Translated material
Gorky cure for the economic crisis
The wave of the financial crisis, the epicenter of which is located in the United States, is gradually driving up to the Russian shores. So far, as far as this can be judged by the presentations of state authorities and the media, the difficulties experienced by the Russian banking system and the stock market are mainly caused by non -residents. Faced with short -term capital in their homeland, international financial companies hastily withdraws from foreign markets, including Russian. Therefore, the depressed stock market, which almost 90% ate foreign money, is understandable and predictable.
In principle, we could not cause a general crisis in the economy, since the Russian stock market, in contrast, say, the American, European Asian, has any real impact on the economic situation in Strange, It just so happened that internal savings in Russia are not enough, so Russian companies go to foreign funds for development for development. In the Russian stock market, they do not attract capital, because, in fact, there is nothing to attract. Therefore, if the fall, say, the European Fund index means that for securities issuing companies, the path for placement is closed, then the fall of the Russian stock market for issuers means nothing-they were still not seriously located on it.
And if the Russian Fund market were securely isolated from the rest of the economic system, the events taking place on it could not be taken seriously at all. However, unfortunately, the insulation turned out to be weak, and the crisis of the stock market caused by the cost of foreign money spread to the credit market.
The fact is that the fall of the Russian stock index, after the departure of non -residents, is made by the provision that banks accepted when issuing loans. That is, usually the provision of loans are parties of goods, on security deposits of which are also issued. But very often, it is not the goods that are not used as a deposit (the cost of the roast has not yet changed much), but the securities that are quoted on exchanges. For banks, this is a more convenient form of security than working with a commodity collateral, since sometimes it is difficult to sell this or another commodity party, if the loan is not extinguished is quite difficult. But there are no problems with shares. They can always be sold on the Fund exchange and regain the cost of an outstanding loan. At the same time, banks, of course, take into account possible fluctuations in the cost of the pledge, and accept the voltage of the shares so that their value is obviously exceeding the size of the crime issued, thus insureing itself from the fall in the cost of security.
However, all the insurance once was powerless. The stock rate fell so strongly that the reserve was quickly exhausted in the cost of providing, acredites - unsecured. This situation is called Margin-Call, and upon its occurrence, the bank requires the borrowers to receive the provision in order to grow it to the same size. But, as a rule, borrowers cannot finish the provision.
The personally, this situation is crisis. The banks are in the hands of portfoliocredites, which do not have reliable security, and borrowers have no resources to restore the provision. This situation may have two outcomes. The first - having stood up with the fall of the value of the bailiffs and the unwillingness to borrow their value, banks can begin the bankruptcy procedure of their clients, trying to arrest all their property in order to guarantee the refund of loans at least as if. This procedure is very dreary and dangerous, especially in the midst of crises, so banks try not to abuse it. The outcome of the second - the bank pretends that nothing terrible happens and the cost of the cost of pledges does not bother him. The main thing is that customers are returned loans. If loans are returned, even if not all and not exactly a bar, the bank can assume what has carried. But if loans are not returned, the bank itself turns out to be bankrupt, as, indeed, its debtors. And the femorisis, of course, acquires a more global character.
However, there is a capacity to avoid such a situation if someone, having several hundred billion in the tanning market, appear on the stock market (it does not matter in what currency). The bastard of these billions to the stock market will allow raising stock indexes to automatically restore the cost of providing loans. And then the crisis system will resolve by itself. In our conditions, in the role of such a “someone” the acting central bank of the Russian Federation, which provided decent amounts of Vnesheconombank - bankudy for the acquisition of securities of Russian issuers, rotating the entertained market. That is, those securities that non -residents in panicopriyed will now receive a new owner represented by the State Humanit case. And the companies whose shares were purchased is a new major servant who probably claims to be a place in the council of directors of these company companies. But these are the inevitable costs of salvation, because after the fire, even if the tuppies is extinguished, it always carries Garya for a long time. Still, the choice now - between the Krakhkombank system, with the subsequent industrial recession and the expansion of the gateway in the share capital of several, albeit very large, companies.
The similarity of salvation will most likely be implemented in the housing market, which is also greatly overheated. The authorities, rather at the regional than at the federal level, will begin to buy real estate from construction companies, helping them to avoid crisisis and receive funding to complete the passing construction. In addition, for construction companies, a state construction order is always ready for the guidelines for the public sector, and this is in crisis times for a nasal help. Interestingly, however, at what price the already built buildings will be bought-will the authorities really receive a discount on pre-crisis?
Thus, if the crisis ends only with the outflow of foreign capital of the SROSICAL stock market, then it will be possible to say that we got off with an easy fright. Of course, no new investments for at least a year, or even two, our real and banking sector will not see, and therefore their development will become a dead. But the slowdown in development is not the most terrible option for developing, as there may be things worse - if a panic of mid -settlement begins, and it will pull deposits from banks and, to complete the picture, turn them into foreign currency. This situation will be truly insistent, but so far it is possible to avoid it thanks to the promptly accepted: firstly, an increase in the insurance amount by deposits of individuals to 700 thousand rubles. And, secondly, quick buying out insolvent banks. In this way, the whole mass of depositors are used, and individual gaps in the banking system are eliminated.
True, a single-alosional link in our system still remains. If the Central Bank is not eager to control the ruble from a strong fall relative to the dollar, then the panicagrant is. Until now, the Central Bank has succeeded, but who knows that it will be ...