Translated material
Kosovo: a problem without a solution
Serbia will hold presidential elections on January 20 next year. Probably, soon after this, the main international epic of the year will end - Kosovo will declare independence.
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Serbia will hold presidential elections on January 20 next year. Probably, shortly after this, the main international epic of the year will end - Kosovo will declare independence. How it will end, only God knows. Serbian radicals from the "Prince Lazar's Guard" promise to defend the "holy for every Serb" lands with weapons in their hands. Albanian veterans of the Kosovo war say they will not allow the Kosovars to be deprived of their "blood-won freedom." The UN Security Council has failed to find a solution to the problem that satisfies both Serbs and Albanians. Moscow and Washington have not reached an agreement. The New Times followed events in the Balkans closely throughout the year.
Idriz Seferi Express newspaper Pristina
The fight for Kosovo's sovereignty began 17 years ago and was supposed to end in November. The postponed status threatens to turn into new violence, as happened in March 2004, when 19 people were injured - 11 Albanians and 8 Serbs. Then the world finally realized that the Kosovo Albanians were at the limit: with the departure of Milosevic, they gained freedom, but never found a future. A whole generation of people has grown up in Kosovo who no longer believe in anything and are tired of waiting. Years of repression of the Milosevic regime, 12 thousand victims of the war, almost a million deported or left for neighboring countries (Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro), 3 thousand missing. Veterans of the Kosovo war say they are ready to take up arms again if a decision on Kosovo's status is delayed again. The Serbs, in turn, created the "Guard of Prince Lazar" and threaten to launch a campaign against Kosovo. Perhaps, on both sides, these are nothing more than loud statements. Serbian President Boris Tadic made it clear to his fellow citizens that a new war would only mean one thing: Serbia would lose Kosovo forever. No, there will be no war; not only because the region is controlled by NATO troops, but no one wants it and no one needs it. How the negotiations between the US and Russia will end is hard to say. The Americans will try to negotiate with the Russians by promising special rights for Kosovo's Serbian minority. The Kosovo Albanians hope that the US will take their side, if only because the Americans have promised them their protection. The Serb proposal is full autonomy for Kosovo, independence without sovereignty. In this way, Serbian politicians believe, it will be possible to satisfy both sides: the Kosovars will receive independence, the Serbs - the preservation of territorial integrity. However, Kosovo is convinced that this option is too late: in the first half of the 1990s, before the war, it could have worked. Now - hardly. According to the latest polls, 50% of two million Kosovo are ready for protests, 3% will fight for independence with weapons in their hands. Eight years of de facto independence have allowed the Kosovars to appreciate the benefits of freedom, and it is hard to imagine that they would now give it up and agree to have their region become part of Serbia again. And the Serbs are already accustomed to the fact that Kosovo exists separately. Another thing is Serbian politicians who use the issue of the status of Kosovo and the situation of the Kosovo Serbs as a bargaining chip for patriotism.
Natasha Bogovich
newspaper "Danas" Belgrade
Any Serbian politician who is of sound mind and firm memory and does not want to lose power will say that Kosovo is the holy Serbian land, and therefore it is impossible to recognize the independence of the region under any circumstances. However, no one knows the answer to another important question, namely: what would Serbia do if it regained full control over Kosovo? Opinion polls show that there is still a large number of opponents of Kosovo's independence in Serbia. But they also show that a growing number of Serbian citizens (56% in one poll) consider dividing Kosovo into Serbian and Albanian enclaves the best solution. And if back in 2005 87% of Serbs considered the independence of Kosovo absolutely unacceptable, then in the next year there were 74% of them. It looks like a trend. The authorities in Belgrade talk about defending Kosovo and Metohija through diplomatic means and rule out the possibility of war. Nevertheless, there are those in Serbia who call to arms. The recently created "Prince Lazar's Guard" stands for the defense of Kosovo by all means, speaks of the coming "decisive battle for Kosovo" and the war "until complete liberation."
In Serbia, the myth of Kosovo has been created for centuries, and therefore even those politicians who understand that Kosovo is already a piece cut off cannot afford to say anything else if, of course, they want to remain in power. Kosovo is only theoretically part of Serbia: not a single Serbian politician can get into Kosovo territory, except perhaps the Serbian enclaves of the region; in Kosovo there are different laws than in Serbia, a different system of power; other currency and other documents are in circulation. But to announce this reality publicly is considered a betrayal of the national interest. Only one party - the Liberal Democrats - frankly says that the independence of Kosovo with guaranteed protection of the rights of minorities is the best solution for Serbia. Waving patriotic banners is one thing, ranting about the struggle “to the last drop of blood” (as a rule, someone else’s) is another, and the wise leadership of the country has nothing to do with either the first or the second. Serbia is not ready to hear the news of the secession of Kosovo, just as it was not ready to accept Montenegro's decision on independence. But even less Serbia is ready to fight - no matter who and no matter how saber-rattling.
Fedor Lukyanov Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine
No. 25 of 30 July ... A unilateral declaration of Kosovo's independence will split the European Union. The UN mission in Kosovo is already estimating how many governments will recognize independence. In the Western world, a negative position will definitely be taken by:
• Spain (due to Basque separatism)
• Greece and Cyprus (because of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus; in addition, Athens has long been embarrassed by the presence of a sovereign country in the neighborhood named Macedonia, which coincides with the name of the historical province of Greece)
• Slovakia and Romania (due to large Hungarian minorities)
• Belgium (due to problems between the Walloons and the Flemings)
• France (due to Corsica) Recognize independence:
• USA
• Great Britain
• Germany
• Italy This is likely to be the case in Scandinavia. Eastern and Central Europe will follow in the wake of the United States. In the rest of the world, Kosovo's independence is recognized by:
• Türkiye and most Muslim states Do not recognize:
• Russia
• China (due to Taiwan)
• Azerbaijan (Karabakh), Moldova (Transnistria), Ukraine (Crimea), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) - all of them can easily find themselves in the position of Serbia. On the contrary, Armenia (again because of Karabakh) would benefit from this.
Ethnic composition of the province of Kosovo
| Year | Source | Albanians | Serbs |
| 1899 | Austrian Statistical Office | 182,650 (47.88%) | 166,700 (43.7%) |
| 1921 | Census of the United Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes | 288,907 (65.8%) | 114,095 (27.8%) |
| 1971 | Federal Statistical Commission of Yugoslavia | 916,168 (73.7%) | 228,264 (18.4%) |
| 1991 | Federal Statistical Commission of Yugoslavia | 1,596,072 (81.6%) | 194,190 (9.9%) |
| 2007 | Official Statistical Agency of Kosovo | 1,932,000 (92%) | 111,300 (5.3%) |