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ECB's fight against inflation helped euro set new record

The dollar/euro exchange rate continues to decline and cross psychological marks. Yesterday, quotes of the European currency rose to $1.6. The reason for the rise in price of the euro was a statement by a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank (ECB) about a possible rate increase if the rate of growth in consumer prices does not slow down. Nevertheless, market participants believe that the level of 1.6-1.63 dollars per euro is too high a price for the European currency. Analysts interviewed by the Vremya Novostey newspaper believe that the dollar/euro exchange rate may reach its bottom in the near future. Therefore, already in the second half of the year we should expect the euro to become cheaper compared to the main world currencies, including the Russian ruble.

“We face a big challenge to get inflation below 2% next year,” said Christian Noyer, a member of the ECB board and head of the Bank of France. - We will do everything possible to achieve this. If necessary, we will change the rate." In addition, Yves Mersch, also a member of the ECB’s governing council, said that the question of the advisability of raising the key interest rate “has grounds.” Both statements confirm the ECB's firm commitment to fight inflation and do not rule out tightening the bank's monetary policy. In this case, according to Western experts, we can expect further strengthening of the single European currency against the dollar.

Immediately after these statements, which market participants took as a signal to raise rates, the value of the single European currency increased by 0.4%, to $1.5978 per euro. And a little later it reached 1.6 dollars per euro. In Russia, the official dollar to ruble exchange rate decreased by 0.2% - from 23.47 to 34.42 rubles. per dollar, the euro exchange rate increased by 0.1% - from 37.11 to 37.15 rubles. per euro.

Despite yesterday's growth in euro quotations against the dollar, experts believe that the appreciation of the European currency will not last long. According to Renaissance Capital analyst Alexey Moiseev, the dollar exchange rate may begin to rise at the end of the year. The decline in the American economy will negatively affect the countries of the European Union, so already in the third quarter the euro/dollar exchange rate may return to the current level of 1.6 euros per dollar, and at the end of the year fall to 1.55 euros per dollar, he believes. In Russia, quotations of the American currency, according to the analyst’s forecast, may rise to the level of 23.7 rubles. for a dollar.

Natalia ROMANOVA