Translated material
Invitation in a special form
The European Union is not confident in the President of Belarus
The issue of participation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the founding summit of the Eastern Partnership program on May 7 in Prague can be resolved following the visit of EU Commissioner for External Relations and Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner to Minsk on April 13-14. “During this visit, the form of Belarus’ participation in the summit will also be discussed,” a source in the European Commission told Vremya Novostey on condition of anonymity. Benita Ferrero-Waldner's visit to Minsk was expected in March, but was canceled at the last moment, according to Brussels, “due to the overloaded work schedule” of the European Commissioner.Our interlocutor in Brussels said that the Europeans will extend an invitation to Lukashenko “in a special form to give him the opportunity to make a convenient decision.” Ms. Ferrero-Waldner, for her part, according to our source, “is committed to the full participation of the Belarusian side in the summit.” As Russian expert on Europe Evgenia Voiko, who is now in Brussels, explained to Vremya Novostei, Ms. Ferrero-Waldner “heads an informal bloc of supporters of the offensive line in the European Union.” The goal of this policy is “to make the European Union the third, along with Russia and the United States, subject of politics in the post-Soviet space.” At the end of the year, according to the expert, a change in the composition of the European Commission is expected: “For Ferrero-Waldner, Lukashenko’s involvement in the European project is proof of the success of her tenure in office.”
As part of the Eastern Partnership program, adopted by Brussels in December 2008 on the initiative of Poland and Sweden, six post-Soviet countries - Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine - were offered political rapprochement and economic assistance. The project does not stipulate their possible membership in the European Union in any way, but generous support is provided: about 600 million euros in 2009-2013. However, Brussels strictly links Belarus' participation in this program with further steps towards democratization of the country.
The new US administration supported the project, Moscow's reaction was different. There were already notes of discontent on Smolenskaya Square. This is also due to the fact that Brussels is putting pressure on Minsk on the issue of recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It can be assumed that Belarusians will lose European help if, contrary to Brussels’ position, they recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Leading expert of the Russian Center for Political Current Affairs Maxim Minaev reminded VN that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has already taken several important steps towards the European Union: “He has released prominent oppositionists and is not yet in a hurry to recognize the regions that have broken away from Georgia.” According to the expert, Alexander Lukashenko “skillfully maneuvers between Moscow and Brussels.”
The European Union officially included Belarus in the Eastern Partnership program on March 20, extending for nine months a six-month moratorium on the application of visa restrictions introduced in 2006 on about fifty Belarusian officials, including the president. On March 28, the foreign ministers of the EU countries at an informal meeting decided “without reservations” to invite Lukashenko to the summit in Prague. The foreign ministers of Sweden and Germany opposed this approach, and their Dutch colleague Maxim Verhagen warned that he would “publicly expose” the Belarusian leader if he arrived.
In 1998, at an economic forum in the Swiss town of Crans-Montana, one of the European participants publicly accused Lukashenko of “dictatorship,” and he defiantly left the hall. The Belarusian leader is unlikely to want to experience this again. “There is no sharp split in the European Union over its presence at the May summit, but the dividing line is clear: the majority of Eastern European countries are not at all against it, the “old” Europe is for the most part not enthusiastic, but shifts responsibility for decision-making to European officials,” explains Minaev.
“Delaying the issue is an image move, because Brussels has always loved to talk about human rights. Therefore, Foreign Minister Martynov or Prime Minister Sidorsky may go to Prague,” suggested VN’s interlocutor. But Minsk has other priorities. They understand that within the framework of the Eastern Partnership they will not receive such serious financial injections into the national economy. “Belarusians want to know whether serious European business will come to their market. But Brussels cannot guarantee investment,” the expert recalled. And he made a forecast: “If Lukashenko does not see serious economic benefits from this program, then by the fall he may curtail his participation in it.”