Translated material
European economy disappoints
The dollar has risen in price in Russia by another 20 kopecks
Sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar continue in the foreign exchange market. Last Friday, the official dollar exchange rate increased from 24.29 to 24.5 rubles. The euro fell in price in Russia by 0.1%, from 36.19 to 36.14 rubles. The value of the bi-currency basket against the ruble decreased by 0.5%, from 29.68 to 29.82 rubles. Market participants explain the strengthening of the dollar by the rise in price of the American currency on world markets. In their opinion, in the short term we can expect further growth in the dollar/ruble exchange rate. At the same time, of course, we cannot expect a collapse of the national currency, as happened exactly ten years ago during the 1998 default.The value of the dollar continues to rise against world currencies. On Friday, the dollar to euro exchange rate rose to 1.4717 dollars per euro, the day before the quotes were 1.48-1.476 dollars per euro. The exchange rate of the pound sterling against the US currency was $1.86 per pound, this is the highest value in the last two years. At the same time, investment bank Goldman Sachs changed its annual forecast from $1.86 to $1.79 per pound.
The demand for dollars is driven by two factors. First, investors are disappointed by the state of the economy in the eurozone. As you know, on Thursday it became known that GDP in Europe fell by 0.2% in the second quarter, for the first time since 1999. At the same time, it became known that inflation in the United States was growing at a faster pace than expected: the consumer price index in July rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while analysts had predicted an increase of 0.4%. Accelerating inflation may cause the Fed to increase rates, and therefore lead to an even greater appreciation of the dollar in the world.
Secondly, investors continue to transfer their funds from oil assets to dollars. On Friday, futures contracts for the supply of Brent crude oil in September were concluded at a price of $113.77 per barrel, which is $1.24 lower than the same figure on Thursday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for oil production growth in 2008 from 1.2 to 1.17%. The reason for the lower forecast is the slowdown in global economic development.
The strengthening of the dollar in the world also provoked a fall in the price of gold. On Friday, its price fell below $800 per troy ounce, this is the lowest value in three years. Since the beginning of August, the price of gold on the market has already decreased by 12%.
Against the backdrop of the rise in the value of the American currency in the world, dollar quotations also increased on Russian stock exchanges. During Friday, the dollar traded at 24.4--24.54 rubles. Demand for currency remains high even though banks are facing large tax payments in the near future. On Friday, credit institutions were already making deductions under the Unified Social Tax. Rates on the interbank lending market on Friday amounted to 5.6-5.4% per annum. A day earlier - 6.25--6.5% per annum. As traders note, in general the liquidity situation remains relatively stable.
According to market participants, in the short term we can expect further strengthening of the dollar against the ruble. At the same time, analysts note that macroeconomic data in Russia are contributing to the rise in price of the national currency.