The mayor revised the forecast 2009: the GDP of the Russian Federation will decrease by 0.2%, instead of the previously expected growth by 2.4%

According to the new calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2009 will decrease by 0.2%, instead of growth by 2.4% according to the previous forecast, Interfax reports with reference to a source in one of the departments of the financial and economic bloc.

The Ministry of Economic Development increased the prognosis of the fall in industrial production in 2009 to 5.7% against a decrease by 3.2% according to the previous forecast. In addition, according to the new forecast of the ministry, investments in fixed assets in 2009 will decrease by 1.7% against previously expected growth by 1.4%.

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The Ministry also increased the unemployment forecast in 2009 from 7.4% to 7.5%. A decrease in average real wage this year will be 2.7%.

Export will fall by 43%, import - by 16%. At the same time, the balance of the trade balance in 2009 will remain positive in the amount of 24.1 billion dollars in 2009.

In 2008, the economic growth of Russia amounted to 6%.

Recall that the Ministry of Economic Development revised the macroeconomic forecast for 2009 based on the average annual oil price $ 41 per barrel in 2009, the average annual rate of 35.1 rubles per dollar and inflation of 13%.

As the head of the Ministry of Elvira Nabiullina explained on Monday, currently forecasts of development of the world economy "vary from zero to minus, but we offer to take as a basis a pessimistic version." In particular, the decline in the world economy, according to this forecast, is estimated at -0.3%, while the economy in the United States will develop with a -2.6%indicator, and in the eurozone --2.2%.

The tendency to revise forecasts among economists around the world intensified in early January. So, according to new calculations, the fall of the US economy in 2009 may be more than 2%. Many of developing countries, perhaps, besides China, are also threatened with negative indicators. According to RBC Daily , the leading economist Oxford Economics Rhine Newton Smith, Chinese GDP growth will fall to 5.6%, Brazil - up to 0.8%, and Russia will go a minus by 0.8%.

At the end of January, the International Monetary Fund is also going to lower the estimates of macroeconomic prospects for the current year. The head of the IMF Dominic Stross-Kan noted that the indicators can fall by at least half or to a whole percentage point.