Translated material
By the lake
Dmitry Medvedev participates in the G8 summit for the first time
Dmitry Medvedev's plane landed in Japan last night. Several months ago, when the current president of Russia was still preparing to take this post, Western journalists were actively interested in the question of who would represent Russia at the G8 summit of heads of state . Not because they doubted Mr. Medvedev’s victory in the elections, but because they expected to see Vladimir Putin in Japan, albeit in prime ministerial status. When such questions were asked to Putin himself, he was only perplexed. And although there was a precedent in Russian history (in 1999, Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin participated in the G8 meeting in Cologne), doubts about Dmitry Medvedev’s political capabilities to get to Hokkaido looked ridiculous before. And yesterday no one could doubt them.At the airport in the town of Chitose, where Mr. Medvedev arrived and from where he was supposed to take a helicopter to the summit site, the fashionable Windsor Hotel on the shores of Lake Toya, fog thickened in the evening. Due to this, according to unofficial information, the helicopter trip had to be cancelled, and the hotel had to be reached by car. The local road, however, is not much safer than the fog: it has only two lanes, winds between hills and forests, and road signs indicate the presence of moose, bears and other living creatures, which, apparently, do not hesitate to create dangerous situations on the roadway. However, in recent days, when the surrounding area was occupied by Japanese police and self-defense forces, no incidents with forest dwellers were recorded.
Otherwise, after yesterday's fog, Dmitry Medvedev's program at the summit is clear. In addition to all the working meetings in the G8 format, he will hold about ten bilateral negotiations. Moreover, his first interlocutor today will be US President George W. Bush , who celebrated his 62nd birthday the day before. Today, negotiations will be held with three more G8 leaders - Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown. The protocol allotted half an hour for each meeting, although it is clear that they all have their own drama and their own intrigue. For example, Mr. Medvedev will meet the British Prime Minister for the first time, and it is difficult to predict how their acquaintance will go against the backdrop of poor interstate relations. (“I don’t think they will need much time to get acquainted. The meeting will discuss very specific issues in which both leaders are interested,” Arkady Dvorkovich, an aide to the Russian president, told reporters the other day. “I think the meeting will be interesting and will be a step forward in bilateral relations.")
Tomorrow is the main day of work at the summit. In fact, this will be the G8 meeting, since today and Wednesday the heads of state are meeting in an expanded format: today, together with the heads of a number of African states, and the day after tomorrow with the participation of the leaders of the largest developing economies, including China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, etc. Nevertheless, Dmitry Medvedev also has bilateral negotiations planned for tomorrow evening - with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Silvio Berlusconi. And if it is clear in advance that the conversation with the Italian prime minister promises to be pleasant in all respects, then it is also clear in advance that the meeting with the host of the summit will not be easy: the agitation in Japan for the return of the “northern territories” is too aggressive for a conversation about them to be possible avoid.
Finally, on Wednesday, the Russian president will hold talks with Korean and Brazilian presidents Lee Myung-bak and Lula, Indian Prime Minister Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao, and will hold a final press conference before leaving Hokkaido.
Although Dmitry Medvedev is not the only “newcomer” at the summit (besides him, Gordon Brown and Yasuo Fukuda are participating in such an event for the first time), it is for him that Hokkaido is a real political premiere. Not least because, in comparison with his colleagues from Britain and Japan, the political prospects of the Russian president look very, very convincing, and only he seems today to be a candidate for longevity in the G8 club. Judging by Mr. Medvedev's recent performances , he is ready for this role.
In Hokkaido, as a year ago in Heiligendamm, Germany, the only and main intrigue is whether world leaders will be able to come to a common understanding of the threats associated with climate change and agree on joint actions. The global food crisis and the surge in inflation on a global scale have only at first glance relegated climate problems to the background.
On the contrary, Gordon Brown is confident that Western countries need to join forces and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, as well as increase food production in developing countries. He stated this in an interview with the Guardian newspaper . In this regard, the publication notes that Brown's opinion serves as a response to the concerns of experts who believe that the crisis in the global credit system could force industrialized countries to abandon the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere and promises to increase the amount of aid to poor countries. As you know, the opinion that climate protection should not be carried away, since it slows down economic growth, is very popular. “The world is faced with three problems: rising fuel prices, rising food prices and a credit crisis. "I would like to convey to the G8 that the current economic crisis means that instead of relaxing about climate change and problems in developing countries, we must accelerate solutions to these issues," Reuters quoted Brown as saying. “This is not just the key to solving the problems of the environment and poverty, it is the key to the future of our economy as a whole.”
Brown believes that the results of the summit will be judged by whether it was possible to cope with protectionism, support cleaner energy and develop measures to combat rising fuel and food prices. With regard to energy, the British Prime Minister expresses hope that next year the G8 will be able to achieve success in working on an international agreement designed to replace the Kyoto Protocol (it, as is known, should be agreed upon at the session of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2009). However, the President of the Energy Policy Institute , Vladimir Milov, points out that progress in the fight against climate change can only be achieved with the active participation of the main “producers” of greenhouse emissions - the USA and China, and they are categorically not ready to change their energy policy.
In addition, apparently, Brown is bringing to Hokkaido a specific idea to change the global financial architecture. Dmitry Medvedev also spoke about the need to adjust global financial institutions in his interview. He emphasized that recent events in the global economy have prompted the need to “adjust” this system in a new way: it “should be more fair”, “take into account the set of risks that are relevant today” and “take into account the negative experience associated with economic overheating." Proposals on how to do this, Mr. Medvedev said, “are being prepared by a number of states, including Great Britain.” “We are also preparing similar proposals,” the Russian president added.
According to Gordon Brown, the G8 needs to agree to “turn the World Bank into an energy bank” along with its functions as a development bank. Mr. Brown, who served as Her Majesty's Chancellor of the Exchequer for several years, worked closely with international financial organizations; unlike other current G8 leaders, he has long demanded their reform. As for the International Monetary Fund, Mr. Brown has long (and not unsuccessfully) tried to reduce the IMF's role to a tool in the hands of its main shareholders. The World Bank appears to have a chance of survival in Mr. Brown's frame of reference. Obviously, at the summit the British Prime Minister will present his idea in more detail, especially since the head of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, is also present in Hokkaido.
By the way, the World Bank has already taken a step that was initiated by three G8 countries and is not yet entirely liked by other members of the club, including Russia. A week ago, the World Bank established a global Climate Investment Fund with resources of up to $5 billion. As is known, the idea of such a fund for investment in the creation of new energy technologies was proposed within the G8 by Japan. Tokyo offered to contribute 10 billion dollars to the fund and immediately announced its readiness, together with the United States and Britain, to provide 5 billion. It was assumed that another 5 billion would be financed by the remaining members of the club, including Russia. However, Moscow has publicly expressed doubts about the need for this initiative, declaring through Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin that such institutions already exist. As a result, the initiators of the fund decided not to wait for everyone else and involved the World Bank in the project. Apparently, the discussion on financing the initiatives put forward by the G8 will occupy a prominent place at the summit. And it is very difficult to predict its outcome.