Silence is gold. Alexander Lukashenko sat on two chairs. And received dividends on that
Over the past ten days, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko made movements towards the West. And towards Russia. And he achieved praise on both sides. Washington and the EU welcomed the liberation of the Belarusian political prisoners. Russia promised a new loan and again think about the price of gas.
Moscow - Belarus
At a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev 1 about the war in the Caucasus, Alexander Lukashenko put it Vitivato “I want to thank for the wisdom that you have shown recently, especially during the aggression of a neighboring state. I do not call it a war anywhere. It was a calm reaction that led to the fact that peace has been established in the region-and, in my opinion, now very long. This was done very carefully for several days. /.../. Therefore, I do not consider it necessary here to interfere in the conflict and talk about which Russians are so. Everything was done perfectly, very calm, wise and beautiful. ”
The results of the meeting turned out to be more clear: Belarus agreed to create a unified air defense system in response to Poland placement in Poland 2 . The decision on this was made back in 2001, but Minsk delayed with approval. And of course we talked about the price of gas, which next year should increase from $ 127 to $ 200 per 1 thousand cubic meters. Must. But the decision was also postponed until September-October 3 . Then, in the fall, simultaneously with the unified air defense system, a single currency (which Lukashenko refuses so far) and the prices of gas will be discussed about the conditions for the provision of Russian loan of Belarus in the amount of $ 2 billion.
Belarus - the West
A statement in Sochi at a meeting with Medvedev a week after the official announcement of the end of the “Duration of the Peace” operation was the first speech of Alexander Lukashenko on the conflict of Russia and Georgia. Lukashenko was silent even after the reproach of the Russian ambassador to Minsk, Alexander Surikov, who said on August 12: “More clearly should be expressed on such issues, especially the allies.” But on the same day, the Belarusian president instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus to take measures to improve relations with the European Union and the USA.
In a few days, the president of Belarus amnested all political prisoners. On August 16, the former leader of the Gramada party, a former presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin, was released from prison. This happened unexpectedly for the Belarusian opposition and for Kozulin itself. He was arrested for organizing protests against falsification of the presidential election on Independence Day - March 25, 2006. On July 13, 2006, the court sentenced Alexander Kozulin to five and a half years in prison. In jail, he spent two and a half years 4 .
On August 20, representatives of the Belarusian opposition Andrei Kim and Sergey Parsyukevich, convicted in January 2008 for participating in the protest of entrepreneurs for one and a half and two and a half years in prison, were amnestied. The liberation took place very quickly, Alexander Kozulin told The New Times: “They gave me 10 minutes for fees. The guys heard the head of the colony shouted: “The minister demands, but they are still here. Running! " And they just threw it out of the colony. ”
The representative of the US State Department Robert Wood said: “The liberation of these citizens gives us hope for future positive steps, Supplements of real possibilities of significant improvement in relations between the United States and Belarus. ” The US Secretary of State David Merkel was sent to Minsk.
Signal in both directions
“If the United States and the European Union did not take a firm position, our liberation would hardly be possible. Without this, further dialogue between countries would have been impossible, ”said Alexander Kozulin. The leader of the United Civil Party of Belarus Anatoly Lebedko told The New Times that “the issue of freeing political prisoners could be resolved in February-March 2008. The decision was made at the end of last year, but the diplomatic scandal that grew into a real war between Minsk and Washington prevented the implementation of these plans ” 5 .
Alexander Kozulin believes that the time for the amnesty was not chosen by chance: “Now our dilemma is: has a real threat to pay more than $ 200 for gas, which completely changes the economic situation - horns and legs will remain from the economic Belarusian miracle. In this situation, you need to turn to other alternative sources. ” Kozulin draws attention that the release of political prisoners occurred on the eve of negotiations between the prime ministers of Belarus and Russia Sidorsky and Putin and the presidents of the two countries of Lukashenko and Medvedev: “On the one hand, this is a message of Russia, on the other, a signal of the United States.”
However, Kozulin does not believe that the movement of Belarus towards the West will continue, and doubts the possibility of rehabilitation at home. He intends to receive compensation for two and a half years in prison: “In the Council of Human Rights at the UN, my case has been accepted and launched by technical procedures.” In addition, Alexander Kozulin is going to continue political activity in Belarus: “I have not been in vain such a long way. Of course, I will take part in the 2011 presidential election, but in what capacity - I will still determine. ” In the meantime, according to Kozulin, a total surveillance has been established behind him: “We have good special services: the State Security Committee, the Presidential Security Service.”
After the presidential election in Belarus in November 2006, the European Union sent Lukashenko 12 conditions for the resumption of dialogue. Among them are the following: to free political prisoners, stop the persecution of the opposition, remove restrictions for non -state media and hold democratic parliamentary elections on September 28, 2008. Lukashenko promised to hold honest elections and invited European observers to them. The CEC of Belarus reports that now, a month before the day of voting, 89 observers work in the country.
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1 Sochi, August 19, 2008.
2 The agreement is planned to be signed in the fall at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State.
3 under a contract signed on the night of January 1, 2007, Russia gradually increases the cost of gas for Belarus to a world level. In 2008-a 33%discount, in 2009-20%, in 2010-10%. Belarus insists on a more smooth increase.
On February 4 on February, Kozulin was released for three days for the funeral of his wife.
5 After the presidential elections in Belarus, which Europe and the USA recognized as non -commissive, sanctions were imposed on the Belneftekhim concern. In response, Belarus demanded that US Ambassador Karen Stuart leave the country, and the staff of the embassy was reduced from 38 to 5 people.
