Maxim Blanc about the consequences of the crisis: apartments will become cheaper, but sausage will not become cheaper

Maxim Blunt , the Economic observer Newsru.com , appreciated the scale of the current economic crisis in the program "Special Opinion" on the Echo of Moscow Radio.

The current situation was predictable, and although the forecasts for the future are terrible, much will depend on how much the government is ready for a new turn.

About social programs

The budget expenditures will be reduced, our observer predicts, with the exception of social programs and the salaries of state employees. The reduction of these expenses, firstly, is explosive, and secondly, the growth of salaries and benefits stimulates demand and supports the manufacturer, which ultimately can withdraw the economy out of the crisis.

The investment activity of the government will be reduced primarily - a waste of road repair, the housing and communal services fund. State investments were not particularly effective, and thanks to them Russia could not become an “island of stability”, he summarizes.

On the budget deficit

6.8 trillion rubles have already been spent, the budget deficit is predicted at half this amount. The question of the timeliness of these expenses is not discussed, said Maxim Blunt. In September, the banking system was in a pre -human condition, and without state money, it would have collapsed completely. Since the social consequences of Sberbank bankruptcy are difficult to overestimate, the state will continue to spend money on the reserve fund to support key industries.

About social protests

People believe that the government did not justify their hopes, and go to the streets. You can be full, but not have freedoms. But if the people are not fed and not free - it is difficult to keep it at home.

Nevertheless, while the crisis is aligned by the income gap that existed in the country. Those who have something to lose more lose more. With consumer deflation, those who have a stable income guaranteed by the state: state employees and pensioners win.

The crisis will increase the number of poor, but those who save the work will not lose much. The middle class may be consoled by the fact that the state of Deripaska or any other owner of a large stock of shares suffered losses of tens of billions of dollars.

Apartments and gasoline will become cheaper, our expert predicts. But sausage will not be cheaper - the government supports food security and domestic manufacturer, so the cheap imported meat from which sausage is made with the development of the crisis will disappear.