In January, when there was no negative news, the net outflow was twice as large, compares Natalia Orlova from Alfa Bank , and August can hardly be called calm.

Still in the plus. 40

billion dollars – the Central Bank’s forecast for net capital inflow in 2008

12.3

The net capital inflow for the first half of 2008 was $1 billion. In the first quarter, the net outflow was $23.4 billion.

25

billion dollars – this is the net inflow for eight months based on the estimates of the Central Bank’s managers on capital movements in July–August.

The volume of the August outflow was obtained based on “the most preliminary estimates,” Ignatyev specified. The outflow was even less than in August 2007 – $6.6 billion.

The Central Bank Chairman's estimate is unexpectedly small, Yegor Fedorov from the Bank of Moscow is surprised: "It does not at all reflect the general mood on the market." What is happening on the market is fluctuations associated with the outflow of speculative capital, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin explained, an excessive inflow is not needed, that is why inflation.

In August, the RTS index lost 16.3%. The ruble weakened against the dollar by 9% from its July maximum. OFZ yields reached 7.8%, the level of August 2005, says Fedorov. Given what was happening on the market, a net outflow of $15 billion could have been expected, says Yulia Tseplyaeva of Merrill Lynch. According to estimates by Yaroslav Lissovolik of Deutsche Bank, the outflow could have been $10 billion.

The war with Georgia triggered a net outflow of $7 billion for August 8–11, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said. He later reported that the outflow had stopped. Even if that were true, Tseplyaeva still doesn’t believe in the $5 billion figure: the outflow from the market could have been offset, for example, by a large influx of direct investment, but there were no major deals.

The capital account balance can be calculated knowing the current account balance and the change in reserves: the sum of the current and capital account balances should be equal to the change in gold and foreign exchange reserves (GFR). GFR decreased by $14.8 billion from August 1 to August 29. The current account balance, according to Orlova's estimates, is $10 billion; according to Tseplyaeva's estimates, it is $8 billion. So the net outflow could have been $22–25 billion.

The reduction in the gold and foreign exchange reserves could have been caused not by the Central Bank's operations, but by the revaluation of the euro and dollar exchange rates, says Oleg Solntsev from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF): in a month, the euro has fallen by 5.6% against the dollar. In euros, 40% of the gold and foreign exchange reserves are in euros, said Alexey Ulyukayev, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank. It turns out that $13.3 billion was lost on the gold and foreign exchange reserve exchange rate in a month. In this case, the net outflow could have been $9.5–11.5 billion, Tseplyaeva calculated: "Still not five."

Perhaps the balance of the trading account has dropped significantly, which could have led to the fact that the capital outflow estimate was small, Lissovolik thinks. A barrel of Urals fell in price by 8% in August.

There was no large outflow due to the repayment of foreign debt, Fedorov believes: in the third quarter, enterprises and banks must pay $35 billion, which is less than in any other quarter of 2008.

The net inflow for January-July is $30 billion, according to the estimate of the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Gennady Melikyan, with $15 billion left to reach $40 billion by the end of the year. Ulyukaev predicted a net inflow in both the third and fourth quarters.

An incredible figure – $5 billion