Translated material
The Russians will ride
PricewaterhouseCoopers experts predict further growth in car sales in the country
PricewaterhouseCoopers yesterday released a review of the state of the automotive market in Russia in 2007 and its prospects in the coming years. Company experts believe that 2007, a record year for car sales, will not be the last and the main peaks in car sales in our country are still ahead. According to the optimistic scenario, the number of car owners will double, and according to the pessimistic scenario, it will increase by one and a half times.As PwC partner Stanley Ruth said yesterday at a briefing, in 2007 the growth of the automobile market compared to 2006 was both quantitative (35%, up to 2.79 million vehicles) and monetary (67%, up to 53.4 billion). dollars) in terms was the largest in the modern history of Russia. Sales of Russian-made foreign cars in the Russian Federation increased by 57%, to 440 thousand units, imports of new cars increased by 67%, to 1.21 million units, imports of used cars increased by 46%, to 380 thousand units. At the same time, sales of Russian cars decreased by 5%, to 765 thousand units. In monetary terms, sales growth was only 12% ($6.5 billion). Speaking about the main trends in the development of the Russian automobile market, Mr. Ruth noted an almost twofold increase in issued auto loans - up to $16 billion, as well as an increase in the disposable income of the population. “If in 2006 the share of expenses on cars was 4.4% of disposable income, then in 2007 it increased to 5.2%, despite a noticeable increase in the average price of a car,” he noted.
The PwC expert also believes that last year was quite successful for the largest Russian automaker, AvtoVAZ. In 2007, he sold 663.5 thousand cars in Russia (compared to 2006, the increase was 6.2%). At the same time, as Mr. Ruth notes, AvtoVAZ is experiencing increasing pressure from Chinese cars, sales of which grew by 258% in 2007 (from 19.8 thousand units in 2006 to 51.2 thousand. in 2007).
According to him, cars from other global manufacturers continue to “capture” the Russian market. Thus, in the period from 2002 to 2007, new foreign cars increased their share in the Russian market in monetary terms from 26 to 76%. Sales of foreign cars in Russia increased from $2.8 billion in 2002 to $40.8 billion in 2007, i.e. more than 14 times.
The PwC expert talks about two possible options for the development of the Russian car market. According to an optimistic forecast, sales will peak in 2014, when 5.5 million cars will be sold. One of the main reasons for this will be the increase in recycling of old cars from the current 3% per year to 6%. In 2015-2017, there will be a decline in the market, as a result of which sales will drop to 4 million units per year, but until 2020 there will be no more sharp ups and downs, and the situation will relatively stabilize. By that time, 400 people out of every thousand will have their own car (now about 200).
A conservative forecast is that the peak is expected in 2010, when approximately 3.4 million vehicles will be sold (and then 2.6-3 million will be sold annually within ten years), and recycling will be at the level of 5% per year. In this case, 300 people out of every thousand will be car owners.
According to Mr. Root, sales growth could be hampered by lower-than-planned GDP growth in Russia, the still low level of recycling of old cars, as well as the poor condition of Russian roads.
Car sales volume in Russia
| 2007 | 2006 | 2007 | 2006 | |
| Russian cars | 765 | 800 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Foreign cars made in Russia | 440 | 280 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| Import of new cars | 1205 | 720 | 34.1 | 18.2 |
| Import of used cars | 380 | 260 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| Total | 2790 | 2060 | 53.4 | 32.0 |
Sources: Goskomstat, State Customs Committee, ASM-holding, AEB, PwC estimates
Top sellers on the Russian market, thousand units.
| Chevrolet (incl. JV "GM-AvtoVAZ") | 190.6 | 111.5 |
| Ford | 175.8 | 116.0 |
| Hyundai | 147.8 | 100.7 |
| Toyota | 145.5 | 95.7 |
| Nissan | 116.5 | 75.5 |
| Renault | 101.2 | 72.5 |
| Mitsubishi | 100.6 | 68.8 |
| Daewoo | 91.3 | 66.7 |
| Kia | 78.6 | 60.0 |
| Volkswagen, Skoda, Audi | 74.9 | 44.1 |
| Opel | 66.3 | 20.0 |
| Chinese | 51.2 | 19.8 |
| Other | 305.4 | 168.4 |
| Total | 1645.6 | 1019.6 |
Source: AEB, PwC