Translated material
To parliament without compromising evidence
Lithuania is doomed to a difficult coalition
The election campaign for elections to the Seimas (parliament) of Lithuania is only gaining momentum, but some conclusions about the nature of the configuration of power can be made now, without waiting for the results of the vote on October 12. Apparently, no party will be able to win such a confident victory as to claim sole leadership, and the future government will again become a coalition.As in the previous elections of 2004, the rivalry is unfolding not so much on the plane of ideology (right-left), but between the “old guys” and the “newcomers”. The battle is between traditional “elite” parties created in the early 1990s (conservatives and social democrats) and new ones that emerged in the early 2000s. The latter include the Labor Party of Viktor Uspaskich , the Order and Justice party of ex-president Rolandas Paksas, as well as the People’s Progress Party, created in the spring of this year, led by the popular showman Arunas Valinskas.
So far, only five parties are able to overcome the five percent threshold in parliamentary elections. According to a poll recently published in the Lietuvos Rytas newspaper, 12.4% of voters would vote for the Fatherland Union party of conservatives and Christian Democrats. Then come the Paksas Party (11.4%) and the Labor Party (8.7%). In fourth place was the Social Democratic Party led by Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas (7.2%). 7% of voters are ready to vote for the People's Revival Party.
Valinskas's party is the most prominent participant in the current campaign. The TV producer, one of the creators of the popular satirical TV show “Bicycle Show,” initially got involved in it shockingly, promising to make the “mothball” life of the Diet more lively and fun. But unlike his colleague Viktoras Šerenas, who played this role individually in the last presidential elections, Valinskas brings with him to parliament a whole cohort of people from the world of culture, art and sports. Political scientists note in this regard that businessmen who entered politics in 2000 along with Viktor Uspaskich are leaving it, and their place is being taken by a “new wave” of bohemians.
After the elections, President Valdas Adamkus will again have a headache, since the government formed following the election results may not correspond to his political views. He himself openly sympathizes with the “elite,” especially conservatives. In his interviews, he repeatedly called on them to unite with the Social Democrats and on this basis create a “rainbow” coalition - as the unification of left and right forces was called in Lithuania. However, such attempts have already been made twice. In the best case, as was the case in 2006 during the formation of the cabinet of Gediminas Kirkilas, the Social Democrats who played the main role in it were able to persuade the conservatives not to interfere with their work. This happened solely due to the Prime Minister's flexibility. However, his popularity is now falling sharply within the party itself, and he is unlikely to be able to retain his post as leader of the Social Democrats. And those who replace him are unlikely to want to spoil their reputation in the eyes of voters by fraternizing with the right.
Conservatives have little chance of forming a right-wing coalition under their leadership - there will simply be no one to create it from. They are critical of the experience of the social democrats’ practical work with parties that the rightists themselves contemptuously call “populist.” However, it may also happen that the core of the new coalition will be supporters of Paksas and Uspaskich. In this case, the Social Democrats, who currently occupy fourth place in the ranking, will have the unenviable role of junior coalition partners. If this really happens, Lithuania will face significant changes in domestic politics, including a reduction in the size of parliament. Vilnius’s policy towards Moscow will also become more balanced and friendly.
These elections saw innovations in the organization of the election campaign. The decision made four years ago to finance parties from the state budget with restrictions on private sponsorship was supplemented by stricter requirements for political advertising. All candidates received the same free access to radio and television, personal liability for disseminating compromising material was introduced, and commercials were prohibited. This has had a positive impact on the overall atmosphere of the campaign - it has so far been almost free of “sensational revelations” and political scandals, while there has been a noticeable increase in substantive debates and discussions.
However, restrictions on advertising stimulated the search for other forms of campaigning that were not covered by prohibitions. Filmmakers rushed into action, and at the very beginning of the campaign, several films on political themes were released. The feature film “Pilot” is dedicated to the events of four years ago - the impeachment of President Paxas. The painting contains portraits of many famous politicians and depicts the landscape of the political mores of modern Lithuania. Another powerful channel for political battles was the Internet, which is not covered by the new rules. There are audio and video debates, live broadcasts, politicians do their best to advertise themselves through individual blogs. According to the chairman of the Lithuanian Union of Journalists, Dainius Radzevicius, never before has there been such intensive communication between candidates and voters in the country as this time.