On November 14–15, in Washington, a meeting of the leaders of the twenty largest economic powers was held, dedicated to the discussion of the situation in the world financial system. They expected a lot from the summit - the coordinated ways of getting out of the crisis and even a radical change in world financial architecture. The results were much more modest than expectations: the new Brettonwood system was not created, and the crisis continued its attack on the world economy, covering the real sector
Event of the year according to The New Times
There is no doubt that the world economy is experiencing one of the most difficult periods in its history over the past 60 years, that the shocks that the banking systems of Europe and America have put them on the brink of survival, and the actual nationalization was the only effective tool for their salvation. It is equally obvious that the financial systems of Europe and America are so closely intertwined that problems on the one side of the Atlantic Ocean immediately reflect their reflection on the other. However, what does this have to do with world financial architecture?
Required "scapegoat" is required
Widely discussed in recent weeks, this thesis reminded me of the plot that arose after the collapse of the largest American companies Enron, Tyco International, Adelphia, Peregrine Systems and Worldcom, about corporate governance. Let me remind you that all these companies, which cost more than one hundred billion dollars, went bankrupt due to the fact that they actually falsified their reports, which was confirmed by the auditors. This series of same type of plots strongly “strained” American public opinion, which largely lost confidence in the stock market.
To overcome the current situation, it was necessary to find the “scapegoat”, which were announced by Enron auditors (Arthur Andersen) and the current corporate governance system, which created a distorted incentive system for corporation managers and allowed them to avoid responsibility for their policy. The Sarbens-Oxley law was adopted, which sharply increased the requirements for the first persons of corporations and the disclosure of reporting for companies traded on American exchanges. A wave of conferences and seminars dedicated to improving the quality of corporate governance rolled around the world, even corporate governance ratings were introduced ... However, this wave came to naught already 3-4 years ago, when it turned out that it was impossible to change anything in the corporate governing system.
In the "Anglo-Saxon" companies (where the property of blurred and the largest shareholders control, as a rule, from 3% to 10%), directors are still formed by management, and in the "continental" (where there is a actually controlling shareholder)-the majority of the largest shareholder and the "independent" director are occupied by the Council of Directors. But it is precisely the need to build such a management system, which would reflect the interests of all shareholders, including minority, was at the center of discussion of the problem called “Corporate Management”. No, of course, in a number of countries (for example, in Russia), this topic played a significant role, since it forced many owners of companies entering public markets, at least observe external rules of decency. However, the examples of the last time, say, the redemption of OGK-3, actually controlled by Interros, the package of Rusia Petroleum shares at the same Interros, which, in turn, belongs to the chairman of the National Council of Corporate Governance, Vladimir Potanin, clearly demonstrate the real depth of change.
According to the familiar script
I do not want to say that in America something has changed a lot: the current crisis is largely explained by the fact that this time the financial sector in the mass order learned to embellish its reporting. I emphasize that we are not talking about the underestimation of risks by leading American banks - they perfectly understood the risk that they take on themselves, otherwise they would not deduce the same non -standard mortgage loans for the balance, with which it all began. Moreover, in this distortion of reporting, rating agencies, auditors, and insurers actively contributed to them (see more than the New Times No. 40, 2008). As a result, the bankruptcy or nationalization of the largest financial institutions in the United States and Europe, the colossal budget expenses, the paralysis of lending and the collapse of financial markets around the world, the depreciation of investments (including pension) millions of ordinary Americans. There is no doubt, the American, and European establishment needs to urgently undertake a “distracting maneuver” and appoint a new “scapegoat”.
Then everything is played out according to a well -known scenario. Firstly, it seems that this time you can no longer by the approximate punishment of one rating agency or an audit company. Since the crisis struck the world financial system, the solution should be global. Yes, and the leaders of leading countries will be searching for ways to get out of the crisis. In this regard, the term “reform of global financial architecture” sounds more abrupt than “corporate governance”.
Secondly, every soldier should know his maneuver. The crisis began in America, so the United States should lead the entire process - that is why President Bush invites everyone to visit. Each of the guests has its own role. The faithful allies - the British - already realized that there was barely enough money to help their banks, so that other countries need to be saved at someone else's expense. And now the appeal of Gordon Brown to the oil producing countries is already sounding: they say, you have already earned a lot, you need to share, give me the IMF money! True, at the same time, not the word that traditionally contributions to the International Monetary Fund are made in proportion to the quotas that are divided, and neither the US has no desire to revise them or even more so the United States.
