Translated material
No sleep, no vacation
Vladimir Putin put state banks in a credit position
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, having seriously forked out money to support the banking sector (the government allocated 700 billion rubles for this purpose), demanded a return payment. He called on top managers of state banks to forget about summer vacations and, by the sweat of their brow, to fill the real sector with no less real loans worth hundreds of billions of rubles by October 1.The budget meeting that Mr. Putin held at the White House yesterday was initially fraught with some intrigue. The heads of almost all large state banks - Sberbank, VEB, VTB, Rosselkhozbank, Gazprombank - were seated at the table with the ministers called to discuss the main parameters of the draft budget 2010. Obviously, for some other purpose than simple familiarization with the macroeconomic plans of the cabinet. It turned out that they came for a new anti-crisis “envelope” - additional funds of state support in the amount of 300 billion rubles. In response, Vladimir Putin decided to demand guarantees that the money would actually go into the economy.
“The main problem today is the availability of loans,” he announced to state bankers. The Prime Minister somewhat irritably recalled that the state is being destroyed in helping the banking sector, while in the real sector little has increased from this. “The government and the law have prepared state guarantees for lending at your request,” he reproached the bankers. - The state has taken on your risks. And you should respond by lowering interest rates and channeling money directly into the economy.”
“I am addressing first of all the heads of banks with state participation. I can’t say the same to those who work without state participation, such as MDM Bank, Alfa and others,” he regretfully made a reservation and continued: “Your loan portfolio in July should be increased by at least 150 billion rubles.” ., until September 1 by the same amount, that is, up to 300 billion, and until October 1 it was increased to 450 billion rubles. I ask First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Ivanovich Shuvalov, together with the heads of financial institutions, to monitor this work and until it is carried out properly, I ask the heads of financial institutions not to plan summer vacations,” the prime minister warned those present.
Having solved one disciplinary problem, Mr Putin moved on to the next - budget execution. “Our constant disease is underfinancing of the economy and related industries in the first half of the year and emergency work in the second half of the year, especially at the end of the year, which creates certain difficulties for the real sector of the economy and increases the danger of a surge in inflation due to a sharp increase in the money supply at the end of the year,” - he recalled the long-standing government illness. “The key ministries and departments, which are the main budget recipients that spend the main budget resources - the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Health and Social Development, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Transport - must have real, and not just on paper, cash plans,” he demanded He. And he ordered the Ministry of Finance to personally report weekly to the head of government on the execution of the budget by ministries.
Speaking about the budget for next year, the Prime Minister emphasized the task of finding additional income. And he presented alarming news about the indexation of some payments and fees, which, in his opinion, today no longer ensure the functionality of the state machine. Although he specifically made a reservation that it is necessary to resort to the next fiscal withdrawals very carefully, so as not to ultimately harm the economy and citizens.
We will probably find out quite soon what kind of increase in payments and fees awaits businesses and citizens. The country's chief financier, Alexei Kudrin, said after the meeting that the Ministry of Finance will present the main directions of tax and budget policy for 2010-2012 by mid-July. As for anti-crisis prospects and the fate of the domestic budget, Mr. Kudrin remains a pessimist. According to his assessment, despite the prime minister’s requirement to focus on a future budget deficit of no more than 2-3% of GDP, this will not happen next year. The deficit will exceed even the planned 5%. The head of the Ministry of Finance expects a reduction to 2-3% only by 2013.
Mr. Kudrin is not happy about rising oil prices either. Tormented by budgetary torments, he does not want to succumb to an unjustified sense of optimism and suspects oil prices of being severely “overheated.”
The government may increase the amount of state support for the economy provided for in the budget for 2010-2012. Alexey Kudrin also announced this at a briefing following the meeting. “Previously, we believed that we would need less support, but now we have come to the conclusion that incentive measures should be partially preserved and, in addition, we should see that key budget programs - in the field of the defense complex, infrastructure construction, social support - are underwent optimization to a minimum extent," he said.
