Free fall. Economics

Analysts of Medvedev vs. Putin's analysts

“Changes are inevitable in the program of planned anti-crisis measures,” experts at the Institute of Contemporary Development (its Board of Trustees is headed by President Medvedev) believe. This is stated in the report "The Economic Crisis in Russia: An Expert View". From its text follows: the scale of the crisis is much wider than it seems to the government. At the same time, it is obvious that there is no single anti-crisis center in the country, and the views of the Kremlin and the White House on the situation in the country seriously diverge. The New Times carefully read the report and chose what seemed especially important

Anti-crisis measures, the report says, look rather abstract so far. According to a well-known Russian tradition, these are directions rather than roads.

About measures

A gradual increase in gas tariffs in 2009 is envisaged: 5% - from January 1, 7% - from April 1, 7% - from July 1, 6.2% - from October 1. The average annual growth of regulated tariffs for rail transportation in 2009 is limited to 12.4%, for thermal energy - 18%.

Maintaining the liquidity of the banking sector: by the end of 2009, the volume of resources allocated for subordinated loans, unsecured auctions and reorganization of banks will amount to 11.2-11.5% of GDP (up to 4.7 trillion rubles).

A limit was set for the provision of state guarantees (up to 300 billion rubles), the volume of additional support for small businesses (the state budget - 10.5 billion rubles and VEB - 30 billion rubles), as well as additional capitalization of Rosagroleasing (25 billion rubles) and Rosselkhozbank (45 billion rubles) . All other regulatory prerequisites for the annual forecast are formulated at the “verbal level”.

About the question price

In total, 10 trillion rubles have been reserved for the implementation of anti-crisis measures. This amount is formed from the federal budget (about 3 trillion rubles), reserve funds (more than 2 trillion rubles) and the Central Bank (almost 4.6 trillion rubles).

The preliminary estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2008, published by the Bank of Russia, is indicative. The outflow of capital in the fourth quarter of 2008 reached $130.5 billion, the outflow in December - $50 billion. Since the publication of this indicator in 1994, this is an absolute maximum.

In terms of attracting foreign capital, the economy returned to at least 2006. According to the results of last year, banks reduced the attraction of capital by 7.9 times, the non-financial sector - by 1.6 times. A direct consequence of this is the need to adjust the parameters of the already adopted 2009 budget. These examples are sufficient to conclude that changes are inevitable in the program of planned anti-crisis regulatory measures.

About risks

First, there was a risk of emasculation of the content of anti-crisis measures. This is already noticeable in the stock market, which is dominated by state brokers (VEB accounts for up to a third of the total turnover in certain trading sessions on Russian stock exchanges), and in the banking sector as a whole: the net losses of Russian banks reached 85 billion rubles on December 1, 2008 (from beginning of 2008, losses increased 85 times).

Secondly, the risk of property redistribution (quite natural in times of crisis) in our conditions takes on an additional burden: the danger of disrupting the fundamental balance between the state and the market economy, when private property becomes unequal and discriminated against state property. And this, alas, is not a theoretical exercise, but an extrapolation of plans to "enter" the capital of private companies directly or through the purchase of their securities.

Thirdly, the strengthening of the role of state property is one of the dominant trends of the 2000s. By the beginning of 2008, the state had concentrated at least 40-45% of the shares of Russian companies. According to experts, in the course of the implementation of the anti-crisis program, this share may increase by another 9-10%.

About the exchange rate of the national currency

Having spent about $100 billion in August-November 2008 to maintain the ruble exchange rate, from November 11, the Bank of Russia was forced to start a "smooth" weakening of the national currency by gradually expanding the corridor of acceptable fluctuations in the value of the dual-currency basket. In November-December 2008 this corridor changed 16 times, in January 2009 - 9 times. As a result, as of January 21, 2008 and in relation to the maximum recorded in July 2008, the ruble exchange rate fell by 44.5% against the dollar, by 17.5% against the euro, and by 29.2% against the basket of currencies . The international reserves of the Russian Federation have also noticeably decreased - by a third compared to the record value of $598.1 billion, reached on August 8, 2008. According to the head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, as of January 20, 2009, the volume of international reserves amounted to $397.5 billion.

On the smooth devaluation of the ruble

It will be necessary to follow the chosen line of behavior of the Central Bank in difficult circumstances. First, a by-product was an increase in the ruble value of external corporate debt by more than 20%, which means additional costs for Russian borrowers in the amount of 250 billion rubles. Secondly, it is very likely that the ruble will fluctuate around its current values ​​for several months, but it may also noticeably strengthen.

On Structural Imbalance

There is no visible solution to the primary structural problem - the elimination of the growing gap between the volume of loans and savings in the non-financial sector. According to the Center for Strategic Studies of the Bank of Moscow, this imbalance was: as of October 1, 2008 - 3.8 trillion rubles, as of November 1, 2008 - already 4.6 trillion rubles (which exceeds the entire capital of the banking system by 1.1 trillion rubles). The inertial forecast for 2009 suggests that the "credit hole" will deepen by another 3 trillion rubles. Obviously, the bank debt of the population will also increase (as of November 1, 2008 - 78% of all bank savings). The fundamental question is: where to get liabilities for banks, that is, the funds raised necessary for subsequent lending to the economy?

About tax policy

With all the limited possibilities of tax policy instruments, there are certain reserves for their use in a crisis. The burden on business (especially taking into account the recession in industry and the decline in investment and consumer demand) remains high: from each ruble, entrepreneurs give the state 29 kopecks, and oilmen - up to 63 kopecks.

On the situation in the regions

Among the regions, Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk, Samara, Voronezh, Vologda regions, Perm and Primorsky regions were in the most alarming position. If the emerging trends develop, in these regions the level of general unemployment will reach 40-50%, and in a number of single-industry towns even higher rates.

About employment support

The federal budget for 2009 allocated 54 billion rubles for measures to support employment. Calculations show that this money will be enough for the monthly payment of the maximum possible unemployment benefit during the year for 918 thousand people. It can already be concluded that with the most optimistic forecasts of an increase in the number of registered unemployed (according to the estimates of the Ministry of Health and Social Development, this figure will increase from 1.5 to 2-2.5 million people during the year), the allocated resources will not be enough.

Conclusion

Today, the main problem in economic policy is the lack of a unified anti-crisis policy.