Thirdly, where without Russia. The Russian authorities also do not stand aside and continue to dig a digging under the single -Polar world and threaten to destroy everything “to the ground, and then ...” and there are calls from Moscow to abandon the monopoly of one currency and create a multiplicity of reserve currencies and the multiplicity of financial centers. As if someone from under the stick drives bankers to work in London or New York, despite the fact that the conditions for their work, for example, in Moscow are much better: Sheremetyevo Airport has long overtook the quality of service of all its competitors, Moscow courts are honestly and quickly on the basis of all understandable and clear laws, the city does not know for many years what automobile traffic jams are. And why are they not going to us?
Down with Bretton Woods
Following this, the Minister of Finance, and then the President of Russia, declare that Brettonwood institutes 2 cannot cope with the financial crisis, and therefore must be reformed. Let me remind you that the Brettonwood system provided for a system of fixed currencies to each other and the gold standard for the dollar (just do not laugh - this was the very multiplicity of reserve currencies!), As well as the creation of two international institutions - the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which were designed to maintain the stability of such a currency system. It should be noted that both the IMF and the World Bank, according to their creation agreements, work only with the participating countries and very rudely-their functions consist in supporting payment balance during crises (what the IMF does) and the implementation of structural reforms and development programs that can make national economies more sustainable (this is the Field of responsibility of the World Bank).
It is doubtful that, speaking of the reform of these institutions, Russian leaders seriously want to offer, for example, to turn the IMF into an interstate rating agency or the World Bank - into a world supervisory authority. It is unlikely that such proposals will be supported by someone from influential and serious economic leaders. But to propose to change the prevailing proportions of votes in the management of international institutions (both in the IMF and the World Bank, the majority of votes belong to the countries of the Seven) will be possible for Russian leaders. Moreover, it is possible to and which coalition to be conducive to the dominant positions of “American imperialism”: the Gulf of Persian and China may well wander into $ 100-200 billion in order to receive a larger share of the IMF and the World Bank. Only now they want to share these voices with Russia? And even more so, is there a simple increase in its shares when voting if Russia is looking for support by these institutions in promoting its model of “sovereign economic policy”?
And the idea of “driving a wedge” between the Anglo -Saxon and continental rules and the principles of accounting looks completely ridiculous. It is clear to any specialist in this field that the differences between these systems are as the difference between BMW and Mercedes, and it is unlikely that the designers of the Lada can bring something to this confrontation. And it is strange that our Ministry of Finance is unknown: the movement towards the convergence of these two systems began for a long time and continues sequentially. Only now, it is unlikely that anyone else will agree with the proposals to convey the functions of the arbiter in disputes about the legality of the reflection in the accounting of certain operations to the Russian General Prosecutor's Office. And it doesn’t matter whether one will be a system or two and how strong the differences between them will be ...
What will solve "twenty"
What can you really expect from the Washington summit?
Firstly, there is no doubt that it is the American authorities that will offer something that will be (after short discussions) is supported by all participants.
Secondly, and this is the most important thing, any result of this meeting will be aimed at restoring trust in the international financial system. “Twenty” will have to find words that companies, banks, investors around the world will be convinced that all efforts will be made to maximize the further spray of the crisis.
Thirdly, the responsibility of the supervisory authorities of different countries for their mistakes will be emphasized, they will be advised (nevertheless in most countries the supervisory authorities are central banks that are truly independent from governments) to analyze these errors within the framework of existing structures (international settlements) and make the necessary decisions.
Fourth, a number of countries will agree to allocate money for the implementation of the IMF programs (whether Russia will be among them is not a fact: until Gordon Brown has even addressed our authorities with this request).
And finally, rating agencies and auditors will somehow punish. The question is, how effective will this punishment be and will the income from current activities be a stronger incentive for them? And do not have to read the same fairy tale in the same way after 7-10 years again?
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1 Sarbanes-Oxley Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002.
2 Bretton-Woods-a mountain resort in the state of New Hampshire (USA), where in July 1944, at a conference on monetarism and finance, representatives of 44 countries signed an agreement on foreign exchange and payment systems.
Igor Jurgens, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Modern Development
The issue of the new financial architecture will arise at the moment when liquidity is replenished, when new regulation standards begin to be produced, when the barrier of excessive deprivation is placed. It is about the new architecture, because after the Brettonwood agreements the dollar has absolutely broken off any equivalent from the late 1960s, and the whole world depends only on the federal reserve system, that is, on the American economy. For the time being, the dollar behaved adequately - and everyone was happy. The Chinese considered the US federal treasury obligations the most reliable tool. But George Bush came, who, on the one hand, began the war and launched trillions on it, and on the other hand, reduced taxes - these are two incompatible things. Since errors are possible, since the subjective factor plays a role even in such an economy as American, you need to do something about it. Nobody knows what.
It is clear that Euro and Yuan can play a serious role. But this is so far. And here Russia will have to participate in the process of building a new architecture. This is natural: we are the tenth economy of the world in parity of purchasing power, the seventh - in volume.
Investment consultant, first deputy chairman of the Central Bank in 1995-1998
