Translated material
"Loss of the last illusions"
Dmitry Medvedev told foreign political scientists about Russia's new course
The world must become “polycentric” - this is the new slogan of the Russian authorities. At the same time, Russia must become one of such centers. The Kremlin and the Russian White House are ready to spare no time and effort to explain their position to the West. Last week, first Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and then President Dmitry Medvedev found time in their busy schedulesto meet with the Valdai Discussion Club , a platform that brings together Russian and Western political scientists. Participants in the meeting with the president assessed it positively, but admitted that this would not be enough to improve relations.The meeting itself was not arranged quite normally. Dmitry Medvedev chose to hold it not in the Kremlin, but, apparently, to make it less formal, in the exhibition hall of the GUM store, where he democratically walked from his office. “I came to GUM not because I decided to do some shopping before the weekend, but to talk seriously about key international issues,” this is how the president began his conversation with experts. “I came here on foot - the Kremlin is opposite, there are many interesting places there, but many of you have been there, and here, in GUM, I think we will be more comfortable discussing all the issues,” Mr. Medvedev noted, but still as a hospitable host, he then invited the political scientists to take a walk around the Kremlin when they had the desire and the weather in Moscow was not so rainy.
The setting of the meeting was reminiscent of a banquet in honor of the Nobel Prize, except that the participants did not gather in tuxedos. But the menu was the most exquisite, it is a pity that political scientists did not appreciate it, giving preference to spiritual food. The discussion, at least that part of it that took place in the open, was devoted to the most pressing issues of our time: why does Russia need South Ossetia and Abkhazia, how long will the stock market continue to fall, and will Europe have enough Russian gas if Asian countries are also laying claim to it? ?
The first question was related to events in the Caucasus, but the answer was more about Russia’s role in the world. “ We need a different security architecture . The one that exists does not suit us. And it’s not because we don’t see Russia’s place in this architecture; it’s not a matter of ambition. It’s just that this system is experiencing a major breakdown, as a result of which political clashes and problems arise, borders change, and all this, in the worst case, is accompanied by blood,” the president said. Local conflict has global significance. “The lessons of the Caucasus crisis will be analyzed for a long time, but for me personally, as well as for a significant part of Russian society, it is the loss of the last illusions about the reliability of the current security system in the world. We are obliged to build a different security system, otherwise we are not insured that at some point the next Saakashvili will again be blown away and he will not do what was done in August,” Dmitry Medvedev believes.
Everything that the world came up with after the Second World War showed its inconsistency. “In the 20th century, the UN, a system for maintaining security, was created,” the president recalled. “The 21st century began with a denial of what had been done. The Caucasus crisis, in particular, showed the ineffectiveness of this. Even with the closest relationships, it is impossible to protect an ally if he has committed a war crime. Our American friends understand this too.”
Neither the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, nor the dominance of one state can help in a difficult situation. Moscow has its own approach to solving the problem. “A polycentric world is the only way to preserve peace for years to come,” Mr. Medvedev concluded. In this world, Russia has its own mission as a large state and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a member of the Group of Eight, and as a rapidly developing economy.
At the same time, Moscow intends to protect not only universal human values, but also its own interests. “Russia has its own place, its own mission, if you like. There are zones in which its interests lie, and denying this is pointless and harmful,” Mr. Medvedev said, answering a question about what Russia’s role is in the modern world after the conflict in South Ossetia. At the same time, “good-hearted relations with neighbors are priority number one, but this does not mean that Russia should build relations only with the CIS countries.”
According to him, in the 1990s, “we were weak and frail” and could not afford to comprehensively develop relations with foreign partners. But now the situation has changed, the president said. “Any state that wants to be friends with Russia will receive a friendly attitude,” he emphasized. And whoever doesn’t want to, will regret it. “We will develop contacts with states with which we traditionally have close and warm relations. If someone doesn't like it, what should they do? We don’t like a lot of things either,” the president said, answering a clarifying question about where Russia’s “zones of interest” are located.
Much attention at the meeting was paid to the topic of Russian gas. “It’s funny to hear some statements that Russia does not have enough gas to serve Europe, and not just to send it to Asia. This is not so,” the president said. The Ministry of Energy forecasts gas exports in 2008 at 204 billion cubic meters. “If we see that there is a big market, we will introduce new fields, you can be sure of that,” the president said, but stressed that Russia will not give up developing relations with the East for the sake of relations with the West. “Without diversifying the country's development to the east, the Russian economy has no future; the eastern regions will not develop as we would like,” he noted. “There is no contrast between the Asian vector and the European one.” And again he recalled the new key word of Russian foreign policy: “This is where polycentrism should manifest itself: the world and, in particular, the economy will be more stable if there are different economic platforms, when exchanges not only in London or Berlin, but also in Asia are actively working.” .
In Russia, stock exchanges should also be active, and the ruble should become one of the reserve currencies. “Until now, the shares of Russian so-called blue chips, even when they were at their highest point, were undervalued,” Mr. Medvedev is convinced. At the same time, he again tried to convince the audience that the fall of the Russian market was largely due to the global financial crisis , and not to the war between Russia and Georgia. “If we talk about the contribution to the crisis of the last period with Russian stock indices, then 75% of the fall is associated with the consequences of the international financial crisis, and 25% are our internal problems, including the consequences of the war in the Caucasus,” the president said .
Mr. Medvedev is not afraid of a decrease in the country's investment attractiveness because of the Caucasus. “Russia, due to its geographical features, its role in the global development of labor, and intellectual potential, will always be an investment-intensive country,” the president is confident.
Although the meeting participants highly appreciated the Russian president’s frankness, they considered that this was clearly not enough to seriously influence the opinion of the West.
“In the West, Russia’s position is either falsified, I’ll tell you honestly, or they make it up for it, or they try to see in Russia what each specific observer needs, and he adjusts Russia to his standards of vision and to his answers, which he already has. Therefore, such primary sources as the president and prime minister himself certainly brought greater clarity,” said Nikolai Zlobin, director of Russian and Asian programs at the US Institute of World Security.
“Unfortunately, the gap between Russia and the West is still widening. The vision of problems in Moscow, Washington and Brussels is different - both in rhetoric and in the tools that are drawn from diplomatic “warehouses”. This toolkit is dangerous and reminiscent of the confrontation of the Cold War, says Ariel Cohen, an expert in the field of foreign policy, security and international relations.