Inhabited island of stability

"Two scenarios of the development of events are becoming more and more relevant. The first: the collapse of the country will happen so rapidly that it will be possible to take control of the protest of people who are dissatisfied with the surrounding mess, only in every region separately. Each of them will stand out their own political leaders, which will not necessarily be accepted by neighbors. The second scenario will be able to avoid, but ... in this case, only a dictatorship can become. At first, it will be difficult to recognize it, since the first step of the new rulers will find popular support - the property and assets of the oligarchs will be nationalized, and the flows of capital are concentrated in a single center ... "

This editorial forecast , published in the last issue of the Russian Reporter magazine, is formally devoted not to Russia, but to Ukraine - the name of this country, for the fidelity of the experiment, I removed from the cited passage. But the more you read the text, the better you understand that the editors wanted to say not about the neighboring country.

Journalists of the reporter discovered in Ukraine the lack of a split to the east and the West, universal contempt for Kyiv political elites, the alienation of ordinary Ukrainians from the state and politics. This means that the usual scheme of the split, which has been scared by Ukrainians for so many years, does not work, and instead of it is proposed a universal scheme of universal discontent and division - a scheme that works in a federal state is much better than in unitary.

In addition, speaking of the second scenario - the dictatorship scenarios - the authors admit that I will have to sacrifice Ukrainian democracy (I also had to leave these words "for later" in order to maintain the purity of the comment). In Russia, you will not have to sacrifice anything - either the victory of the mess, or the establishment of a dictatorship followed by the victory of the mess. By the way, there are just the preference of a particular way out and the discussions in the country's political elite are going on, it is on the issue of adoption and defecting of “tough” decisions that recent like -minded people and consumers of reinforcing resources are pricking.

I am far from the desire to suspect the editors of the "Russian reporter" in the conspiracy, in the desire to publish the apocalyptic scenario of Russian collapse in the Ukrainian decoration. No, this is a completely patriotic edition. She claims that "unlike Russia inside Ukraine, key interests are not the interests of the state." She writes this seriously and does not notice how this is dictated by the tradition of Russian political propaganda of recent years, corporate interests in her own country. There are simply such periods in history - just before the collapse - when an intelligent person sees everything, understands everything, feels everything, but to such an extent does not want to believe in it and recognize his own involvement in what is happening, which easily transfers his conclusions to a neighboring object, moreover, an unusually similar, but by no means necessarily broken by the same principle. And as a result, logic disappears from explanations and conclusions, easily, however, restored when you understand that this was not about others, but about yourself.

I remember how in childhood the wonderful film "The Magic Voice of Jelsomino", shot in the Soviet Union, struck me - and as if about the Soviet Union. The hero of the fairy tale of the Italian communist Gianni Rodari fell into a wonderful country, where the main newspaper was called the "exemplary liar", where goods were sold in stores that were not related to those that were indicated on the signs where it was valor, and to tell the truth by moral and criminal offense. The fact that this cardboard world would necessarily collapse was clear from the first frames of the film - and it collapsed, and the newspaper "Exemplary False" disappeared, and in the stores they changed signs, and people became normal. I was not surprised as the film as the people who shot him, and most importantly, to those who allowed him. These great censors, chasing each line, every letter, every surname, simply could not understand that it was about them, that this is the necrologist. But the fact that the Soviet Union will not be soon will not be a ten -year -old schoolboy, watching that film on TV. It only remained to wait.

With exactly the same feelings, I now read articles about someone else's collapse in the Russian media. With exactly the same feelings, I look at the people who come out from the viewing of the "inhabited island." The film, representing an almost documentary cast of modern Russia with its essentially anonymous power that appears simply because someone wants one or this “unknown father”, shot on the basis of a book that placed the population of the population of the population into a television center, demonstrating the insignificance and meaninglessness of the existence of a political elite, for unknown reasons, for unknown reasons, for unknown reasons, is about the state, about which he talks about. And viewed by people who, after going to the cinema, will drink tea at the television screens and watch the program "Time"-well, exactly like the heroes of the "inhabited island"!

Again, I am far from the idea of ​​believing that the filming group of the "inhabited island" is the conspirators. No, in Russia, and besides me, there are many people who are in the constant search for conspirators. I have no doubt that people who worked on the script and filming of the film think that this is just fantastic. And their viewers for the time being, too, are also inclined to count and stubbornly not to notice any coincidences between science fiction and their own life.

So, of course, easier. "The magical voice of Jelsomino" is a fairy tale. "Inhabited island" - science fiction. But only in fact the opposite is true. This Soviet Union was a gloomy fairy tale that should not have been realized into reality and which cannot be told to children. This is today's Russia - a fantastic, phantasmagoric country, predicted by the Strugatsky. And “Jelsomino” and “Inhabited Island” are not a fairy tale and fantasy, but an ordinary, always true truth. That's all the point.