 13 billion cubic meters of additional gas. A significant breakthrough - 40 billion cubic meters of excess volume - is possible only in 2011, when Gazprom builds an onshore section of the North European Gas Pipeline (within the framework of which it is planned to solve the problem of gas shortages in the northwestern regions of the country).

So the start of supplies to the power plants TGK-1 (owned by Gazprom), power units of the Kostroma State District Power Plant (OGK-3), Konakovskaya State District Power Plant (OGK-5) and Kirishi State District Power Plant (OGK-6), planned by the General Scheme of Facilities Location, has been postponed for the next decade electric power industry. A better fate may await the second units of the Kaliningrad and North-West CHPPs (unlike those planned by the general scheme, they have already been built, but are idle). However, according to Vremya Novostei, despite the presence of political will to solve the gas problems of these facilities, full supplies to them can begin no earlier than 2009.

Alexey GRIVACHS