Translated material
Munich account
Sergei Ivanov called on the West not to be afraid of Russia's desire to become a superpower
The International Security Conference in Munich began to attract close attention from the world community. The tone was set a year ago by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who subjected a high-ranking meeting in the Bavarian capital to a real shake-up. At the time, Mr. Putin gave perhaps the most famous speech of his presidential career. A speech that in the West was actively compared to Winston Churchill's legendary Fulton speech in 1946, which launched the Cold War.A year ago, Vladimir Putin sharply accused the West, primarily the United States, of “imposing its system of law in economics, politics, and the humanitarian sphere on other states,” in an effort to deliberately weaken Russia’s role on the world stage and lead humanity to a fragile unipolar world.
However, this time, although Russia was represented by a politician with a reputation as a “hawk” - First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, his speech partially lost its global significance, since the West already knows that this is not Putin’s successor.
At yesterday's meeting, which concluded the 44th Munich Conference , the soloists were Sergei Ivanov and US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. However, this time there was no particular dispute between Moscow and the West, although the speeches once again demonstrated the depth of disagreements between Russia and its Western partners. The main theme of the conference was stated in its very thematic title: “A world in chaos - altered balances of power, lack of strategies?”
Sergei Ivanov first spoke with Robert Gates on the sidelines of a one-on-one conference yesterday. They communicated in English, without translators. In the presence of journalists, they exchanged only a couple of routine phrases about collective responsibility in the fight against international terrorism.
But the performances of both did not disappoint the guests of the conference and the journalists covering its work. Speech by Sergei Ivanov on the topic set by the organizers “Where is Russia going?” was imbued with pacifying language and sparkled with friendliness towards partners in the fight against terrorism. The speaker accompanied his theses with a constant smile.
The leitmotif was the call not to be afraid of Russia. The First Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that the country is becoming richer, its influence on global processes is growing and will continue to grow. However, at the same time, Russia “does not pose a greater threat to the security of other countries,” the speaker emphasized. He brought to the attention of those gathered the country's development indicators until 2020, formulated on February 8 by President Vladimir Putin at an extended meeting of the State Council in Moscow. The main thing is that by 2020 Russia should become one of the “five” countries leading in the world in terms of gross domestic product. Ivanov, the West should not be afraid of the growth of the Russian economy: “We are not trying to buy up the entire Old World with our petrodollars. It’s just that by letting foreign investors in, we objectively expect adequate response actions.” In the meantime, he complained, the ratio of accumulated mutual investments is one to ten in favor of the European Union.
Sergei Ivanov assured that Russia is fulfilling and will fulfill all its obligations regarding energy supplies. The First Deputy Prime Minister recalled that for this purpose, Russia, together with Germany, has already begun construction of the North European gas pipeline, known as Nord Stream. The implementation of the South Stream project is also entering the practical phase. “We are not striving for any energy expansion, but simply, using existing realities, trying to obtain maximum economic benefit,” Mr. Ivanov emphasized.
A significant place in the speech of the Russian representative at the conference in Munich was occupied by such an important aspect of security as the preparation of a new agreement on strategic offensive weapons (START) . It should replace the corresponding Russian-American treaty, which expires in 2009. The new document should provide for the reduction of strategic offensive arms by all countries that have nuclear weapons: “The START I treaty must be replaced by a regime that will continue to ensure maximum predictability in this vitally important area for all mankind.” According to the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, this is an area of international relations where Russia and the United States not only could, but simply must show leadership. Later at a press conference, Mr. Ivanov recalled that Russia and the United States continue consultations not only on START, but also on American missile defense (ABM).
