An increase in wholesale prices will not cancel their fall in retail

World oil prices yesterday exceeded the threshold of $60 per barrel. Domestic Russian spot prices for petroleum products tied to them also made a leap upward, while retail prices for motor fuel continue to decline. Experts do not expect a change in the downward trend - in their opinion, the oil and petroleum products market is still far from reaching the bottom.

Yesterday, during trading on the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil for June delivery exceeded $60 per barrel for the first time since November 2008. The price of Brent oil rose by $0.88 to $58.36 per barrel. Among the main reasons for rising prices, analysts point to a significant increase in oil supplies to China in April: China considered prices low enough to fill its oil storage facilities. Many investors took China's actions as a signal that the oil market had hit rock bottom.

In the falling Russian oil products market, the rise in world oil prices caused a stir. According to the latest report from Rosstat, from April 27 to May 3, consumer prices for petroleum products continued to decline. Prices for gasoline and diesel fuel decreased in 38 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the average price of gasoline in the Russian Federation decreased by 0.8%, for diesel fuel - by 1.3%. However, according to operational data from the Cortes information and analytical center as of May 12, against the backdrop of declining retail prices, wholesale prices went up sharply at the end of last week. Cortez explains this by the attractiveness of the export alternative: since April 30, world prices (CIF North-Western Europe) for 95-grade gasoline have increased by $70, for diesel fuel - by $30, and for fuel oil - by $15 per ton.

Despite the increase from May 1 in the export duty on oil from $110 to $137.7 per ton, and on light oil products to $105.1 per ton, producers tried to send maximum volumes of petroleum products to non-CIS countries, which caused a rapid rise in prices on the domestic market. During the first week of May, prices for diesel fuel and fuel oil from the Ufa Refinery dealers increased by 1 thousand rubles, and for A-92 gasoline - by 2.2 thousand rubles. per ton. On average in the Russian Federation for the week, the increase in spot prices for A-92 gasoline was 3.8%, for A-95 - 0.9%, for fuel oil - 5.72%.

Since the beginning of the year, the dynamics of domestic prices for petroleum products reflects fluctuations in world prices and changes in the export duty on oil. For example, in January, a ton of A-92 gasoline was sold for 10,833 rubles, in February - already for 17,208 rubles. After the March fall to 15,111 rubles. per ton by April prices increased to 17,024 rubles. per ton, after which they gradually decreased. At the beginning of May, prices began to rise: by May 12 they rose from 15,800 to 15,918 rubles. per ton.

However, as Cortes development and marketing director Pavel Strokov explained to Kommersant, the resumption of price growth cannot indicate that the market has pushed off the bottom. In his opinion, fundamental factors do not allow us to talk about a change in trend, and the production cuts announced by OPEC have not yet compensated for the drop in demand: “There are no longer free capacities in the world - all storage facilities are filled with oil,” recalls Mr. Strokov. The rise in oil prices is a speculative surge; the decline will continue and may reach the bottom by the end of summer, when the increase in seasonal fuel consumption will not be so noticeable. As for the domestic market for petroleum products, according to Mr. Strokov, “now all producers are looking at the cost of oil with particular hope - they need at least some reason to raise prices.” According to Cortez's observations, since the beginning of 2009, when the export duty began to be revised monthly, a speculative surge in wholesale prices was recorded at the beginning of each month, but within a week prices returned to a level slightly higher than the starting level.

Cortez believes that sellers will continue to use the change in export duties to rock the market: from June 1, the duty will rise to almost $150 per ton. But as for retail prices, the accumulated margin still allows them to continue their downward path.

Alexander Kommersant-Gudkov

Gasoline pushed off, but not from the bottom