Waiting for peace

Israel and Hamas negotiate ceasefire

Israel and Hamas, through Egyptian mediation, continue to negotiate a truce. Information about this was published on January 16 by various media outlets citing anonymous sources. On January 15, an Israeli air strike killed one of the three most senior members of the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip, the Minister of Internal Affairs in the Islamist government, Said Siam. The group's security chief and the head of its military wing were also killed.

On the twentieth day of Operation Cast Lead, Israel finally managed to strike at the top leadership of the enemy - , one of the three leaders of Hamas in the Gaza Strip Said Siam , was killed (the leadership of the movement in the strip became collective after the successive killings of its leaders Ahmed Yassin and Aziz al -Rantissi in 2004).

However, despite the statement by the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the movement, of their intention to avenge the death of Siam, on the evening of January 15, the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper , citing Palestinian sources, reported that an agreement to end the war could be reached within 72 hours. fire for two weeks. Israel and Hamas allegedly agreed on its terms based on a plan previously proposed by Egypt.

However, on January 16 it became clear that the coordination process through the mediation of Egypt was still ongoing. Hamas Politburo Chairman Khaled Mashaal said in Doha at a meeting with Arab leaders that the movement will not accept Israeli conditions. According to him, the militants will not stop shelling Israeli territory until the Israelis leave the sector.

According to Reuters, Hamas agrees to a one-year truce, but subject to the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip in 5-7 days. Hamas is also demanding the immediate opening of the sector's border crossings with Egypt and Israel, with Cairo and the international community required to ensure that the checkpoints are not closed again. The Islamists are ready to accept the presence of the Turkish military, who will monitor the crossing on the border with Egypt, but say that they will not agree to the presence of Fatah units there (as should be the case under the 2005 agreement).

Israel, in turn, is not satisfied with the ceasefire term Hamas calls - one year. And although Islamists talk about the possibility of its subsequent extension, the Israelis obviously do not consider such a result adequate to the efforts they have made. If in a year Hamas can again begin shelling Israel with Qassams, then why was it necessary to carry out the current operation, which dealt another blow to the image of the Jewish state in the world?

Israel needs Hamas to agree to an indefinite truce, that is, in fact, a complete renunciation of armed struggle, rocket attacks and terrorist attacks. However, Hamas cannot stop fighting Israel. The destruction of the Jewish state is not just an election promise, thanks to which the Islamists won the parliamentary elections in the autonomy in 2006, but also the raison d'être of this organization, the basis of its legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinians.

Funeral of Said Siam. Photo (c)AFP

After all, if Hamas recognizes Israel, renounces armed struggle, and its leaders begin to meet with Israeli and Western politicians, then it will no longer be Hamas, but Fatah. But there is already one Fatah in the Palestinian lands, the place of the “collaborationist” organization has been taken. Therefore, Hamas can only stand until the last minute or declare self-dissolution.

The Hamas leadership, of course, has long been clear on how to mitigate this contradictory situation, in which the legitimation of the movement among Palestinians on the basis of calls for the destruction of Israel excludes its legitimation in the international arena. It is necessary from time to time to conclude a truce with Israel, presenting ourselves as a party ready for compromise. But Islamists cannot recognize the right of a Jewish state to exist, since in this case the political platform of their movement disappears.

But Israel’s position is not easy either. To agree now to simply a one-year truce means, in essence, to admit the failure of the operation, the purpose of which was officially declared to inflict such damage on Hamas that it would not be able to threaten with rocket attacks for a long time, obviously more than a year. And the question of control over Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip remains open - whether the Turks will vigilantly stop arms smuggling or just pretend to do so is unclear.

Thus, the gloomy forecasts of Israeli conservatives, who warned that withdrawal from Gaza would lead to the transformation of the strip into a base for a terrorist war against Israel, are coming true. Israel's current intentions, despite their apparent obviousness, are still not clear. Hamas is required to agree to an indefinite truce, but there is no guarantee that the Islamists will actually comply with it and will not use it to quickly rearm and prepare new attacks.

Before the start of the operation, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni stated that the Jewish state was generally going to put an end to Hamas rule in the sector. In this case, the military campaign takes on more logic. But it is not clear how to achieve this, given that the majority of residents of the sector recently voted for the Islamists. The only option for eradicating the Hamas government would be a new occupation of the Gaza Strip, but this would undo all Israeli policies of recent years. It is unlikely that the Israelis will agree to this.

In general, the campaign is beginning to take on familiar features of Israel's unsuccessful war with Hezbollah in 2006, when it was not possible to return prisoners or defeat the militants. And it could end the same way - that is, more or less nothing, unless the Israelis suddenly subject their strategy to a radical revision.

Timofey Zabrodov

Waiting for peace

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