Translated material
President by default
Vladimir Putin has no right to campaign for his successor
A circle of daredevils is beginning to emerge who are going to challenge the presidential position from First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev , whose candidacy received the support of current President Vladimir Putin. As Maya Grishina, a member of the Central Election Commission, reported yesterday, 25 citizens immediately notified the Central Election Commission of their intention to compete for the highest government position. Among them are ex-Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov , world chess champion and leader of the United Civil Front Garry Kasparov , leader of the Democratic Party of Russia Andrei Bogdanov, Soviet dissident Vladimir Bukovsky , as well as former State Duma deputies Vladimir Ryzhkov and Nikolai Kuryanovich . All of them are self-nominated candidates.All the documents necessary at this stage have so far been provided only by Mr. Kasyanov. The rest must, by December 18, hold meetings of initiative groups of citizens who support candidates in their desire to fight for the people's good, and submit the relevant documents to the Central Election Commission, and then collect 2 million voter signatures. However, many will probably not get to this stage for various reasons. In particular, yesterday there were reports that Mr. Kasparov was forced to leave the race early: his fans were unable to find premises in Moscow for a meeting of the initiative group. Kasparovites claim that landlords, frightened by “administrative pressure,” did not enter into an agreement with them. The law requires that the CEC be notified of the time and place of the initiative meeting five days before the deadline for submitting self-nomination documents, that is, the deadline was yesterday, December 13.
In the meantime, the Central Election Commission expects the most serious applications from candidates next week - these will be the elected parties, who, by law, can decide on their nominees until December 25. At the same time, the parliamentary Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Liberal Democratic Party and United Russia are exempt from collecting signatures in support of their candidates. This benefit was also granted to A Just Russia, which entered the State Duma, but its leader Sergei Mironov decided to support Dmitry Medvedev in the elections. His candidacy is expected to be officially nominated at the United Russia congress on December 17.
Meanwhile, sociologists have already found that Mr. Medvedev's rating has jumped by 10% in just a few days. According to the Levada Center, 35% of Russians are now ready to vote for him, while in a similar survey a month ago 25% were going to support him. The survey with the participation of 1,600 people was conducted on December 7-10 in 46 regions of the country.
However, even 35% is not enough to win in the first round of voting, and the Kremlin will certainly try to do without the second. In theory, Vladimir Putin should share his sky-high rating with the “first vice”, as was done during the parliamentary campaign with United Russia. However, as Maya Grishina reminded Vremya Novostei correspondent, during the election campaign there are “great restrictions for persons holding public office.” Higher officials do not have the right to engage in election campaigning.
True, Vladimir Putin has already called on the people to support United Russia during a direct line with Russians, at a meeting with Krasnoyarsk road workers and, finally, in a special televised address to the nation a few days before the vote on December 2. However, the Central Election Commission each time came to the conclusion that at the time of his speech, Mr. Putin was not playing the role of president, but a candidate for deputy from United Russia. And candidate status allows the head of state to engage in campaigning.
Now Vladimir Putin is not running for office, and therefore has no right to campaign. “But you can, with the consent of the president, use his image or statements made earlier,” was the hint Ms. Grishina gave to the future headquarters of candidate Medvedev. In other words, the Kremlin successor still has legal grounds to run in the election race under the shadow of the super-popular “national leader,” and the Central Election Commission will not consider this a violation of the law.
The successor's victory does not depend on the president's rating
The number of Russians ready to vote for any successor to the current president has not changed fundamentally in the eight years that have passed since Boris Yeltsin openly proposed Vladimir Putin as a successor to Russians. Although Boris Yeltsin’s rating at the time was no more than 4%, 52.52% voted for Vladimir Putin in the first round of the presidential election. Now, according to data released yesterday by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), 57% indicate that most likely in the next presidential elections they will vote for any politician openly supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although, according to the same VTsIOM, the approval rating of Vladimir Putin’s activities by the population in the first week of December was 81%, and 64% were ready to vote for the current head of state in the upcoming presidential elections.
The successor will be supported by the majority of United Russia supporters (77%, 6% against). Supporters of A Just Russia are inclined to support any candidate named by Mr. Putin (the survey was conducted before the appearance of Dmitry Medvedev's candidacy) (47%, 27% against). Opponents of the likely successor will be a significant part of the LDPR supporters (55% would rather vote for another politician, and 26% for Putin's successor) and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (51 and 22%, respectively).
At the same time, ordinary Russians, as well as journalists and political scientists, did not know who could become a successor. According to VTsIOM, 18% of Russians named First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as the most likely successor, 16% of respondents expected Putin to support another First Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov. Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov's chances of becoming a successor were highly assessed by 14% of respondents. Policy Department