The results of the year. Christmas tree and stick

The past year in our country gave three indisputable basic events, each of which will be continued in the year next.

I call in chronological order. Presidential elections, the election of D.A. Medvedev President and education in Russia De Facto by the double -headed system of power.

The war with Georgia and, as a result, a sharp tightening of relations with the West, primarily with the USA. Crisis, which has called into question as the effectiveness of the economic policy of recent years, and, possibly, socio-political stability.

Speaking about what awaits us next, the order of the indicated events should be changed to the opposite - already in terms of importance.

Experts say that the crisis will last one and a half to two years, and then the world, and with it the Russian economy will go up. To drink honey with the mouth of specialists. But they do not say-and no one knows-how deeply in one and a half to two years the economy will have time to dive. Those. From what depth she will have to swim to the surface. This is the first. And the second - and most importantly - consists in the fact that in this kind of forecasts a priori implies the binding of our economy to the world. According to understandable human logic: there is only one infection, together they got sick - together and recover. At the same time, the specific national features of the functioning of our financial and economic system, inseparable from our specific decision-making system, i.e., are completely forgotten, i.e. From our specifics in general.

In this regard, it makes sense to recall some particularly vivid episodes of our fight against the crisis.

Episode the first, dragging on a good couple of months. The authorities did not admit that we have a crisis. Apparently, it was not recognized as himself. Well, how is it: we have a crisis? We are not America, really. We have only forward and up. Because we and only the sun shines for us. As a result, the very word “crisis” was under an administrative ban.

Like in a children's joke about the vowel: “There is an ass, but there is no word!”

Until now, in the commercial, on the air only three to four weeks ago, you can hear the formula that is wonderful in its accuracy-“instability in the stock market”. In a similar way, in the early 30s of the NKVD, he reported to Stalin about the Holodomor. This was called - "food difficulties in the village."

The episode is the second. They explained to us why we do not think to decline gas prices following oil prices, as is the case all over the world. They explained intelligibly. Everyone realized that the income of our oil monopolies is concern, problem and headache of ordinary workers. It would be glorious to see how the muzzle of an ordinary, stupid American taxpayer would stretch, when they say that since he loves to ride a wheelbarrow so much, then let him not be bent and make up from his personal pocket the loss of Exson.

The episode is third. Also about cars. A well -known decision to increase tariffs for inexpensive foreign cars to an actually prohibitive level in order to support the domestic auto industry. The social consequences in the Far East are known. The consequences for other regions will come later and will not be so sharp, but they, of course, will also be.

So the first episode has the causes of a purely psychological property: the stick in the highest hand remained, but suddenly ceased to be magical. It is difficult to put up with this and even more difficult to admit it. Well, how - yesterday she turned everything into gold and folk love and suddenly went into a refusal!

But the other two episodes are no longer explained by psychology, but by the practice of life. Support for a large oil business that has infuriated on the super -values ​​of a large oil business and a long -term smell of a car industry to the detriment of the middle class, which in any calm, well -fed country is a stabilizing backbone of society, and in Russia only hatched from an egg, can be justified and purely practically practical considerations. After all, political risks are great and obvious. So, other considerations were more significant. And something also worked that we will call the factor of distance - my dear country is wide. Mr. Chemezov is close, near the ear itself, and the right-handed Far Eastern carriers are far away, they are not heard. After all, who knew them that they would fie up so loudly? Just everyone sat quieter in water, at the sight of the Sun, they fell and only asked for a passionate, love whisper to be taken to the Kremlin on a Christmas tree.

Love is stronger than death - Stalin said this. But it is weaker than the duties on Toyota.

This is all to the fact that our economy is sovereign. Our economy is not quite economic, since the basis of economic solutions are not quite economic motives. And it is not possible to calculate the possible social consequences of these decisions.

We also have not fully appreciated the consequences of the war with Georgia. Just as Barack Obama has not yet appreciated. This guy is not gently whispering, but he smiles softly, but with us this is considered a sign of vulnerability. If a person on the move, instead of “hello”, does not growl in your face - it means a weakness! And it is a sin not to milk it. I think we will be disappointed. With such soft smiles, the speakers of the Masai tribe hunt lions. Obama, smiling softly, will begin to slowly drown nuts. And at the same time, he is unlikely to be enchanted to look into the bottomless depth of the eyes of our national leaders. In the first, he is a democrat. And the democrats are also democrats, which is always, since the time of Franklin Roosevelt, well, they just believe in the romance of democratic values ​​to the romance. They are ideologically consistent with the Republicans, and therefore it was always more difficult for us.

In addition, he, in comparison with Bush, and not only with him - colossal international support. Obama is now a universal favorite and superstar. First of all, he is a superstar of the entire third world. And this provides him with significant resources for any maneuver, including pressure on the Russian leadership. He left the toughest members of the Bush team and aggravated this team by a lady named Hillary Clinton. And she is not a dove. If you add to all this that Russian leaders are not pigeons and are clearly not inclined to change anger to mercy, we can conclude that muscular times are waiting for us. Even more muscular than today.

Georgia has already played its role. Russia and the West communicate in an atmosphere of deep mutual distrust and large and minor insults.

The main points of disagreement: Ukraine (and Ms. Clinton is a consistent supporter of its entry into NATO) and the Middle East, primarily Iran (democrats as a party are more prisilic, and even possible personal indifference to Israel Barack Obama is unlikely to play a decisive role here).

Finally, the couple is president-prime minister. As for their personal relationships, there are no obvious signs of a split. However, according to sociologists, during the crisis and family are destroyed much more often than in a calm time.

It was nice to take responsibility in the irrevocably blessed fat years - it was responsible for success. Now - and the further, the more - the responsibility of a completely different kind - for difficult mistakes, or for harsh and unpopular decisions, or for both at once. And here the moment of truth will come. Here is the end of the end. Bolivar will not stand two. Anyone who does not shy away from responsibility and takes it upon himself, will be deprived of a political future as a reward. And the one who prefers love games with the population will survive and at the same time will be able to maintain virgin innocence.

It has long been known: innocence, like beauty - in the eyes of the watchman.