The main trend of the past year on the Russian stock market was a sharp change in investors' priorities: their interest moved from the oil and gas and financial sectors to the consumer sector and industrial production. The latter was caused by the actions of the state, whose industrial policy will apparently continue next year. Therefore, market participants believe that the rapid growth of industry will last throughout 2008, and urge private investors to pay special attention to shares of enterprises in the real sector.

In 2007, the stock market felt a change in priority directions for the development of the domestic economy. In two years, according to RTS industry indices, the top three have been completely renewed. The financial sector, which held the leading position in 2005 and 2006 (growth by 169 and 138%, respectively), by the end of 2007 not only did not become a leader, but also looked worse than the market (23.5 versus 26.2 % as of December 19). Retail is losing its position less vigorously, but in 2005 it was second (an increase of 89%), and in 2006 and 2007 it was only fifth (51.5 and 27% as of December 19, 2007). The oil and gas sector, which confidently entered the top three in 2005 (growth by 85%), in 2007 became the worst sector of the market (growth by mid-December by only 8%).

In 2008, the prospects for the financial and oil and gas sectors are also unimportant. According to the Federal Reserve, the global liquidity crisis, of which the Russian financial system was one of the victims, will end no earlier than the middle of next year. And taking into account the inevitable recovery period, which will last at least until the end of 2008, domestic banks and financial institutions can forget about obtaining cheap liquidity on world financial markets until the end of next year.

In the oil and gas sector, the situation is little better: On December 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report reporting an increase in total global oil production in 2007 due to the efforts of Mexico, China and Brazil. If the forecast comes true, then it is likely that oil prices will decline next year. A fall in prices coupled with high cost inflation could seriously reduce the profits of Russian oil companies.

However, some participants in the domestic stock market believe in the prospects of the financial and oil and gas sectors. However, they propose to focus on internal factors: state support of the financial system and investments in oil refining.

Here is the opinion of Leonid Slipchenko, an analyst at Uralsib FC: “The trend in 2008 is the same: we are betting that the nomination of Dmitry Medvedev to the presidency will lead to an increase in government spending. Investments in infrastructure will be increased - transport, processing, and so on. That is, investments will be directed to industries that produce products with higher added value. Therefore, you should invest in the securities of companies that are either close to the state or are engaged in such projects. This is, for example, Gazprom and Rosneft. and VTB, as the largest Russian banks, will also look good."

Angelika Genkel, an analyst at Alfa Bank, believes that “in 2008, the RTS oil and gas index will apparently reduce its growth lag observed since the beginning of 2007. The low dynamics, combined with a revision of our long-term forecast for the Brent price to $85 per barrel, indicates on the potential for growth in profitability of this sector. We recommend purchasing a basket of shares of mid-cap companies, which allows you to invest in both oil production and oil refining."

And yet, the main investment idea of 2008, which market experts point to, is investment in industries focused on domestic demand. Moreover, by the end of 2007, the real sector had already become the leader, and the telecommunications and retail sectors were growing better than the market.

One of the main factors for the success of industry and metallurgy in the past year was state support for strategic (and not only) industries, expressed, in particular, in the creation of a number of large industry holdings. Apparently, the state is not going to abandon its active industrial policy in the coming year. Moreover, since the real start of work of development institutions is scheduled for 2008, the flow of government investment in Russian industry in 2008 may increase significantly.

This is the opinion of Denis Filippov, head of the brokerage operations department at Renaissance Online: “Next year the state will actively invest money in supporting strategic industries - electric power, aircraft and shipbuilding, the processing industry, as well as in infrastructure development and construction. Therefore, now, in our opinion, shares of distribution companies, hydroelectric power plants (which next year will switch to a single share of HydroOGK), road and bridge construction companies, airports, ferrous metallurgy enterprises (NLMK, MMK, Mechel), transport companies ( "Novoship", PMP). The favorites may be shares of companies with state participation, in particular Gazprom and Transneft, which should benefit from rising gas prices and higher tariffs."

And here is the opinion of Olga Shkred, leading analyst at Financial Bridge Investment Company: “The most promising sectors are those focused on domestic demand: thanks to the growth of real incomes of the population, they will not suffer even if the rate of economic growth in the United States decreases. This is the consumer sector in which we highlight shares of Magnit and Wimm-Bill-Dann, and the development sector, in which the shares of Open Investments are promising. Also, thanks to the reorientation to meet growing domestic demand and continued high economic growth in China, iron and steel companies, among which we highlight MMK, will benefit. and NLMK.

Head of the analytical department of Aton Management Company Andrey Vernikov reminds that “next year investors should not forget about the securities of companies in the energy sector, despite the fact that in the second half of 2007 they showed not the most confident dynamics. At the same time, I would like to warn investors: maximum energy levels will probably be reached in April 2008, but in July, after the cessation of trading in RAO UES shares, the securities of the spin-off subsidiaries may go down - many will prefer to get rid of unnecessary, low-liquidity securities from the energy shares that will appear on the stock exchange next year. year, it is worth paying attention to HydroOGK. This company will be the largest in the segment in terms of capitalization and installed capacity, and plans to invest in renewable energy sources make it very attractive."

Semyon Birg, strategy analyst at Finam Investment Company, believes that “in the coming year, the prospects for economic growth in Russia will be very attractive, so we recommend increasing the share of shares of companies whose products are focused on the domestic Russian market in portfolios. We especially highlight grain and sugar holding "Razgulay", the leader of the juice market "Lebedyansky", the retail chain "Magnit", producers of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers "Kuibyshevazot" and "Ammofos" and the largest producer of silver - "Polymetal".

Denis Filippov emphasizes that “the strengthening of the ruble and the growing welfare of the population should support shares of consumer sector companies and retailers, such as Wimm-Bill-Dann, Kalina, Lebedyansky, Veropharm, Magnit.” In addition, ", we maintain a positive outlook for shares of mineral fertilizer producers, which retain good growth potential against the backdrop of a possible further increase in prices for their products."

Another argument in favor of investing in second-tier securities is that during the rapid growth of the Russian market in 2005-2006, these shares were undervalued - investors and speculators preferred to buy growing blue chips. In 2007, the trend began to change: the growth rate of the RTS-2 second-tier securities index for the first time outstripped the growth rate of the RTS index (36.1 versus 26.2% as of December 19).

Angelika Genkel comments on the situation: “The middle echelon continues to grow ahead of the curve. Investors can still make money on this trend: the RTS-2 growth reserve to our estimate of its fair level (2800 points) is equal to 12%. We advise building a basket of oil and gas, metallurgical and mid-tier mining companies, as well as individual small and medium-cap companies. Oil refining companies Ufaneftekhim and smaller alternative oil producing companies (Bashneft, Slavneft-Megionneftegaz, RITEK) are better represented in RTS-2. The metallurgy sector is still attractive. and mining. Since the beginning of the year, the corresponding industry index has grown by 50%, benefiting from global growth in demand for non-ferrous metals, as well as domestic demand for pipes and steel. National projects in Sochi and Vladivostok will ensure further rapid growth of the Russian construction industry and will support it. demand for metallurgical products in the coming period."

MARIA GLUSHENKOVA, PAVEL CHUVILYAEV

The case of the industrial party