Commenting on the results of the meeting, Mr. Kudrin said that “in general, there was a discussion of principles and approaches to budget formation.” “Today we have not made final decisions, this is an interim meeting to prepare for the meeting of the budget commission, which will take place in a week, according to the forecast of socio-economic development,” he said and added: “We must more clearly take into account the international forecasts and assessments that have been made.” in the last two weeks."
The Finance Minister recalled that “agencies and international financial organizations have updated their forecasts, usually towards the worse.” There was also no final decision made on the issue of tariffs for natural monopolies. “The tariff policy must cover the costs of natural monopolies, and on the other hand, we must proceed from the fact that these are the costs of enterprises,” the head of the Ministry of Finance emphasized. “There is a very difficult balance here, which has not been fully worked out today,” Mr. Kudrin admitted.
The Ministry of Economic Development has worsened the forecast for the fall of Russia's GDP in 2009 to 8.5% from 6% according to the previous working forecast made at the end of April. Such data is contained in the ministry's updated basic forecast, submitted to the Ministry of Finance at the end of last week to calculate the budget for 2010-2012.
The revision of the GDP forecast for 2009 was made due to the negative dynamics of investment in fixed assets with a record drop in May and due to a significant decrease in inventories. At the same time, consumption, according to the ministry, will grow in the second half of the year taking into account the seasonal factor (month to previous month), and investments will continue to decline month-on-month.
According to the forecast, Russian GDP growth in 2010 is expected to be 0.1% (according to the previous forecast 0.5%), in 2011 - 1.5% (3.4%), in 2012 - 3.2 % (4.4%). According to the Ministry of Economic Development, economic growth, taking into account the seasonal component, will begin in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the second quarter. At the same time, GDP growth in annual terms is expected only in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter of 2009.
The Ministry of Economic Development has revised the forecast for oil prices for 2009-2012. In 2009, the average annual price for Urals oil, according to the ministry's estimates, will be $54 per barrel ($45 according to the previous forecast). The Ministry of Economic Development proposes to calculate the budget for 2010 based on the average annual oil price of 55 dollars per barrel (50 according to the previous forecast), for 2011 - 56 dollars per barrel (52), for 2012 - 57 dollars per barrel (53).
The world economy, according to the forecast, will decrease by 2.7% in 2009 (a decrease of 1.4% according to the previous scenario), and will grow by 0.6% in 2010 (an increase of 1.3% according to the previous scenario). The Ministry of Economic Development also worsened the forecast for the fall in industrial production in Russia in 2009 - to 12.5% from 9.3 according to the previous working forecast. In 2010, industrial production, according to the ministry, will also decrease by 0.3% (an increase of 0.3% according to the previous forecast), in 2011 it will increase by 0.8% (an increase of 2.4%), in 2012 will increase by 1.5% (3.0%).
The forecast for the decline in investment in fixed assets for 2009 is 21.4%, for 2010 - 2.8%. In 2011, according to the ministry, investments will grow by 4.1%, in 2012 - by 7.8%.
The inflation forecast for 2009 was reduced from 13 to 12-12.5% due to estimates of a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand. For 2010-2012, forecasts remained the same: 10% in 2010, 7-8% in 2011, 5-7% in 2012.
The Ministry of Economic Development raised its forecasts for exports for 2009-2012 due to rising oil prices and lowered its forecasts for imports due to a more significant drop than expected. In 2009, exports are expected to reach $274 billion (254 billion according to the previous forecast), in 2010 - $294 billion (271 billion), in 2011 - $338 billion (315 billion), in 2012 -- $375 billion (362 billion). Imports in 2009 are projected at $190 billion (203 billion), in 2010 - $200 billion (215 billion), in 2011 - $216 billion (234 billion), in 2012 - 236 billion dollars (259 billion).
Retail trade turnover, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will decrease by 5.8% in 2009, increase by 1.5% in 2010, 2.3% in 2011, and 2.8% in 2012. Real incomes of the population, according to the ministry's forecast, will decrease by 4.1% in 2009, increase by 1.1% in 2010, 2.8% in 2011, and 4.2% in 2012.