Transportation in June fell by only 13.4%

Half-year air travel statistics in Russia show a slowing decline in the market: in June it fell just 13.4%, compared with an average drop of 20% in the first months of the year. This phenomenon is temporary, analysts are sure: in the fall the market will most likely begin to fall again.

Yesterday, the Federal Air Transport Agency published air transportation statistics in June and for the entire first half of 2009. According to the department, in the first half of the year, Russian airlines carried 18.75 million passengers (a drop of 18% compared to the first half of 2008). In June, air traffic amounted to 4.62 million passengers - only 13.4% less than in June 2008. Thus, the rate of decline has slowed significantly compared to the beginning of the year, when passenger traffic fell by an average of 20% per month (see chart).

Improved conditions allowed four of the ten largest airlines to show growth. For the second month in a row, Transaero's traffic volume increased (+2%), which in May took second place among Russian airlines from Sibir. Transaero press secretary Sergei Bykhal says that the bulk of the growth came from domestic Russian routes: Transaero has opened eight domestic Russian routes since the beginning of the year. As in May, the volume of transportation at UTair increased (+6.4%). According to the company's general director Andrey Martirosov, the growth is the result of optimization of the route network and aircraft fleet, as well as an increase in the number of transit passengers through Vnukovo.

Growth was shown by two Russian Technologies airlines - Orenburg Airlines (+77%) and Vladivostok Air (+35.8%). The head of the analytical department of the Aviaport agency, Oleg Panteleev, says that Orenburg Airlines' growth is explained by the introduction of an extensive charter program this year. And Vladivostok Air increased its carrying capacity by ordering wide-body Airbus A330s, and it managed to take away a significant part of the passengers of the bankrupt Dalavia, notes Mr. Panteleev.

State Transport Company "Russia" unexpectedly showed the fastest rate of decline in June - 27.7%. The mobile phone of the airline's general director Roman Pakhomov, who recently replaced Sergei Mikhalchenko in this post, did not answer yesterday. The day before, at a meeting of the city government, he linked the problems of the State Customs Committee with the difficulties of competition with low-cost airlines. This may be one of the reasons, Oleg Panteleev admits, but, in addition, the company did not have time to modernize the park, he recalls. The general director of the Infomost agency, Boris Rybak, believes that the “managerial confusion” in the company could not but affect the results of STC Rossiya. Throughout the first half of the year, there were disputes in the company about how State Customs Committee should enter into the Rosavia airline being created by Russian Technologies, and at the same time, the state corporation was strengthening Rossiya with its personnel - even before Mr. Pakhomov, at the beginning of the year, a former deputy head came to the company as deputy general director Ministry of Regional Development Vladimir Blank, with whom, according to Kommersant's sources, Sergei Mikhalchenko did not have a good relationship.

The remaining leaders of the fall remained the same - these are Sibir (a significant part of its passengers switched to the affiliated Globus) and VIM-Avia, which found itself in a difficult financial situation (creditors are demanding several hundred million rubles from the company in court).

Boris Rybak from Infomost believes that the slowdown in the decline in air travel is seasonal. This is confirmed by tourism market statistics: for example, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey, the Russian tourist flow to the country decreased in June compared to the same period last year by 12%. An increase was also recorded in a number of areas: according to the Bulgarian Statistical Institute, the number of Russians visiting this country in June increased by 3%, the Israeli Ministry of Tourism reports a 33% increase in Russian tourist flow in June. Even Thailand, despite political unrest in Bangkok in May, registered an increase in Russian tourists by 5% in June, to 2.5 thousand people. “The wave of mass layoffs that forced people to postpone travel at the beginning of the year has passed, and they decided not to give up their vacation,” says Oleg Panteleev. But experts consider the slowdown in the rate of decline to be a temporary phenomenon. Until the end of August, the rate of decline may decrease to 12% per month, but in the fall, airlines will begin to experience financial problems and some may even stop, Mr. Panteleev believes.

Petr Kommersant-Mironenko, Sergey Kommersant-Sobolev

Airlines leveled off their decline

Airlines leveled off their decline