Translated material
Commentary from a military expert
- Tbilisi is now trying in every possible way to portray Russia as the aggressor. Saakashvili wants to show himself as a victim of an attack and achieve the country's admission to NATO. The battles showed a good degree of armament and training of the Georgian army. At the same time, the constant unpreparedness of Russian troops for sudden participation in the war is also obvious. The Georgians even managed to shoot down two Russian planes, which does not indicate the developed Georgian air defense system, but rather the insufficient preparedness of our pilots. In a war with such an enemy, who has practically no air defense, one must manage to lose two aircraft, including the Tu-22 long-range supersonic bomber.
Of course, Tbilisi still has some of its air defense equipment from Soviet times. It is known that the United States did not supply air defense systems to Georgia. It is possible that Ukraine did this, but its capabilities in this area are limited. In any case, the loss of Russian aircraft is an extremely unpleasant moment for the Russian armed forces.
True, Georgians also have something to work on. So they announced general mobilization - but this is more of a political gesture, because in a modern war “cannon fodder” decides little. The Georgians will not attack in “living waves” - this is not in their character, and the terrain does not allow it. Apparently, Georgia suffered losses in South Ossetia, which were very noticeable for the Georgian army.
An extremely negative factor for Tbilisi is the involvement of Abkhazia in the hostilities. The Abkhazians cannot get land - there are no forces and weapons. From the sea, Russian ships are blocking the Georgian border. Tbilisi has one missile boat in its arsenal, but I don’t think the Georgians will dare to use it.
The full strength of the Georgian ground forces is about 20 thousand people, which is approximately the size of a Russian division. In total, there are more than 30 thousand people in the Georgian army. Georgia has already lost the war. Most likely, the military phase of the conflict is over, and the situation is being played out politically. The result for Russia is the transformation of Georgia from a neighboring state into a direct enemy. Now Tbilisi has only one choice - to appeal to the United States.