Translated material
Ratings slowdown
Sociologists search for political consequences of the financial crisis
In November, Russians felt the consequences of the economic crisis and began to trust financial institutions less. Over the past month, political ratings have also decreased slightly. At the same time, for the most part, our citizens continue to remain optimistic and hope that tomorrow life will be better and more fun. Such conclusions follow from data from the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) and the National Agency for Financial Research, presented at yesterday’s press conference.“The crisis has come, even on state television channels they began to use this word,” stated the general director of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov. -- It is moving from the financial plane to the economic one, but there will also be social consequences: layoffs, increased unemployment, increased anxiety. And of course, there is the question of political consequences.”
After this, Mr. Fedorov showed graphs indicating that political ratings, although not collapsed, had already been shaken along with stock market indices. In particular, the level of trust in the institution of the presidency in November was 74%, while in June-September it reached 79%. However, the general director of VTsIOM attributes this decline to the fact that the topic of the South Ossetian conflict has faded into the background - as is usual in Russia, the war added political points to the head of state. The share of those who approve of the Prime Minister's performance was 78% in November, while in October this figure was 1% higher. And in June, 81% of respondents approved of the work of the head of government.
The approval rate for the cabinet as a whole was 53% in November. A press release from VTsIOM notes that “this is the highest figure in two years,” although it is hardly possible to compare the level of trust in the government led by “technical prime ministers” Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov with the rating of the Cabinet headed by “national leader” Vladimir Putin. Vtsiomov's charts clearly show that, upon arriving at the White House, the ex-president blessed him with his high rating. But in October, slightly more expressed confidence in the Putin government - 55% of respondents. By the way, similar data were recently published by sociologists of the Levada Center (see Vremya Novostey, November 25).
As for personal ratings, 61% of respondents personally liked Vladimir Putin in June, 62% in October, and 58% in November. It is curious that for some reason the VTsIOM press release compares the last month’s figure with 2006, when the popularity of President Putin, not the prime minister, was “only” 50%. Guided by this logic, Dmitry Medvedev’s rating should also be compared with data from two years ago: now he is supported by 43% of respondents, and in 2006 only 7% had confidence in the First Deputy Prime Minister - the increase in popularity is obvious! Without looking into such antiquity, analysts chose June of this year for comparison, when 40% expressed confidence in the head of state who had just taken office. However, in October, 46% reported their love for Mr. Medvedev to sociologists - that is, 3% more than now.
In general, from the data provided, Valery Fedorov concluded: “No political consequences of the crisis in Russia have been detected.” At the same time, he admitted that the Russians had already felt: “The seven fat years are over, and they are being replaced by years that are not so fat.”
“Yes, we live in turbulent times,” Olga Kuzina, director of the National Agency for Financial Research (NAFI), took the initiative. After that, she presented a rating of citizens' trust in financial institutions. During the surveys, respondents gave assessments on three main indicators: profitability, transparency and reliability, and on the last two parameters they were asked to assess both the current situation and give a forecast for the year. It turned out that the crisis of confidence in banks is already growing, but so far only in special groups - we are talking about people with higher education and high incomes living in cities with a population of over a million. This is the emerging Russian middle class, which was hit first by the crisis. “The rest of Russia doesn’t feel it yet,” concluded Olga Kuzina. “Moscow turned out to be the most sensitive to these processes, but soon the crisis will come to medium-sized and small cities.”
In the meantime, she notes that “expectations, although not by much, are still higher than current assessments of the situation in all socio-economic groups.” In other words, Russians remain optimistic and, despite the crisis, believe that tomorrow will be better than today. By the way, such optimism does not always lead to good. NAFI Research Director Dilyara Ibragimova, in an interview with a Vremya Novostei correspondent, noted that the greatest gap between a low assessment of the current situation and faith in a rosy future was noted by sociologists in the early 90s, at the height of the era of financial pyramids.
Summing up the press conference, Olga Kuzina emphasized: “Capitalism is a cyclical thing, it is characterized by ups and downs, Americans and Europeans have known this for a long time, but we are learning now.” Including the cyclical nature of ratings.