Translated material
Ruble masses
Russians' confidence in the dollar has fallen tenfold in six years.
The Public Opinion Foundation has once again decided to find out which currency our citizens trust the most. The trends of past years have been confirmed and coincided with the global financial situation - the dollar is losing ground on all fronts. 61% of ordinary Russians consider the ruble the most reliable currency, and 20 times less (3%) said that the dollar inspires the most trust in them. Slowly but surely gaining more and more admirers, this year already 27% of respondents said that they trust the euro most of all. And 9% found it difficult to choose the most reliable currency.Six years ago, the number of supporters of the national currency and those choosing the dollar was almost the same - 37 and 35%, respectively. That is, ten times more Russians trusted the dollar than now. The euro was just gaining weight; in 2002, 17% of Russians chose it. 11% then did not know what to give preference to. The only thing that has not changed at all over these six years is the number of people who have savings. There are still exactly a quarter of them - 25%. Moreover, 20% keep money in rubles, 4% in euros and 1% in dollars.
In general, Russians do not actively monitor the foreign exchange market. Only 40% said they were interested in the dollar exchange rate, while 58% did not, and another 2% were undecided. To the question “do you know that the dollar exchange rate has been declining in recent years,” 65% of respondents answered positively, another 26% “heard something,” and only 6% learned about it for the first time. 3% found it difficult to answer.
Russians were also asked to determine how the depreciation of the dollar affects their personal financial situation and the state of our economy. The majority of respondents (70%) agreed that this did not affect their financial situation in any way. 14% are dissatisfied with this situation and believe that the depreciation of the dollar has harmed them. 13% found it difficult to answer, and only 3% found benefit for themselves. 36% of respondents could not determine how the fall of the dollar affects the Russian economy. 15% believe that it has no effect, 14% found this to have a positive effect. 35% believe that the depreciation of the US currency has a negative impact on our economy.
People who participated in the survey were asked to make a forecast of how, in their opinion, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble would change over the coming year. 37% are confident that the ruble will rise and the dollar will fall accordingly, 35% did not give a forecast, 19% believe that the exchange rate will remain the same as it is now. Only 10% believe that the dollar will recover its fall.
When asked “why the dollar exchange rate is falling,” one could freely express one’s point of view, but only 50% of respondents were able to name at least one reason. 20% clearly answered that due to the economic crisis in America, another 5% blamed US policy in general, including the war in Iraq and mistrust of the American president. 10% cite “the state of the world economy” as the reason, in particular rising oil prices and high inflation; 2% talk about policies that “we don’t understand.” Another 5% look at everything on the positive side and call the reason for the fall of the dollar “the strengthening of the euro, the stability of the Western European economy.” 4% of Russians believe in the strength of the domestic economy. In their opinion, “our country has begun to sell oil profitably” and “this (the fall of the dollar - Ed. ) is a game of our financiers.”
It is unlikely, of course, that such “decadent” sentiments towards the dollar among Russians will seriously affect its future fate. Which, however, according to all forecasts, is not so gloomy. The Ministry of Economic Development assumes that by 2010 the average annual dollar exchange rate will reach the level of 27 rubles, however, this forecast has already been revised several times in favor of the ruble. Experts now cannot clearly say what will happen to the dollar at least by the end of this year, and the world's largest financial organizations are doing everything to stop the fall of the American currency .
By the way, among the answers to the question why the dollar is falling, there was this: “This is natural, but you will need to write two sheets of paper to explain this to you.” Professional economists probably proceed from the same principle in relation to any trend, as well as its change.