Fundamentals of Voroncology

Voroncology differs from Voronology and the counting of raven. Voroncology is a study of the development of funnels. A funnel is not necessarily what remains after the explosion of the projectile, or what is murmured in a faulty toilet. In this text, a funnel is an inevitable logic of the development of events that comes into force when some decision is made.

So, given. First: the stock crisis, warmed up to the stage of panic. The second: multi -trillion injections of rubles to the stock market, the banking sector and oil companies (they reduced the export, that is, they shared oil reserve money with them). The question is: what's next?

I emphasize: state -owners can be treated as you like, but their non -alternativeness should be recognized in this situation. A fire on the exchange is when no one buys anything. You can only extinguish it with money that will raise demand, the other is not invented. Who doubts can look at the USA. And in a fire, no one, except the state, has no money. This, by the way, is the fundamental difference of what happened in September 2008, from the events of August 1998. Ten years ago, state financials were the first to stain, the hope for the help of the IMF was not justified, and the ruble exchange rate, and behind it, everything else flew where it flew. By 2008, the state had prepared better - thanks to the accused of monetarismbuggagerism Alexei Kudrin.

They tell us from above: macroeconomic stability will return everything to its place. Alas, it doesn’t happen. It is not worth what happens to securities, and not with factories, treated as something insignificant. The exchange crisis is a petrel. Even if it manages to shoot or scare away, the previous situation in macroeconomics will no longer be.

The investigation is the first - a further slowdown of investment, including in fixed assets. The situation is already alarming: for almost six months, the growth rate of these investments is reduced. There are no statistics for September yet, but she has every chance of breaking the records of capital flights of both residents and non -residents. I will not be surprised if the volume of production investment is absolutely reduced. The investigation is the second - a new rise in prices. It must be taken into account that first of all, state departments replace the escaped capital, that is, there will be no price tsunami, but the pre -Bire level of price growth, of course, will be surpassed, which the same Kudrin recognizes. Let me remind you that in recent months the increase in selling prices in industry exceeds 30% in annual calculus. This is another investment brake and another argument in favor of a leap of consumer prices.

All together is the threat of a crisis of the whole economy or, in any case, a sharp reduction in its growth rate.

Until now, we have not crawled out of the funnel, such is an objective course of events. But there is another possible consequence, which is already completely conscious. We are pushed to this conclusion: all the problems of the economy are able to solve exclusively the state. And this conclusion is prepared not only with the last crisis. And if so, then there is no fork ahead: they say, to the right - a return to privatization after the anti -crisis activity of the state; To the left is hospitalism and its consequences. Instead, an exclusively left turn remains. And he does not lead to a bright future, but to an unforgettable mobilization past.