Sberbank: Real Estate will collapse in the fall

The director of the financing department of construction projects "Sberbank" Alexei Chuvin believes that in the fall, both banks and developers may have a very difficult situation. The banks will accumulate overdue debts and there will be too many real estate objects taken as a bail, the newspaper Vedomosti writes.

Speaking at the conference of the Institute of Adam Smith "Real Estate in Russia", Chuvin said: "Now many banks take real estate that they have credited as compensation. If they have difficulties with capital, they will be forced to lose these assets now, without waiting for good times."

This will lead to the fact that the proposal in the real estate market will seriously grow, and there is simply nowhere to take an adequate increase in demand. In addition, in the fall, the lack of liquidity will force the development companies themselves to start a mass sale, which will lead to the next drop in real estate prices. Developers will sell cheaply, just to get at least some money, Chuvin believes.

- In May, a serious reduction in the demand for Moscow real estate was recorded
- the growth of overdue debts will provoke a second wave of banking crisis in the fall

In Sberbank, loans to builders amount to 600 billion rubles, says Chuvin, and the delay on them on April 1 was only 0.7%. In the total corporate portfolio, these loans account for about 15%. And two of the 130 such loans - the companies "Capital Group" and "Alpi" - are repaid by real estate.

In other banks, the situation with the delay of developers looks somewhat different. VTB has 14% of the corporate portfolio for construction, this is $ 12.79 billion at the beginning of the year. Some loans are repaid with assets. In addition, the bank actually takes 51% of the system “system” for debts (a debt to VTB - 23.5 billion rubles). VTB structures also received 5.5% of the peak company due to the fact that the company did not increase the loan security on time.

So, in the "Absolute Bank" overdue debt of developers is up to 40% of the delay in corporate debts. “Not all developers are the same. It is difficult for those who had growth disease: long -term investments were funded by short -term money, their own funds were almost not invested, land banks were created. Banks sometimes closed their eyes while the market grew up,” says Anatoly Maksakov, a member of the Bank Absolute Bank.

In MDM-Bank, loans to developers make up less than 10% of the portfolio and delay on them no higher than average, says Alexei Drobot MDM-Bank. “We stopped entering new projects in the fall of 2007, reduced the portfolio by about 1 billion rubles. It saved us from defaults,” the shotgun rejoices.

Of the bankers and developers surveyed by the newspaper, not everyone shares the opinion of the representative of Sberbank. So, a member of the Board "Unicredit Bank" Kirill Zhukov-Emelyanov believes that it is almost impossible to predict the situation in the development sector, it depends on the state of the economy. And the President of Mirax Group Sergei Polonsky called Chuvin's reasoning "the market manipulating" and essentially refused to comment.

In May, a serious reduction in the demand for Moscow real estate was recorded in May

Meanwhile, according to Paul's Yard, in May a serious decrease in activity in the real estate market was recorded, especially in the segment of city residential real estate.

According to the statistics of appeals, the demand for urban residential real estate compared to April indicators fell by 75%, by suburban real estate - by 34%, experts report.

According to Paul's Yard, Director General Pavel Zdovdovsky, the demand has completely shifted towards the secondary market. "The ratio of demand throughout the market today is 99% by 1%, where 99% of the total market volume is a secondary market and 1% of new buildings," he says.

The growth of overdue debts will provoke a second wave of a banking crisis in the fall

At the end of March, Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin made such a “forecast” . “Now we expect a second wave of problems in the financial system. We need to directly talk about diagnoses - this will be a reflected wave due to non -return of loans by the real sector of the economy. Someone was holding on, believing that the market would wake up and will sell products,” he said at the expanded college of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, adding that there are no serious grounds for growing demand for products of the real sector.

Kudrin’s opinion is shared by the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin. "Banks that now issue loans, including under the pressure of the government, will collide in the fall with the problem of non -return. And how many banks can support the state through subordinated loans and contracting - 120 maximum. Thus, 90% of banks may be under threat," Shokhin said at a meeting of a tripartite commission to regulate social and labor relations.