The best is, of course, yet to come

The IEA promised the restoration of the oil market by 2012

In three years, according to analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global level of hydrocarbon consumption will fully recover and return to 2008 levels. Experts interviewed by Vremya Novostei believe that demand for raw materials may indeed reach previous levels. However, analysts have differing opinions regarding the cost. Some believe that the price of a barrel will not rise above $90, while others are confident that speculators and lower production volumes will force prices to rise to $200.

According to the IEA report released yesterday on the prospects for the global oil market, in 2012 the daily consumption of “black gold” on the planet will be 86.76 million barrels, which approximately corresponds to the level of consumption in 2008. Moreover, as the agency notes, over the next two years the demand for raw materials will grow at a rate of 0.4 to 1.4% per year. However, then, as the world economy recovers, there will be a sharp increase in consumer interest in energy resources. As for the forecast for the cost of oil, which may be established with such demand, the agency does not give it, recalling only that in 2008 consumption was at the level of 85.76 million barrels per day, while the price then rose to $147. Let’s make a reservation: that Citigroup, which also published its forecasts for the oil market yesterday, significantly increased the estimated cost of a barrel for both the current and next year. According to the bank's analysts, in 2009 the average price of raw materials will be $55.7 (14% more than the previous forecast), and in 2010 - $65 (an increase of 18%).

As Finam Investment Company analyst Alexander Eremin said, a return to this level of consumption indicated by the IEA within three years is quite possible. “In 2008, the balance of supply and demand was lost. One began to fall sharply in relation to the other and a gap formed, which, against the backdrop of economic recovery, may well be eliminated by 2012,” the expert noted. He also suggested that in this case, commodity prices could reach $90 per barrel. An even more optimistic forecast is made by FxPro investment analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich. According to him, the price of oil may jump in three years to $200. “By then we will see a significant reduction in production, including in Russia and other non-OPEC countries, which will lead to a reduction in hydrocarbon supplies to the world market.” “, the expert explained. Analysts also do not exclude the possibility of a new speculative bubble emerging in the hydrocarbon market.

At the same time, the head of the analytical department of the Barrel Investment Company, Sergei Yurov, warned against excessive optimism. “It is impossible to make forecasts for such a long period. The IEA takes the current state of the energy market as its starting point. But the crisis continues, and its second wave, which may occur next year, will lead to such a reduction in consumption that it will simply collapse the demand for raw materials,” the expert explained. In addition, in his opinion, it is impossible to predict the price of oil for such a period, since it is not known how much the dollar will cost in five years. Mr. Yurov recalled that over a ten-year period, from 1998 to 2008, the real demand for “black gold” increased slightly, but the cost of a barrel increased 15 times.

Petr GELTISHCHEV