The new configuration of Russian power, which has just begun to take shape, resembles a two-headed bear. More precisely, if you use the "Albanian language", the adherent of which is our future president - the two-headed Medved. The contours of the system are not completely clear, but already now everyone is beginning to be interested in questions: will the new structure of power correspond to the tasks of modernization and reforms, or is it "sharpened" for Russia's habitual movement along a special path in accordance with the mysterious "Putin's plan"? What changes await this system, what are the expectations of the elite within it? And what do the possible changes mean for the country and its citizens? So far there are more questions than answers. But The New Times has already tried to understand what surprises can be expected from the two-headed Medved
The Five Commandments of the Successor. Will the duumvirate of man and labrador be established in Russia?
Fearing once again to get into trouble, since December 17 last year, experts have put forward, one after another, at least a dozen different interpretations of Vladimir Putin's decision to become the head of the White House. They say that Vladimir Vladimirovich may take the post of prime minister, but after a while he will set sail anyway. Or vice versa, he will quickly regain the presidency. And that Putin and Medvedev will certainly quarrel. And as if the higher officials are already briskly running "under the carpet" from under the weakening hand of Putin under the high hand of Medvedev. And finally, that the top of the law enforcement agencies will certainly rebel against Putin (Medvedev) as soon as the first leaves, and the second tries to move into the malachite apartments in the Senate building. If Putin is regularly read the morning papers, then in his sleep he probably feels like a cyberhero from a movie by the Wachowski brothers and elegantly, like a spinning propeller, dodges bullets and fist attacks from local politicized security officials.
Jumping is scary
Putin would very much like to leave the imperious Olympus, interlocutors in the Kremlin admit. But the uncompromising struggle of the factions in his entourage, which he tried in vain to put out for many months in a row and of which he eventually became a hostage, made his “leap” absolutely impossible. The cost of Putin's exit from the game straight into transnational business is given by the persistent publications of Russian and, most importantly, foreign publications about his fortune of $ 40 billion and excerpts from the report "Alternative Options for the Future of Russia until 2017" published by the American Center Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). One of the scenarios, if anyone forgot, suggested the assassination of Putin on January 7 this year, immediately after the Christmas service in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior ... Putin, thank God, is alive. He will become prime minister, say the administration. And he will stay for exactly as long as he deems necessary to ensure his safety, freedom of action for his business agents and the inviolability of assets under his control.
However, Putin's systemic concession to his entourage, expressed in his agreement to retain the post of head of government, does not at all look final. By mid-January, the Kremlin and law enforcement agencies were talking about a regrouping of the main players in the power elite, which had recovered from the November-December shock.
The loss of the leaders of the most influential security clan, Deputy Chief of Staff Igor Sechin and FSB Director Nikolai Patrushev, who failed to insist on a “third term,” immediately affected their positions in the apparatus and business. On the other hand, representatives of the opposing power conclave, FSO director Yevgeny Murov and his first deputy Viktor Zolotov, feel like a clear winner. According to rumors, they managed to establish good relations with the successor.
Falling off rooftops hurts
As early as December 11, the indefatigable Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika (behind whose backs Patrushev and Sechin's strong-arm opponents are easily guessed) won Putin's support for a bill according to which about 60% of criminal cases investigated by the Investigative Committee under the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation will be transferred to the jurisdiction of law enforcement agencies. The inquiry is supervised by the Prosecutor General's Office. And therefore, the temporarily torn off fruitful piece of the "prosecutor's land" will return to it, on which the well-being of the corporation dressed in acid-blue uniforms is based. Particularly serious crimes will remain behind the Sledkom, but they, as a rule, are committed by not the most wealthy citizens. The official position of another loyal member of the clan, Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliyev, is considered extremely unstable, to whom the administration has just “wrapped up” the staff list of the central apparatus of the Ministry of Internal Affairs prepared by him.
