Breathing one gas

The Kremlin may bet on Tymoshenko

Breathing one gas. Yulia Tymoshenko celebrated the assumption of the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine by fulfilling her promise to return Soviet deposits in Sberbank, for which queues had already lined up, and by dismantling with Naftogaz Ukrainy. The next step is gas negotiations with Russia. And here surprises await everyone: an alliance of two prime ministers, Tymoshenko and Putin, may soon be formed.

Andrey Kapustin
Kyiv

In the beginning there was a scandal. Not that very powerful, but loud enough. On January 8, almost all Ukrainian media reported that Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko could not get through to Sberbank (Oshchadbank - Ukrainian) for a whole hour. And, although the news clearly does not attract the status of "top" from the power-secular chronicle, almost all citizens of the country, whose childhood, youth, youth and maturity passed in the Soviet Union, reacted to it. Since the head of the Ukrainian government called not just Sberbank, but a multi-channel hotline, where the affected depositors of the Soviet Sberbank were to be advised on the return of deposits that burned out at the time of the collapse of the USSR.

nursing mother

It is difficult to say whether Tymoshenko really wasted a precious hour of the prime minister's time on calls or was it a background PR preparation for the action. But the fact that deposits are beginning to return is a fact. And this despite the fact that it was the return of the lost money promised in the elections in the blitz regime that was called Tymoshenko's most populist step. In which, by and large, no one believed. Neither voters, nor experts, nor, of course, opponents. An, no. Less than a month has passed since the election of the BYuT leader as prime minister, as the process has begun. Let not all the savings at once. But $200 in the hands of each is also a sum. Moreover, within three days after the registration procedure simplified to a minimum.

Little of. On Thursday, Tymoshenko appeared on the air of all leading TV channels. In a modest dress. Without a single decoration. And she personally told the Ukrainians what exactly needs to be done in order to receive money and what numbers to call for advice. He added that the government will do everything to ensure that this gift is not depreciated by inflationary processes.

Against this background, an additional message was injected into the media that Tymoshenko herself does not know exactly how long she has been given to be in the prime minister's chair, but she will do everything possible to fulfill her promises. And there is no doubt that after the population receives the first hryvnia, the prime minister's rating will soar to unprecedented heights. Moreover, the population, by and large, is not interested in what bins these same hryvnias are extracted from and how this distribution will affect the state of the Ukrainian economy. Although we are talking about billions. Moreover, not hryvnia, but dollars.

Premier Resources

It is clear that Tymoshenko has reserves. Both explicit (in the form of the same gold and foreign exchange reserve) and hidden - in the form of hundreds and hundreds of budget millions that go into all sorts of black holes. Like the same coal industry, which traditionally works more for acceptance than for return. And which Tymoshenko wants to thoroughly shake up. True, this desire is opposed by the interests of the "coal barons", who are unlikely to want to part with the feeder just like that.

It is another matter that these stash, reserves and resources may not be enough for everyone. Moreover, the 2008 budget was rewritten under the new price for Russian gas for Ukraine - $179.5 per thousand cubic meters. That largely influenced the size of the budget deficit. And even before moving to work in the government, Tymoshenko stated that this price for Ukraine was unbearable and should be reviewed. Even if not in the direction of reducing gas prices, but in the direction of increasing tariffs for Ukrainian transit. At the same time, Tymoshenko did not leave her favorite topic for a minute: the withdrawal of the Swiss intermediary company RosUkrEnergo from the process of Ukrainian-Russian gas relations. In it, one half of the shares belongs to the Russian "Gazprom", and the second - to the Ukrainian side, but under the Swiss flag. Since 1994, RosUkrEnergo has been monopoly supplying all Russian and Turkmen gas to Ukraine.

With the advent to the Cabinet (government), the intentions of the Ukrainian Prime Minister have not changed. Is that added information. Including the fact that the main Ukrainian gas office of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy, and there are practically no gas reserves in underground gas storages (UGS).

According to Oleg Dubina, the new head of Naftogaz Ukrainy, Ukrainian UGS facilities have been leased to some commercial structures for 25 years and there are only 651 million cubic meters of gas directly owned by Naftogaz Ukrainy. That is, nothing. Although the Cabinet of Ministers of Yanukovych reported last fall that 31.2 billion cubic meters are stored in underground storage facilities. This means that the country is ready for the heating season. But, based on the information of the current Cabinet of Ministers, it turns out that 30.549 billion cubic meters have a very distant relation to the heating season, since they also belong to some commercial structures. Which, in turn, was one of the factors that actually led Naftogaz (which, by the way, owns the Ukrainian gas pipeline) to bankruptcy. Along the way, it turned out that the losses of this company, which does not have a gas balance for 2008, amounted to more than a billion dollars last year.

Timoshenko-Putin format

Since the Yanukovych government has resigned, it will not be easy to find out whether Naftogaz was really preparing for bankruptcy with a subsequent redistribution of the pipe. But if the truth becomes known, the country will be pleased with high-profile criminal trials.

However, the main thing for Tymoshenko now is to resolve the gas problem, ignoring all force majeure. To do this, she is going to visit Moscow in the near future and meet with her future colleague. I mean, with Vladimir Putin. Which, in turn, could become a turning point in the difficult Ukrainian-Russian relations. First of all, gas. First, if desired, Tymoshenko is able to charm even the most ardent misogynist. Secondly, both Putin and Timoshenko speak the same gas language. Thirdly, the establishment of a Tymoshenko-Putin dialogue may influence the withdrawal of RosUkrEnergo from the market (Dmitry Medvedev is also a supporter of this option), which may start work on a direct scheme: Gazprom - Naftogaz Ukrainy. Fourth, in a paradoxical way, the Kremlin, which in any case needs to stake on someone in Kyiv, can find in the face of Tymoshenko some kind of sane partner. Including in foreign policy issues. In addition, there is no one else to bet on in Ukraine today. Anyway, until...