Translated material
Russia dependent
The demographic crisis will replace the economic one
Russian experts in the field of social policy and demography believe that even the current situation on the labor market can be considered quite favorable compared to what awaits the economy and society in the next 15 years. At least, the twelfth UN report on human development, “Russia in the Face of Demographic Challenges,” presented at the end of last week, makes very pessimistic forecasts regarding the age structure of society. If until now the situation has been mitigated by an insignificant social burden on the working-age part of society, then in the near future, according to demographers’ forecasts, the country will face a sharp increase in social dependents with a large-scale reduction in the working-age population. “We are entering an acute phase of the demographic crisis,” said one of the leaders of the UN research team, director of the Institute of Demography of the State University - Higher School of Economics, Anatoly Vishnevsky.Scientists believe that the first symptoms that the period of growth in the working-age population in the country has ended were already noticed in 2006-2007 in the form of a slight reduction in the number of working-age citizens. “This was just the beginning of a sharp and long-term decline,” demographers say. Referring to Rosstat data and demographers’ estimates, UN experts predict that by 2025, the loss of working-age citizens in Russia could range from 14 million to 17 million people. “Although now everyone is concerned about the problems of unemployment, when we emerge from the financial crisis and economic growth begins, we will feel an acute shortage of labor resources,” says Mr. Vishnevsky.
The social, economic and political situation in the country, according to him, in the near future may be aggravated by an increase in the number of dependents - the elderly and children. And if until now the Russian authorities have received a kind of “demographic dividend” related to the peculiarities of the age pyramid (in 2007, a historical minimum burden on the working-age population was recorded - 578 dependents per 1000 workers), then already in 2015 the social burden will increase. It is expected that in six years there will already be 700 dependent people, and in 2025 there will be 822 people of disabled age for every thousand workers.
Moreover, a large share of the so-called social dependents will be pensioners: the share of people over 60 years old by 2025 will increase from 17% (2006) to more than 23%, and the elderly (over 80 years old) to 3.5%. But the number of new births, on the contrary, may change for the worse. The current low birth rate (1.5 million babies per year versus 2.2-2.5 million in the 1980s), scientists believe, is even beneficial for the state in terms of age structure and receiving “demographic dividends.” Mr. Vishnevsky associates the positive dynamics in the number of births in recent years, in particular, with a fairly large number of women of childbearing age (in 2002-2003 it reached a historical maximum of 40 million) and an extremely favorable situation on the “marriage market”. However, the number of women of reproductive age is declining. In general, the number of women 15-49 years old will decrease by 5 million by 2015, and by 7 million by 2025. Moreover, starting from 2010, the number of women at the age of highest reproductive activity will decrease (for women 18-29 years account for 75-80% of all births).
In addition, demographers are concerned about the upcoming sharp reduction in the number of young people of military age in Russia. “It is difficult to imagine how the Ministry of Defense will resolve this issue,” said Anatoly Vishnevsky. Moreover, according to him, “we are talking about people who have already been born,” so it is almost impossible to fundamentally change the situation.
Demographers note that, in general, such age ratios have never existed in the country in the past, and all historically established economic and social systems (health care, education, employment, pensions) are adapted to a much younger age structure of society. And in the near future they will need to be reformed.
Sociologists and demographers believe that the attempts already made by the state to influence the human potential of the country are, to say the least, not very effective. “This study showed that during the years of stability we did not solve, but accumulated problems,” said Evgeniy Gontmakher, head of the Center for Social Policy at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, at the presentation of the UN report. Until now, the state has carried out social expenditures not as an investment in the long-term development of human capital, but as payments that are not flexible and do not, by and large, affect a person’s economic situation, says Andrei Markov, head of social programs for Russia at the World Bank. In particular, according to researchers, the new demographic and migration policies have not justified themselves. According to UN experts, maternity capital, for example (and at the end of last week the millionth certificate was issued), is only a “typical form of a one-time bonus.” “From the point of view of long-term impact on fertility, such measures are considered by the international expert community to be among the least effective,” the report says.
In addition, according to Sergei Zakharov, deputy director of the Institute of Demography of the State University Higher School of Economics, officials ignore changes in society’s attitude towards marriage, its structure, and the transformation of the image of the mother. According to demographers, it is possible to influence the birth rate by involving as many groups of women of childbearing age as possible. A fairly common type of new image of a mother, according to Mr. Zakharov, is a woman of 30 years old, divorced and in a second unregistered union. However, her current partner, as a rule, is not the biological father of her child. This full-time woman does not intend to quit her job entirely to care for her second child. “Often this woman has to care for elderly parents or relatives,” Oksana Sinyavskaya, deputy director of the Institute of Independent Social Policy, added to the collective image of the “new mother.” Scientists believe that it is necessary to adapt social policy, in particular to develop a system of social institutions for caring for children and the elderly, and the development of flexible forms of women’s employment, specifically for this type of modern woman.
Experts note that both the concept of Russia’s demographic policy until 2025 and the strategy for the country’s socio-economic development until 2020 will remain “political phantoms” without making radical changes in the part related to the development of human capital. According to representatives of the UN Development Program, a detailed report, presenting not only an analysis of the situation, but also possible ways to solve demographic problems, will be sent to the Russian government. However, apparently, the researchers have little hope of being heard. “We tried to write a report that would be understandable to everyone, and we hope that people in high positions in the country will read it. But we are faced with the fact that information does not reach the recipients due to their unpreparedness,” said Anatoly Vishnevsky, who believes that the information prepared by UN experts is “inconvenient in political terms.”