Mr. Ivanov also confirmed the invariability of the Russian position on the problem of the status of the Serbian region of Kosovo: “If the independence of Kosovo is declared, this will be a precedent, it will violate international law. I think we will open Pandora's box. Russia does not agree with the declaration of independence of Kosovo, not because “the Russians are bigger Serbs than themselves,” but because “we want to remain within the field of international law and not create a precedent.” “If the European Union recognizes Kosovo, Northern Cyprus will also have to recognize it. This will create a serious problem,” said Sergei Ivanov, calling on the Serbs and Albanians to reach a negotiated solution. By the way, the day before, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke in Munich, demanding that the world community recognize the independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Sergei Ivanov did not rule out that if Kosovo’s independence is recognized without the consent of the Serbs, events in the world will develop “like a domino principle.” However, he assured that “Russia is not going to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia the day after recognizing the independence of Kosovo.”
Serbian President Boris Tadic, re-elected on February 3, voiced an equally tough position on Kosovo at the Munich Security Conference. In a speech at Friday's dinner, he called for the resumption of bilateral negotiations on the future of Kosovo and warned the European Union against fueling the process of declaring unilateral independence for the region. He did not name the specific consequences of such a move, but warned that the alternative to resuming negotiations would be “a dangerous leap into the dark unknown, taken at a time of great global turbulence.”
The topic of Kosovo came up in Munich when resolving an important personnel issue. Yesterday at the conference it was announced the appointment of 62-year-old German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger as the new head of the organizing committee of the Munich forums. He will replace their permanent organizer Horst Teltschik in this post, who decided to resign after ten years of work. Ischinger represented the European Union in negotiations on the status of Kosovo under the auspices of the UN in 2007.
If Serbia has already found its “new old” president, then in Russia the presidential elections are still ahead. When asked whether the Russian leadership is striving to form a “Chinese model” in Russian political life, Sergei Ivanov answered negatively. According to him, Russia is distinguished from China by its multi-party system: “Today four candidates are fighting for the right to be elected Russian president.” And, smiling meaningfully, he added: “And not two, as in some countries.”
Commenting on Ivanov's speech, local observers noted his calming tone. Christian Hacke, professor of political science at the University of Bonn, told Vremya Novostei that “the current speech of the Russian representative in Munich was structured significantly more diplomatically compared to last year’s speech by President Putin. Heaven and earth! In this sense, the Russian First Deputy Prime Minister showed more flexibility in dialogue with Western partners.” “At the same time, in this soft shell lies Russia’s tough policy. This is illustrated by the example of the irreconcilable position on Kosovo. Russia's relations with the European Union are deteriorating. Russia is trying to block the formation of democracy in the countries of the former USSR and is more likely to cooperate with authoritarian regimes,” the expert believes.
As for the American Robert Gates, the head of the Pentagon paid great attention to the fight against terrorism and the topic of Afghanistan. In recent days, at all conceivable military-political levels, the Pentagon has demanded an increase in the number of German troops in Afghanistan and the expansion of its presence to the southern regions of the country. Mr. Gates arrived in Munich from Vilnius, where he raised this problem with colleagues from NATO member countries.
On the eve of the Munich conference, the Germans, reluctant to increase troops and send soldiers to the dangerous south of Afghanistan, tried to smooth the conflict by announcing an additional deployment of more than 200 elite soldiers to the Hindu Kush in the northeast to lead a rapid reaction force there.
It seems that the Germans managed to calm the tension. In Munich, Robert Gates did not even remember the idea of sending German units to the Afghan south and unexpectedly declared during the discussion that Germany should continue its mission in the calmer northern regions of Afghanistan: “The Germans are doing a great job in the north. These people should do what they do best.”
Nevertheless, the Pentagon chief again voiced his thesis about the inadmissibility of a “two-class NATO”: “In NATO, some members of this alliance should not have the advantage of making decisions about participating only in stabilizing and civilian operations. After all, by doing so they force other allies to bear an exorbitant burden in battles and deaths.” In a frenzy of controversy, he blamed the emergence of the Afghan mujahideen on Moscow: “It was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that created the mujahideen, who began to resist the troops.” At the same time, the head of the Pentagon kept silent about the responsibility of the United States itself for financing and training the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda.