"Serious problems will become more acute"

"We take full responsibility for their viability"

Vremya Novostei correspondent Natalya ROZHKOVA asked representatives of the Russian expert community to comment on the possible consequences of Russia recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia .

"We take full responsibility for their viability"

Alexey ARBATOV, Director of the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations:

-- The reaction to this recognition from NATO and the European Union will be harsh. However, in this situation, I am more concerned about the reaction of our allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the CIS, Eurasia, SCO, BRIC, about whom we have heard so much good recently. Why do they remain silent? I very much hope that the step our President took was taken in consultation with these partners and allies so that they would support Russia in recognizing the independence of these two republics. There is no point in counting on NATO and the EU joining Russia. But I would like our CSTO allies to join - we have an obligation to help each other. China and India, as our partners, could join us, then this recognition would gain broader legitimacy even without approval by the UN Security Council.

Politically, of course, the West will condemn Russia, the Americans will retaliate in full, since they are now in the election campaign, and they received such a slap in the face, completely unusual and unexpected for themselves. Negotiations and military and political cooperation may be frozen for some time. A period of difficult moods and violent passions will pass before heads cool down and return to those serious problems that will not disappear anywhere, and will even become more acute.

In addition, we must understand that by recognizing these republics, we take full responsibility for their viability, especially if no one else recognizes them. We will have to keep additional troops there. We are fully capable of this economic burden. But we will certainly get two more pockets of serious instability in the North Caucasus, and what our opponents will try to do is to destabilize the situation in this region.

“This doesn’t bode well for anything positive.”

Georgy SATAROV, President of the INDEM Foundation:

“I don’t think this bodes well for anything positive.” From the point of view of the most common assessment of our actions, we are already approaching the concept of a rogue country. And our position will only be strengthened by the fact that, together with us, the independence of these two fragments of Georgia is recognized by Al-Qaeda and Cuba or someone like that. As for other countries, it is unlikely that we will achieve much success in trying to win them over to our side on this issue. We already had a similar situation in Transnistria, but there they found a normal solution, but here, apparently, there will be a protracted period of complete uncertainty. Because recognition from Russia alone has little effect on the situation, except for the frenzied enthusiasm and fireworks in Tskhinvali and Sukhumi. This decision has nothing to do with the category of international status.

It is unlikely that recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will lead to any aggravation of the conflict and sanctions, since a certain kind of economic interests are involved here. But, undoubtedly, there will be a sharp cooling in relations and an increase in mutually negative rhetoric.

“This is forced, but the only correct option”

Konstantin KOSACHEV, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs:

- This is a forced, but the only correct option for Russia to act in this situation. For almost the last two decades, we have been the main sponsor of the international security system. It was Russia that all these years has consistently defended the supremacy of international law, the priority of the UN Security Council and has not done anything that would violate this international law. We did not recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or any other territories, despite repeated appeals to us, we did not place our bases on foreign territories, and complied with all international agreements. And our partners simultaneously pursued a completely different line. They said that they loved international law just as much as we did, but through their concrete actions they tried to advance their own national interests in situations where this did not coincide with collective interests.

Sooner or later, this situation was bound to erupt into such a crisis. This is certainly not in the interests of international security and stability, and we regret this. But this is not our choice. It would be wrong to remain a sponsor of the international security system to the detriment of national interests, when all other countries realize their national interests, but Russia does not.

Regarding the reaction of NATO and the European Union: neither NATO nor the EU are world governments. These are associations of groups of states that are very important for Russia, but this is not the ultimate truth. For us, relationships with them are interesting as long as through them we find some solutions to our own problems. It would be great if, for example, we could, with the help of the EU, protect the Russian-speaking population in Latvia and Estonia or, with the help of NATO, bring some sense into Mr. Saakashvili’s military plans. However, since this does not happen, it turns out that the European Union and NATO are pursuing relations with Russia in their own interests, while Russia cannot realize its own interests. Then the question is: why do we need this relationship? I don't want to say that we don't need them. Needed. But not at any cost. If our partners continue to recklessly defend Tbilisi’s actions, then for us the question of common values ​​with these institutions turns out to be meaningless. We must try to maintain our relationship, but not at any cost, as has been the case so far. Because our attempts were not appreciated by our partners. On the contrary, they abused Russia's endless flexibility and constructiveness.