"Secret of the Company" asked business representatives about what they expect from 2009 for their industries, as well as for the economy as a whole. It turned out - nothing good.

Text: Yulia Gordienko, Nina Danilina, Pavel Kulikov, Polina Rusyaeva, Denis Tykulov, Alexandra Ubozhenko

Question 1: What trends will have the greatest impact on your business in 2009?

Question 2: What do you expect from the coming year for the country's economy?

Andrey Bekarev, co-owner of URSA Bank

1. We have not yet found the bottom of the crisis; we will go through the “hole” around the end of spring. Small banks that do not have access to liabilities will be hit the hardest. The main trend in the new year will be the consolidation of financial structures. Of the currently existing 1,100 banks, in a few years there should be no more than 200 left. At the same time, changes in legislation will occur. First of all, M&A procedures will be simplified and a law on irrevocable deposits will be adopted.

2. An instant one-time devaluation of the ruble within 15-20% would immediately remove a lot of economic problems, spurring industry, but from a political point of view this is unlikely. The real sector faces difficult times. In a growing economy, companies did not sufficiently control their costs. But there is a chance that if most companies increase their efficiency, then after the third quarter of 2009 we will begin to integrate into world markets on more favorable terms.

Oleg Pronin, General Director of Peresvet-invest Management Company

1. A decrease in lending volumes and consumer demand will seriously affect the business of developers. First, prices for new housing will fall by 25-30%, then the secondary market will begin to fall. Housing will be built mainly through government programs. Large economy class developers who will be able to sell apartments under government orders for social needs will be in the most advantageous position. And in the most vulnerable - companies whose share of borrowed funds in projects was from 60%. The commissioning of new facilities in 2009 will be minimal. This, unfortunately, will slow down the development of the construction industry, and set the market back a couple of years.

2. Next year will be difficult not only for the real estate market. It will be difficult for everyone. Many companies will leave the market completely, others will merge with stronger players. The tense situation will continue for about two years.

Mikhail Shamolin, President of MTS

1. As prices for data services from mobile operators decrease, mobile Internet will become a real alternative to fixed-line Internet. 3G technology will provide serious support to the development of data services and heavy content. The trend of transforming telecommunications companies into universal telecom operators (such as the merged VimpelCom, Golden Telecom and Corbina.- SF) will continue. Therefore, in addition to traditional voice services and content, we will see many projects in the field of Internet, TV, advertising, banking and navigation.

2. The key factor in economic recovery will be the growth of labor productivity. Unfortunately, in this indicator Russia is inferior to almost all developed countries. The situation can only be improved through the introduction of innovative technologies for organizing workplaces and production processes. The services of mobile operators will play a primary role in this.

Oleg Bolychev, Chairman of the Board of Directors and co-owner of Vester Group of Companies

1. The crisis will have the greatest impact on the work of food retailers. I expect that many of the top ten players will see changes in their shareholders due to their high leverage. Smaller chains may go the route of mergers and acquisitions. True, in my opinion, regional large chains with a turnover of more than $300 million are in a more advantageous position than federal retailers. This is due to the more conservative development of regional players - they are less debt-ridden.

2. My forecast is the most pessimistic. The year will be very bad because the economies of the US and Europe will not recover. At best, they will begin to grow slowly at the end of 2010.

Our country today rests on two things: oil and Western capital. The first income is taken entirely by the state, replenishing the treasury and maintaining social stability. And that's right, I think. And the Western investor will not return to us soon. First it will come to the USA, then to Europe, then to China and only lastly to India, Brazil and Russia. Because the American economy has already fallen by 25%, and ours by 57%.

Ilya Timchenko, General Director of the White Wind - Digital network

1. The market will depend on three factors. The first is consumer expectations and their confidence in the future. New layoffs, wage cuts and ruble devaluation will not have the best effect. Digital technology is not an essential commodity, and its consumption will fall in 2009. The second factor is the availability of financing for both the population and business. In the best years, the share of sales in the White Wind - Digital network involving consumer lending was 15%. In 2009, according to our forecasts, it will fall to 3-4% of total sales. The third is EBITDA margin. In most networks that sell digital and consumer electronics, the figure this year was no more than 1-2%.

2. Investors will begin to return to Russia only in the second half of 2010. America and Europe are facing a recession. Throughout 2009 they will deal with internal problems. At the same time, I think the price of oil will vary next year in the range of about $40 per barrel. But in general, I am optimistic - of course, the weak will lose their positions, but the strong will only be healthier after the crisis.

Alexey Menitsky, General Director of Atlant-Soyuz Airlines

1. The activities of airlines will be affected by the cost of kerosene and the population’s demand for flights. According to preliminary forecasts, the cost of aviation fuel in 2009 should fall to 15 thousand rubles. per ton (in August 2008 it exceeded 35 thousand rubles - SF). Naturally, this benefits all airlines. But at the same time, we felt a decrease in demand: in the current winter season by almost 30% compared to the previous year. This is especially true for tourist transport. So far it is believed that the summer of 2009 will be more or less successful. However, previously, airlines opened new routes every year and planned to increase traffic volumes. Now it will be an achievement if we at least manage to maintain passenger traffic at the same level. Several companies have already ceased operations. It will be even harder in February-March. I think that those air carriers that survive the winter and last until April will, as a result, continue to exist.

2. The price of oil will regulate the economy. It's no secret that Russia's budget is planned at a rate of at least $50 per barrel. However, not a single macroeconomist will now undertake to predict what the price will actually be.

Igor Khudokormov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Prodimex company

1. The devaluation of the ruble will have a positive impact on the agricultural industry, as it will become more competitive with respect to imported products. The second positive point is the expected global increase in prices for grain crops by 20-25%. All this will add 50% to the current profitability of agricultural companies.

On the other hand, banks will take a significant part of the profitability. If at the beginning of 2008 agricultural enterprises received loans at 9% per annum, then next year the average rate is expected to be around 18%. Problems with liquidity will lead to the fact that small producers will suffer in the quality of crop care and harvesting work. This will encourage further consolidation in the industry.

2. The government will limit the rate of growth of tariffs of natural monopolies, which will lead to a decrease in the growth of prices for gas, electricity, transportation, etc. Oil prices are also unlikely to rise significantly; fluctuations will occur within $30-40 per barrel. Therefore, there will be a reduction in costs in all sectors of the economy. Many businesses will find it difficult to survive without government support. Therefore, it will control that financial flows reach the real sector faster, and will also make recommendations to banks on issuing loans to specific companies.

Slow rise