Gas war

Israel has been applying powerful air strikes on Hamas’s militants in the Gaza sector for several days. The number of dead exceeds 300. Will further escalation of hostilities in the Middle East occur? Will the Jewish state be able to ensure its security by responding to terror? The opinions of Russian and Israeli experts.

Fedor Lukyanov , editor -in -chief of Russia "Russia in Global Policy":

The outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has a chance to go down in history as the first Israeli leader who did not achieve victory in the war he had begun. I mean the 2006 war against the Hizball group. Then, after a month of hostilities, the goals were never achieved and, in general opinion, this was a very strong blow to the reputation of Israel as a state that always wins.

Now Olmert cannot allow such a thing, especially since in the case of Hizballa, it was possible to say that the goal was to destroy military infrastructure, then here everyone understands that Israel wants to solve the Hamas problem in gas finally. If this succeeds, that is, after massive attacks from the air, land operations will follow and Hamas will be eliminated, we can assume that Israel won. If not, let's say, political pressure from the outside will be so great that Israel will have to stop the fighting without achieving the goal - this will mean, firstly, a confident victory of the right in the parliamentary elections, since all moderate will be discredited, and secondly, a further weakening of the Israeli position. Unfortunately, success will come only through hostilities until the result is achieved.

Evgeny Satanovsky , President of the Institute for the Study of Israel and the Middle East:

The development of events is approximately as follows: the continuation of aviation strikes, now the second echelon of bomb strokes is being worked out, in the third echelon it is possible that Hamas’s political leaders will be liquidated. Previously, a prison was destroyed where Fatha militants were sitting, today they were free, tunnels were destroyed, along which smuggling was walking, and several thousand people appeared on the surface, and there have not yet been struck. The dead today are mainly the senior command staff of the Khamas units, as well as the leaders of such terrorist groups as the Islamic Jihad.

If during the Second Lebanese war the Israelis could not sear and eliminate launcher with remote control, today they learned to do this, and the fact that instead of 200 launches of missiles a day today are produced 60 on the territory of Israel, suggests that at least two -thirds of the goals are amazed.

When all goals are amazed, heavy equipment and special forces will go. What is called "to the end." Here's how Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin did, being president, and Akhmat-Haji Kadyrov with the current president Ramzan Akhmatovich-this is called "to the end." And it is no coincidence that in Israel there are such amazing statements today that it is time to appoint Kadyrov President Palestine.

Today, the whole Arab world, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for Israel to bring this operation to the end. Read that official columnists write in the Saudi and Egyptian press: they all say that Hamas, who preferred Iran of the Arab brothers, is to blame for everything, is an instrument of Iranian policy in the Arab world.

What is happening now is not a counter -terrorist stripping, but a military operation aimed at defeating the Iranian bridgeheads, one of which is Hizball in South Lebanon, and the second is Hamas in Gaza. Who will be against the Arab world? Therefore, here the Arabs gave Israel the freedom of hands, especially since the Egyptians warned Hamas that the operation would be. (Israeli Foreign Minister. - Ed.) Tsipi Livni completely openly provided this information to the leadership of the Egyptian intelligence services and the Egyptian President. - Ed.) Mubaraku, so that at least the Egyptians try to convince Hamas that jokes with missile shelling, when the number of missiles came to several and a small hundreds a day, will end very poorly. But Hamas considered that the Israelis would not attack, and continued shelling.

Now this is a war. The abyss does not turn into two steps. If you began to eliminate the enemy, then you need to finish. No need to chop the cat's tail in parts.

Zeev Khanin , political scientist (University of Bar-Ilan, Tel Aviv):

At least three options for further development of events. Radical - the rendering of a gase and the restoration of the situation that existed before the "demarcation", when Ariel Sharon unilaterally led out military units and Jewish settlements from the gases in the calculation that there would be no more subject for the conflict, and the Palestinians will lay down the machine guns and take the shovels in their hands. As we see, the situation went along a completely different path. Not moderate power in Gaza came to power, but Islamists from Hamas, who perceived this situation as a demonstration of Israeli weakness, and gas became not a prosperous island, but by a criminal terrorist enclave to promote the ideas of the Islamic revolution, to create its state and destroy another, that is, Israel.

So the first option is this: to occupy gas again, restore the Israeli military, and possibly a civil presence and preserve it for 20-25 years, pursuing a policy of "reclamation": bring the local population to their senses, completely change the social, political and military infrastructure. The discussion is about whether Israel should do it, or is it necessary to make an “offer that cannot be abandoned” to transfer this territory to it.

This is one model - what our right camp offers. Another model that the left camp offers is to make the “reprimand” to these children, suppress the main points of the terror infrastructure and leave. The main task here is the return of the so -called "deterrence potential" - there is a convincing "hamasnikov" to stop shooting and finish the campaign on this. And then legitimize Hamas and enter into negotiations with him without preliminary conditions.

The third option is the complete destruction of the terror infrastructure, but without changing the political regime in gas. This is what the current government wants. The interest of the centrists who are now in power is to save the idea of ​​one -sided demarcation. The interest of the current Israeli leadership is completely, as far as possible, to destroy the terror infrastructure, to largely undermine the political infrastructure, but not to take gas under its responsibility.

If all the goals are achieved, the government will declare that it can no longer ignore the requirements of the international community, but this will not happen earlier than the main fortified areas, most of the catacombs and tunnels for the transfer of troops, explosives and the organization of sabotage will be destroyed.

Our Air Force destroys about one general per hour, but Hamas’s political wing activists have not yet been touched if you noticed.

Hamas’s mothballed agents are now defrosted and does what she was paid for: it arranges demonstrations, promotes mosques, etc. The bulk of the Arab population understands that it smells fried and “wet” will be right and guilty. Because cooperation with the enemy during the war is evaluated in a completely different way. Our Arab fellow citizens understand that we are, although a European country, but still in the east. Therefore, they are not particularly protruding. As for the Jewish sector, then, as always, 10-12 percent believes that it is already enough, it is time to terminate the fighting and offer Hamas without prior conditions negotiations. The rest support the operation, including those who suffer from it directly.

Zeev Elkin , deputy of the Knesset from the Likud party:

To engage in predictions in the Middle East is an ungrateful business. In any case, it is clear that so far the shelling of Israeli territories will continue and while the life of civilians of Israel, children, women, the elderly will be at risk, the Israeli army is obliged to protect their citizens. Israel postponed this operation for a very long time, the government did not want it very much, but in this situation, Israel simply has no other choice.

The population of the Gaza sector knows that there is a very simple way to achieve a ceasefire is to stop shelling Israeli territories. Unfortunately, experience shows that Hamas militants who today control the Gaza sector are not interested in the fate of the Palestinian population. They see their interest in the fight against Israel and turn the population into hostages of their terrorist policy. This is what has happened so far and will happen in the future. Israel uses all the means that are at his disposal.