Translated material
Ground vibrations below the vertical
More and more Russians want to elect their own governors
The discussion about a return to direct gubernatorial elections in Russia is gaining momentum . Before the speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov had time to speak out in favor of the election of regional heads, supporting the presidents of Tatarstan and Bashkiria Mintimer Shaimiev and Murtaza Rakhimov, the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) published data from a sociological survey on this topic.It turned out that among the 1,600 respondents, almost a third are opponents of the new system, in which regional heads are approved by local parliaments on the proposal of the president. 21% of respondents considered this scheme “rather unjustified,” and another 11% called it “completely unjustified.” Two years ago, during a similar survey, 27% expressed dissatisfaction with the new system. Thus, the number of skeptics has increased by 5% since 2006.
At the same time, the number of supporters of the appointment of governors “from above” during this time decreased, although only slightly - from 45 to 42%. It is curious that residents of the Far Eastern and Siberian federal districts dislike the new system most of all - there, 48 and 42% are dissatisfied with the new system, respectively, and only 32 and 36% approve of it. The 2008 survey was conducted on July 5-6 in 153 settlements in 46 regions, the statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.
“The changes are within the statistical error,” Oksana Goncharenko, a leading expert at the Center for Current Political Affairs, commented on these figures to a Vremya Novostei correspondent. “However, the survey shows that the topic is relevant for regional elites and the discussion will continue.”
Ms. Goncharenko recalled that this topic was actually revived by the President of Tatarstan, Mintimer Shaimiev, who spoke at the end of June in favor of returning to direct elections of heads of federal subjects. The President of Bashkortostan, Murtaza Rakhimov, immediately supported his colleague. Ms. Goncharenko admits that this was a kind of touchstone: “They tried to test the waters, because the “heavyweights” are most concerned about their political future. In Tatarstan and Bashkiria, the personnel issue will be very acute in the near future. Therefore, regional leaders tried to mark their presence as strong political figures and thereby strengthen their positions in future bargaining with the center for a successor, since the debate will be serious.”
The expert believes that one of the reasons for returning, at least at the level of political discussion, to the topic of gubernatorial elections is the uncertainty in regional politics in general and in personnel policy in particular: “Governors do not know what to expect from the new president; decisions made by the center often become unexpected for the regional elite. In the case of national republics, these decisions involve control over large resources, so the cost of the issue is especially high.”
Independent political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin evaluates the opinion poll data differently: “5% (increasing number of opponents of abandoning gubernatorial elections. -- Ed. ) - this no longer fits into the framework of statistical error, especially in the mouth of VTsIOM, this is a reflection of a real trend.” “Direct elections were canceled after the terrorist attack in Beslan under the sign of the fight against terrorism,” the analyst recalled in a conversation with a Vremya Novostei correspondent. - However, recent years have shown that there is no more order. You can control Murat Zyazikov, but the question is whether he controls the situation in Ingushetia. And vice versa, Ramzan Kadyrov controls the situation in Chechnya, but does the federal center control Kadyrov himself? This is not a vertical model, where the center gives an order and expects its execution. In any case, we have to negotiate with regional leaders.”
According to Mr. Oreshkin, in this situation, a return to direct gubernatorial elections is inevitable, since this will to a certain extent bridge the gap between the people and the authorities. “But there is no need for illusions, the heads of regions can still, for the most part, secure re-election for themselves,” Dmitry Oreshkin cools down the hot liberal heads. The political scientist believes that today we are not talking about a transition to ideal democracy, but about a step “from feudalism to a bourgeois republic.”
The federal center will “slowly, gradually, desperately bargaining, cede part of its powers” to the regions - not out of great love for democracy, but in order to avoid other paths, “more exotic,” not to say forceful, the expert believes. However, Mr. Oreshkin found it difficult to name a possible time frame for returning to the gubernatorial elections. In turn, Oksana Goncharenko believes that “in the foreseeable future this will not happen, since such a return would discredit the 2004 reform.”