In April, observers recorded a slight drop in housing supply prices, close to the statistical error. The volume of supply continues to grow in Moscow and the Moscow region, but mainly due to low-liquid properties that are not in demand even at relatively low prices. And the number of real transactions in April is the highest since the beginning of the year.

Who's ready?

Although prices fell quite a bit last month, and the number of transactions on the Moscow market more than doubled the February level, it is too early to talk about a way out of the crisis. The primary market is practically standing still; potential buyers do not risk investing in unfinished buildings. There are no separate statistics on sales in the primary and secondary markets, but experts give disappointing estimates for developers.

“New buildings account for only 1% of demand,” categorically states Pavel Zdradovsky, general director of Paul’s Yard. “New buildings in which apartments are now being purchased are ready-made houses, where the risk of unfinished construction is excluded. Therefore, apartments in completed houses are now equated to secondary housing."

At the same time, according to the MIAN company, prices for new buildings fell three times less in April than for secondary apartments. This paradox can be explained simply: individuals interested in quickly selling their real estate set prices that are more or less close to reality, while developers hardly change the stated prices, but make significant concessions in the bargaining process. However, apartments in finished (or almost finished) houses are sold at almost the stated prices: this product is already becoming scarce.

Growth at the poles

Real estate bureau "Agent 002" notes an increase in sales growth simultaneously in the cheapest segment - rooms in communal apartments (+4.3%) and in the most expensive - luxury apartments costing over $3 million (+8.7%). With communal apartments, everything is clear: with a half-life mortgage, rooms have to be bought by those who until recently were counting on apartments. But the growth in demand for expensive apartments is a new phenomenon.

“At the end of April, there was an increase in the average transaction budget in the high-end real estate market and an increase in effective demand for apartments in the price range of $20-25 thousand per sq. m. In past months, the bulk of requests fell on apartments with a price per square meter of $11-15 thousand. “, states the general director of Kalinka-Realty, Ekaterina Rumyantseva. “At the same time, today there are practically no players and investors in the market, only end buyers remain.”

Luxury housing developers are also seeing an increase in sales at their properties. “In January-February, the volume of transactions was one or two apartments per month and increased to five by April. Compared to March, there was no reduction in prices; the cost of apartments in the Stanislavsky Eleven facility ranges from $10 thousand to $15 thousand per sq. m. m,” says Natalya Shichanina, head of sales at the Eleven Stanislavsky house. Commercial Director of Capital Group Alexey Belousov (the company builds both luxury and business-class houses) provides even more radical figures: “In April of this year, the amount of signed contracts increased five times compared to previous months.”

Let us note that both in the elite sector and in the business class, mainly properties that are in the final stages of construction are sold. “It is not possible to overcome this crisis of confidence in the near future,” notes Ekaterina Rumyantseva.

End of correction?

A serious increase in supply on the secondary market in Moscow, and especially the Moscow region, has not yet led to a sharp decline in prices. At the beginning of the crisis, many observers said that the real price barrier at which the market would become active again was $1 thousand per sq. m. m. It is now clear that buyers can only dream of such a barrier.

“Mainly, the increase in supply was achieved due to the entry of the cheapest housing into the market. In Moscow, in the economy class segment, supply growth was 44.7%. Quality housing, on the contrary, is leaving the market: the supply volume of business class apartments decreased by 4.9%, luxury apartments - by 6.4%,” states Dmitry Taganov, head of the analytical center of the Inkom corporation. We can conclude that low-income segments of the population are solving their crisis problems by selling housing, but owners of expensive real estate are not, as expected, going to give it up in order to plug financial holes in their business.

This allows observers to draw rather optimistic conclusions. “The dynamics of cost indicators at the end of April indicate that the price correction is close to completion in both the primary and secondary markets,” comments Alexey Kudryavtsev, head of the marketing department of the Steklov Institute of Mechanical Engineering. “Price reduction in the primary market from 1% (in economy class) to 1.4 % (in business class) allows us to predict that the amplitude of fluctuations will disappear over the next two months, and with some delay, similar trends will appear in the secondary real estate market."

Andrey Voskresensky

Residential property prices in Moscow (April)

Primary marketSecondary market (thousand roubles.
/ sq. m) Decrease to
March (%) (thousand rubles
/ sq. m) Decrease to
March (%)

Typical housing	No in sale	—	144	-3.5
Economy class	113.8	-1	161.8	-4.7
Business Class	166.2	-1.4	216.1	-5.1
Luxury housing	538.6	-1.3	378.7	-5.5
On average Moscow	160.4	-1.2	154.2	-4.3

Housing at the stage of mistrust