Not only that: the Lubyanka generals are frightened by rumors about Patrushev's impending resignation. They say that after the November-December events, several new contenders formed at once for his chair. Moreover, Nikolai Platonovich, according to rumors, is not even personally acquainted with other of them. The Russian owners of TNK-BP, friendly to the Lubyanka leadership, face the prospect of an involuntary sale of their shares to Gazprom. Gradually, the top management of Vnesheconombank and even Rosneft, which the Kremlin’s “roof” can no longer help to “settle” with the same Gazprom, for example, in the Sakhalin-1 project, is gradually “getting rid of”.
Don't offend friends
All this, of course, does not mean that both Putin's paladins - Sechin and Patrushev - can be fearlessly put an end to. Putin has too much to do with these people, and they know even more about him. The restrained information campaign of some publications, with all these "Putin's billions", "the assassination of the president", "Yakunin's dictatorship", "Medvedev's betrayal", clearly aimed primarily at the future head of state and the new configuration of power that is being formed around him, does not give Putin this forget. The head of state is forced to treat each of them (and their creatures) politely, almost gently, like a sapper with an anti-tank mine. Or, say, like Emperor Alexander I with Count von Palen - the organizer of the palace coup on March 11-12, 1801, which brought His Majesty to power. In addition, in the hands of Putin's offended comrades-in-arms, another relevant instrument of pressure is the threat of breaking the scenario of the presidential campaign that is comfortable for Medvedev. Chief of Staff Sergei Sobyanin is said to have had to use a lot of eloquence to convince Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov not to withdraw his candidacy. If Medvedev had entered the elections only against Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Andrei Bogdanov, the West simply would not have recognized him.
While Putin is engaged in painful bargaining with Sechin and Patrushev, two other thunderous players are trying to jump into the chair of the future president's chief of staff.
Run fast for slippers
On December 21, Sobyanin reluctantly went on vacation to head the campaign headquarters of Dmitry Medvedev. The day before, in the course of a decisive explanation with the President immediately after the meeting of the State Council "On the implementation of the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation for 2007" on December 19, Sergei Semenovich, according to rumors, said that such an appointment looks like an unmotivated resignation. According to the Kremlin, he can be understood. Dmitry Medvedev is in dire need of an ideological guru and political manager, and Sobyanin is obviously not suitable for this role. It turns out that Surkov, having become acting. head of the administration, in fact became the main person in the campaign headquarters.
But the president was relentless, and then Sobyanin first withdrew and severely adjusted the plan proposed by Surkov for the next pre-election trips of the main candidate, limited to ten regions not too far from the capital. (Vladislav Yuryevich allegedly wanted to accompany the future owner in his communication with his subjects. But at the same time he did not want to leave Moscow for a long time in order to keep up with the “rule” of the administration.) In addition, the newly made head of the election headquarters resolutely rejected Surkov’s attempts to secure a monopoly on “ access to the body”: now he will accompany Medvedev around the country. In addition, Sobyanin did not allow Surkov to create the post of second deputy chairman of the Central Election Commission specifically for his protege, deputy head of the presidential department for domestic policy Leonid Ivlev. Ivlev simply replaced the retired ordinary CEC member Igor Fedorov.
Finally, the two courtiers did not share among themselves the platform from which the future president should announce his program. First, under the auspices of Sobyanin, they planned a speech by Dmitry Medvedev at an extraordinary congress of the Russian Bar Association on January 29. However, it seems that Surkov managed to convince his future patron to do it earlier: on January 22, Medvedev is expected to speak at the All-Russian Civil Forum, which will be held by the Public Chamber under Surkov's tutelage. It is characteristic that Medvedev, who is still traveling around the country, has not uttered a word about big politics. As if someone gave his word of honor: before the official performance - no, no.
Loyalty of Labradors
Either on January 22, or on January 29, the rumble in the stalls will subside, and Russian presidential candidate Dmitry Medvedev, having stepped onto the stage and mentally leaning against the door frame, will try to catch what will mark his presidential century in the distant echoes of his own throne speech.
And touching listeners will follow with a thousand binoculars and each one will guess their fate, smaller. Looking at these maneuvers, the top of the federal nomenklatura and super-big business will try to understand what the configuration of the new government will be: either a duumvirate of Vladimir Putin and his beloved dog Koni, or a system led by a real first person named Medvedev. And his personal Labrador.
